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Desperately seeking…yourself: the Internet and Identity

We still talk about the Internet like it’s new. We talk about ‘breaking the Internet’ with a viral trend, about not understanding the Internet, about being confused, baffled, and floored by new things on the Internet. We anthropomorphize it — ‘the Internet’s favourite thing,’ ‘the Internet loves [insert topic].’This is partly because the Internet is always new — there are always new elements to the Internet and even the way we go about getting to the Internet is constantly changing. From creaky old Netscape Navigator, to Internet Explorer, to Firefox, Safari, and Chrome, — the Internet is defined by its variability and unwillingness to grow up.

But, the Internet isn’t new. Although academia has been using the World Wide Web since the 1980s, 1995 is the generally agreed-upon date for the inception of the global communications and Google-deep-dive repository of information that we know today. It’s 21-years-old. It’s a junior in college. It can drink anywhere in the world. It’s no longer in its infancy, but like anyone in their early twenties, the process to get to this age and the ongoing maturation of its systems and users, has gone — and will continue to go — through some growing pains.

As a global communications tool, how the Internet functions dictates content and form, and also reflects its users and people who contribute to that content. The vast majority of people who are contributing in organic ways are the ones who went through their growing pains right along with the burgeoning World Wide Web, and you can tell. At the moment, a lot of Internet culture has given way to nostalgia: lists of the 30 toys you forgot, how to tell if you’re a 90s kid, and much of that nostalgia is for old Internet platforms themselves. For example, the Wayback Machine is a catalogue of old sites that no longer (actively) exist on the Internet. Through the Wayback machine, however, you can visit your favourite defunct site and experience a wave of nostalgia that only visiting someone’s old GeoCities page can bring.

This is pretty understandable, seeing as there is a certain age demographic that experienced their first crushes and demonstrations of public affection through screen names created from maudlin lyrics; who first got up the courage to speak to that object of affection via instant messenger, whether ICQ (which, fun fact, is Internet parlance for ‘I Seek You’), AOL, or MSN; who expressed their overwrought feelings in LiveJournal posts; and who portrayed their essential teen selves through their favourite bands on MySpace pages. In short, they created themselves online through a variety of mediums — a ~*~**username**~*~here, a favourite quote and winky-face there. Liking a certain page aligns you with a particular celebrity or cause, and #tbt (throwback Thursday) and #flashbackfriday are more current examples of such identity building and nostalgia, as people who use these hashtags tend to post childhood or family photos.

For those not of the millennial age, most of online identity discovery took a more anxious form. Fretting over credit card fraud, online security issues, revealing your full name — while these all seem outdated, they were once very real concerns, when users across the world connected via their creaky dial-up, only to be kicked offline moments later by an incoming fax of their baby cousin’s drawing, sent by their aunt from ‘up north.’ There was a real anxiety about exposing yourself online to strangers, lest they snatch away critical details of your life. Usernames, depending on your age, were created as much to protect identity from the shadowy depths of the net as they were to project it. But once one member of a group folded and started using their full and real name in things like email and eBay, the rest followed. For those over a certain age, a large part of becoming comfortable on the Internet was seeing people who were ‘just like you’ do the same thing.

In short, people have spent, and continue to spend, a lot of time figuring out who they are on the Internet, developing their personalities, their communications style and form, and telling everyone — whether directly or indirectly — all of the things they do and do not like. And yet, we still have a tendency to ignore much of it as throwaway bits of fluff, and pretend that Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, or even OkCupid and Tinder, represent nothing more than superficial forays into online culture that are divorced from anything of consequence.

Things of consequence, like, for example, the fact that for better or worse, people are more responsive to content in which they see themselves reflected back.

In 2009, OKCupid conducted a study — and then refreshed that study with new data in 2014 — that found race affects who messages back on the popular dating site. The study demonstrated society’s racial biases and a tendency for most groups to match with members of their own race, or to discriminate against certain races. Similarly, in an informal, but extensive, experiment, one journalist found that that people on Tinder tend to swipe right (match with someone) if they are in the same socioeconomic bracket, or seem to belong to a desirable class — something that people are incredibly good at predicting — or projecting — from only a few photos and some biographical information. Another breakdown of online dating from FiveThirtyEight found that users on eHarmony were clearly searching for someone like themselves. There was an obvious pattern between similar traits and whom people chose to message on the site.

