Category: Media

The Liberal platform is out and it’s time for The Push Back to take a look at where the Liberals are holding the high ground. First, we’ll examine the reaction to the Liberals’ platform launch. Second, we look at wedge issues the Liberals have deployed to push the PCs off-message.

Liberal Platform – Did it Make a Splash?

On Monday, the Ontario Liberals released their platform which committed to a balanced budget by 2026 and laid out the party’s priorities on transit, housing, affordability, health care, and education. With Doug Ford off the campaign trail that day and ambitious promises ranging from a four-day work week to bringing back rent control, the Liberals were hoping for a big media splash. But how did their platform play with Ontario voters?

Ultimately, while the media gobbled up the Liberal platform announcement, the dozens of commitments received only a little more traction than the Liberals’ “buck-a-ride” commitment on May 2. Buck-a-ride remains very popular online, with 50 per cent of social media users expressing support for the policy. Comparatively, the platform was supported by just 36 per cent of social media users.

Mainstream Media

Mainstream media coverage of the announcement remained high over the past 24 hours with 164 TV mentions, 288 radio mentions and 294 online or print mentions. Media coverage peaked shortly after the announcement between 10:00 AM and 12:00 PM on Monday, May 9. The graph below compares coverage of the platform announcement to coverage of buck-a-ride.

Social Media

Social media volume of the Liberal platform announcement has been high – but not as high as one would expect. In the 24 hours following the announcement on May 9, there were 3,110 total mentions – only slightly more than the total 2,457 mentions of the Liberals’ “buck-a-ride” promise in the 24 hours after it was announced on May 2.

Reaction to the Platform

Reaction to the Ontario Liberal platform was moderately positive on social media. 36 per cent of posts were favourable to the platform while only 20 per cent of posts were negative. The remaining 44 per cent of posts were “neutral” – usually journalists reporting on the platform or individual users sharing articles which link to the platform.

The Verdict – Rolling Stone

The release of the Liberal platform dominated the news cycle for the day and continues to make waves as commentators and political parties parse its contents. The fact that the Ontario PCs felt the need to respond to the ODSP piece with their own policy announcement, especially on a day where Ford was not planning to be at a podium, speaks to the compelling manner of the announcement. We will continue to monitor the rollout of the Liberal platform and how various policies are playing with the public.

Driving a Wedge?

Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen the Liberal campaign attempt to drive several wedge issues into this election, including mandatory COVID-19 vaccines in schools and a handgun ban. We’re putting these issues under the microscope to see if these issues are gaining traction online and how the Ontario PC campaign is pushing back.

Wedge 1: COVID Vaccine Mandates in Schools

This past Saturday, the Ontario Liberals pledged to add the COVID-19 vaccine to the immunization schedule for schools. Leader Steven Del Duca argued the “science is settled” on the COVID-19 vaccine and that it should therefore be added to the nine existing universally required vaccines. For these nine other vaccines, parents can exempt their children from mandatory vaccination through a statement of medical exemption or for “reasons of conscience or religious beliefs.”

During his announcement, Del Duca drew a clear distinction between himself and Premier Ford. He argued that the Premier has “waved a white flag of surrender on vaccinations” and that “he’s wanted to just wave a magic wand and for COVID to be over.”

Was the attack effective? Let’s look at the numbers.

Online Analysis

Volume on social media peaked at 289 mentions on May 7, below other top issues of the day. Coverage of vaccine mandates has since dissipated drastically and is now less than 50 mentions per day.

The sentiment on social media was overwhelmingly negative, with 76 per cent of tweets criticizing the Ontario Liberals’ proposal. Negative tweets also received much higher levels of engagement.

Ontario PC Response

Doug Ford and the PCs did not take the bait on this issue. Instead, the PCs opted to push back by reiterating that they would consult with Dr. Kieran Moore, Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, on the need for any further public health measures.

The Verdict – Swing and Miss

Ultimately, due to the initial negative public reaction online against the Liberal announcement, we believe the PCs averted this wedge issue with their measured response. The initial reaction from the public was negative and that was supplemented by critical op-eds from conservative columnists like Brian Lilley. Any further fuel Ford could have put on this fire (e.g., slamming the policy, defending personal health choices) might have given Del Duca the wedge he wanted. Instead, conversation about the topic dissipated quickly, leaving the Liberal campaign scrambling to find another wedge issue.

Wedge 2: Handguns

As discussed in our April 22 edition of The Push Back, the Ontario Liberals previously announced a pledge to ban all handguns in Ontario within the first year of being elected.

It’s clear this commitment was intended to be another wedge by the Liberals to back the PCs into a corner. We’ve seen this tactic at play in previous elections, including most recently by Justin Trudeau in the last federal election.

The below graphs highlight that, not only was the proposed handgun ban a highly talked about issue, but it also received overwhelmingly negative feedback online. The data is also supported by our research showing crime ranked as low as seventh alongside education as an issue of concern for Ontarians.