Numerous studies worry about the superficiality and possible corrosion of human interaction from such dating sites (the studies on whether or not that is true are still very mixed), they provide a wealth of information into people’s online actions, translated into real-life action. There are few other sources that so clearly represent someone’s identity that can draw as direct a line between online behavior and real-life decisions as these dating tools. With each passing year that the Internet ages, the need to separate our ‘online’ personalities from our ‘actual’ personalities gets whittled down a little more as these behaviours flow freely between our internet worlds and our actual worlds. Purchases are made online, activism starts online and moves to the outside world, people meet potential partners by curating a profile page that represents themselves. Identity building online is real — from your childhood Neopets to your Facebook profile, to your Tinder bio — and whether good or bad, the fact that we are seeking out similar faces and people is a reality.

While studies suggesting we are all a little more biased or prejudiced than we would like to believe can be horribly depressing, there are also positives to seeking yourself. Unquestionably, the Internet has become a tool for minorities and others who have felt marginalized by mainstream society to connect online. The removal of geographic barriers mean that people can meet and talk about their common interests and shared life experiences regardless of location. Expanding common experiences across regions, such as knowing that kids everywhere are using Vine or following a certain band, can create bonds. Take Bronies or comic book fans — Internet back channels have existed as long as the Internet has existed, from the first informal chat rooms to your own particular Twitter circle. People actually have Twitter friends now that they met online, and sometimes, meet IRL (In Real Life).

This plays out in public affairs in various ways. Whether you’re fighting for or against an issue, a large part of the battle is connecting with people or making it feel like this issue means something to them, personally.

One of the dangers comes in assuming you know your audience without doing any of the work to actually understand them. You might think it’s Jenny from rural wherever, with three kids and a minivan that you’re after — it’s not always. It could actually be downtown Michelle, lawyer and urbanite, who cares about your cause. Or Bob or Richard; Braedon or Noah; Ashley or Ava. As the aforementioned Tinder experiment lays out, with things like online dating, we base our likes or dislikes on a number of signs, and what we’re really doing with public affairs campaigns is trying to decipher those signs.

Semiotics is the study of signs, and when looking for resonating messages, you’re essentially trying to figure out a series of symbols, guides, hieroglyphs, that all say that your message in particular is meant for a given individual. Kind of like dating. The trouble is, not all signs mean the same things to the same people. The text that one group might find inspiring, another finds off-putting. Markers of class can vary widely from culture to culture. It’s not always straightforward as to what you’re communicating and to whom. Moreover, it’s not always easy to tell what, specifically, is making your message resonate or not. It could be the phrase you’re using. It could be the typeface. It could be the photo — or it could be a small part of the photo. A picture with a lake in the background could be comforting and cottage-y to some, and ominous and bleak to another. Making assumptions about what types of things certain types of people like is not only exclusionary, it’s limiting for your messaging.

Much like users’ online exploration via MSN and through MySpace, discovering the ins and outs and likes and dislikes of your audience is work. You don’t just land on the perfect set of Good Charlotte lyrics that expresses your inner you, you have to try a few out first. You don’t just select a perfect Facebook profile picture that speaks to all of your interests and many-faceted personalities forever. Responsiveness is usually emotional and automatic, but how we see ourselves and what we’re looking for often changes or shifts subtly. While remaining consistent, people are often looking for new and more interesting ways to express or define themselves. And if people are looking for themselves online, that means what they are looking for is subtly changing and shifting too.

So the Internet constantly seems new, partly because of all of this fluctuating identity-building and as a giant communications tool, the World Wide Web has become the de facto area to do it. The Internet will continue to experience growing pains as we all continue to muddle around with our own biases and preferences and constantly update what and who we are in our own heads. Clearly, as the studies indicate, none of us are perfect, and so neither is our online behaviour. More and more it is a reflection of offline personalities. Identity is also partly manufactured, and sometimes people don’t know something about themselves until they see it coming from someone else, someone they aspire to be. It is individual, but also influenced by the surrounding content. So it would follow that successful messaging needs to do the same and follow these paths of self-discovery.