Online Analysis

Social media volume peaked at 2,798 mentions on April 19. It dissipated relatively quickly the next day, falling to 920 mentions the following day and 657 mentions the day after that.

Sentiment was largely negative on this issue, with 60 per cent of tweets criticizing the Liberal announcement. The majority of the neutral tweets merely reported the announcement without any editorialization. Only five per cent of the tweets expressed support for the handgun ban.

Ontario PC Response

Doug Ford and the PCs pushed back against the Liberal’s proposed handgun ban, stating that he is investing $185 million into fighting guns and gangs and that further investment is needed to support police. However, at least online, the real push back online was from the public who widely rejected the Liberal plan.

The Verdict – Swing and a Miss

Similar to the issue of mandating vaccines in schools, the Ford campaign’s measured response did not allow this issue to dominate the news cycle for an extended period of time. Social media volume dissipated quickly after the Ontario Liberal’s announcement and as shown by the graph below, it has only had one small spike since.

Have any questions about the news out of Queen’s Park this week? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.

Cars and Coalitions

Welcome to the second edition of our weekly Push Back analysis. It’s been a busy first week on the campaign trail, so let’s dive in with our research insights.

Each week, we’re asking Ontario voters whether they think political parties are gaining or losing ground on the issues they care about most. In this edition, we’ve taken a look at the transportation proposals of each party, thoughts on a coalition government, and how Ontarians feel about giving public dollars to big auto.

As the NDP and Liberals battle it out to determine who will be the definitive ABC (anything-but-conservative) vote, both have ruled out any possibility of a coalition.  However, voters themselves seem less wary of a coalition, especially in swing ridings across the GTHA.

Support for Potential Liberal or NDP Minority Agreement (% support)

We also asked voters how much they cared about public funding being used to attract billion-dollar auto investments in Ontario. On average, 48 per cent of Ontarians view auto investments as important even if they require public dollars. Support is highest in Northern Ontario (52 per cent), the 905-area code (51 per cent), and southwestern Ontario (50 per cent).

What We’re Watching

Looking ahead, here are a few things on our radar that could generate some push back between the contending parties.

• The Liberals have been working hard to drive a wedge with the PCs on education. Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca has laid out a robust pan to cancel the Highway 413 project in order to fix school infrastructure, cap class sizes at 20 students and reintroduce an optional Grade 13. Education ranked low in our research into voter priorities, so will these announcements move the needle?
• The PCs are fighting a battle on two fronts. Coming out swinging, the PCs have doubled down on their attacks against Del Duca with a new attack video and website seeking to tie him to former Premier Kathleen Wynne. It’s reminiscent of previous federal Conservative systematic attacks to brand former Liberal leaders like Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff. Earlier this week, the PCs also launched an attack ad against the NDP, branding them as “an expensive disaster”.

We will continue to monitor the effectiveness of these attacks and wedges, and if they break through the noise on social media. It could be these are targeted strategies with certain voter groups or in a handful of swing ridings. Stay tuned!

Transportation Affordability

In the first week of the campaign, promises on transit and affordability dominated the conversation.

Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca is looking to tap into Ontarian’s desire for more affordability (the top issue in last week’s research), with a new buck-a-ride program, cutting all fares in “every transit system in Ontario” to $1 until 2024. It’s a not-so-subtle swipe at PC Leader Doug Ford’s 2018 election promise of “buck-a-beer.”

In contrast, Ford reaffirmed his plan to build Highway 413 to reduce traffic and gridlock in the GTA. Ford pushed back on Del Duca’s and Horwath’s plans to cancel Highway 413, criticizing their refusal to address concerns about the impact of gridlock on the growing GTA population. Picking up on the affordability question, Ford also restated his commitments to keeping transit costs down by getting rid of licence plate stickers and removing tolls on Highway 412 and 418.

We took a look at whether voters are aware of their policies. Our May 2-5 research shows that Ford’s and Del Duca’s transportation plans managed to punch through with voters (37 per cent and 36 per cent awareness, respectively), while Horwath seems to have missed the bus (only 11 per cent awareness).

Which announcement generated more conversation? Here’s a closer look at which plan outperformed on traditional and social media this week.

Mainstream Media

This week, there have been over 290 stories about the PC’s Highway 413, but over 850 stories about the Liberal’s “buck-a-ride.” The majority of coverage is provincewide, but key national outlets such as the Toronto Star, Globe and Mail, the CBC, and CTV have been covering the stories.

Social Media

Social media volume on the issue has been high. This past week, there were over 4,500 mentions of the Liberal’s “buck-a-ride” promise, and over 3,500 mentions of the PC’s Highway 413 promise.

The Push Back Verdict – Missing the Bus

An effective election campaign comes down to each parties’ ability to contrast with their opponents, and in a week where everyone was talking transit, Horwath has ‘missed the bus’. We give a tip of the hat to Del Duca this week for dominating the conversation with ‘buck-a-ride’, and to Ford for pivoting to affordability on Thursday (as the data shows). Del Duca and Ford chose their lane and managed to connect with voters, which shows in the polling and media data. For the NDP, not so much.

Dental Care

NDP leader Andrea Horwath may have missed out on transportation week, but it is likely because she had her own plans and priorities. In our research, health care was the second most important issue to voters. On Day Two of the campaign, the NDP announced a dental care plan for low- to middle-income families. During her press conference in Scarborough, Horwath promised to completely cover dental care for households earning $90,000 a year or less. Horwath also indicated the plan would be implemented quickly, in partnership with the federal government, because families are struggling with the cost of living. She said the first step to getting people the access they need was to defeat Doug Ford.

PC Leader Doug Ford pushed back on the NDP announcement during his campaign event in Pickering on Thursday, saying the existing low-income seniors’ dental program works well and a PC government plans to keep spending $90 million annually on it.

With rising concerns about the cost of living and quality of care, can a promise for covered dental care influence voters?

Mainstream and Social Media

Social and mainstream media volume on Horwath’s dental care plan shows the NDP’s election promise is picking up some traction. In the last week, there were over 1,600 mentions of the plan on social media and 140 stories in the mainstream media. We’ll be watching to see if this traction continues to build into the next week.

The Push Back Verdict – Rolling Stone

We would label this announcement as a “rolling stone”, that could end up making an impact with voters. While there has been limited media traction, the NDP is seeing momentum on social media (and likely at the doors). Though Ford has downplayed the proposal, we anticipate the NDP will continue to push on the dental care plan as an issue of affordability. We’ll continue to monitor the conversation to measure the effectiveness of her plan with voters.

Abortion Access

The Liberals raised concerns this week about the PC’s position on abortion following the U.S. Supreme Court’s leaked decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, a landmark abortion case. On social media, a 2019 video resurfaced of PC MPP Sam Oosterhoff at an anti-abortion rally, sparking conversation about the PC’s position on the matter. At the time Ford said, the PCs are a “big tent” of members “from a wide variety of backgrounds and beliefs.”

On Wednesday, when asked by the media about his current take on the issue, Ford indicated he would not reopen any abortion issues in the legislature saying, “We’re not changing in Ontario, we’re keeping it exactly the same.” Other parties including the NDP and OLP have announced plans to expand and enhance access to abortion.
While this issue is plaguing federal conservatives, was Ford’s response enough to hold off the critics? Let’s take a look.

Social Media

After news broke south of the border, social media volume was high with over 12,000 mentions of abortion within the context of the Ontario election. While volume remains high, it began to taper near the end of the week.

The Push Back Verdict – Burning Coals

We’d classify this exchange as “burning coals.” Over the course of the week, media and social media coverage peaked and then declined, and reporters did not follow up with Ford on the issue after his initial response. While reporters have moved on, it doesn’t mean that the PCs won’t face this spectre again on the campaign trail. The Ontario Liberals and NDP may take a page from their federal cousins from the 2019 and 2021 national campaigns to see if they can make the issue stick to the conservatives. It’s certainly an issue to watch in Ontario, especially as U.S. media follows the issue closely.

In Other News

• As mentioned earlier, the Liberals released their full education plan this morning, which included reintroducing an optional Grade 13 and hiring 1,000 more mental health workers for students and staff in schools.
• This morning, Ford announced a promise to extend GO train service in Durham Region with four new stations. Just before the announcement the Liberals pushed back, calling out Ford for delaying the Bowmanville GO train expansion when first elected to office in 2018.
• NDP Leader Andrea Horwath was out talking about housing affordability today, including releasing an updated housing platform. The plan will spur the construction of 1.5 million homes, end exclusionary zoning, and establish a new government agency to finance and build at least 250,000 affordable rental homes over the next 10 years.

On Day 1 of the campaign, both PC Leader Doug Ford and Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca staked out their positions on Highway 413. At his campaign kickoff in Brampton, Ford took the opportunity to double down on his position in support of building Highway 413 alongside representatives from LiUNA, a construction union in the province. He roundly criticized the opposition for not tackling gridlock, using their own tweets as campaign fodder.

Del Duca hit back again at Ford and the PC’s Highway 413 plans, announcing the Liberals would use the project’s $10 billion price tag of the project to build and repair thousands of schools as well as deliver on their buck-a-ride election promise. Horwath has also committed to cancelling the project.

While Navigator’s polling showed 57 per cent of Ontarians living in the 905 support Highway 413, Del Duca’s counterattack and his commitment to lower transit fares strikes at the heart of the issue Ontarians care about most in this election: our survey results show 7 in 10 Ontarians identified affordability as their top issue in this election. Education, however, ranked only seventh.

Who’s push back will win the day? Stay tuned—we’ll be watching this fight closely and report back in a future edition.

For more of Navigator’s analysis of the 2022 Ontario election, please visit The Push Back.