Hitting the right messaging mark with the right people online takes investigation and it needs to be updated, and updated as frequently as people’s own need to cultivate their online selves. Small changes to public affairs messaging can make a big difference to what you are saying to your audienceナthe kind of big difference as say, a new ~*~smiley face~*~ here or winky face there.

Can Google predict the future?

It’s hard to imagine going a day without Google. Directions to a restaurant, a recipe for dinner or a search for a news story you’re curious about – Google’s resourcefulness has become ubiquitous with modern living. There’s a reason ‘Google’ is a verb recognized by the Oxford English Dictionary. While innocuous online interactions might seem forgettable to the individual user, collectively, they can provide deep insight, signal larger trends and even predict offline behaviour.

The first iteration of Google Trends was launched in 2006, and has been continually upgraded since. Its current version allows users to track news stories and the words and phrases used in searches, breaking them down by time and location. Google Trends also provides data on the type of search (web, image, news, Google Shopping or YouTube) and related top and rising topics and queries.

This resource has inspired researchers of all kinds to apply its open data to their fields of study. Sociologists have used to it examine parents’ curiosity surrounding their child’s weight or intelligence, while investors have tried to find connections between behavioural changes with searches and stock prices. News editors and producers can use the tool to map out how stories and pop culture trends are resonating. After Donald Trump’s success on Super Tuesday, The Globe and Mail, as part of its analysis, reported that Americans searching ‘moving to Canada’ spiked.

In all cases, this data enables researchers or curious members of the general public with the ability to monitor and understand regional breakdowns and related searches. The ムmoving to Canada’ sentiment was most popular in Norfolk, Virginia, and related searches mentioned Donald Trump or Raven Symone, a celebrity whose musing on the subject grabbed headlines. Further, the ムmoving to Canada’ search has skyrocketed since the beginning of February and the volume is still strong moving into March.

Beyond exploring trends, can Google actually forecast the future? Could it, for example, predict the outcome of an election?

Recent updates to Google Trends now provide enough granular, real-time data to allow users to track behaviour in key regions and correlate it with expected electoral outcomes. The New York Times recently examined Google searches in states prior to their caucuses and primaries, finding that electoral results in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada closely aligned with their respective shares of search volume.

Obvious doubts about this predictive model persist: just because someone Googles Donald Trump, doesn’t mean they’ll vote for him. However, with recent data showing the power earned media coverage can have on popular appeal, it’s not hard to see why someone’s interest in a candidate on Google can correspond with real-life support at the ballot box. Here in Canada, Google Trends accurately forecasted Justin Trudeau’s win in October. While Stephen Harper began the campaign as the most searched leader, Trudeau ended the campaign far ahead of his Conservative and NDP counterparts. Notably, despite leading public opinion polling in August, Thomas Mulcair remained a distant third in Google Trends for the duration of the campaign, forecasting his party’s relegation to third party status.

While promising and certainly interesting, Google Trends creates what some experts call ‘Big Data Hubris’, the false assumption that new tools can replace, rather than complement, traditional research methods. One notable example of this is Google Flu Trends. First launched in 2009, it tracked regional searches of flu-related terms and was able to predict outbreaks two weeks before the United States Center of Disease Control was able to do so. However, shortly after, this predictive model was found to be deeply flawed, as it was unable to predict the swine flu epidemic and missed the peak of the 2013 flu season by 140 per cent.

But why was Google so wrong? Simply put, because humans are the ones doing the searches. In understanding how Google Trends failed, researchers concluded that people weren’t as sick as they thought. Indeed, only 8.8 per cent of people who exhibit flu-like symptoms actually have the virus – explaining why doctor’s offices are unnecessarily clogged during flu season and a user who Googles flu remedies isn’t necessarily inflicted.

Until the crystal ball is perfected, amateur and professional researchers alike will experiment with and refine methodologies. Sourced data will still require human analysis, extraction and perspective for proper qualification and application. At Navigator, we use a library of digital tools to augment our traditional research. While social media listening, Google Trends and other online analytics do not replace our quantitative and qualitative research methods, they do provide insight into how our client’s issues are being consumed and discussed in the age of Twitter and the 24/7 news cycle — insight that many can ill afford to live without.

Introducing Political Traction (Redux)

After weeks of planning, recording and testing, we’re proud to launch Navigator’s first podcast, Political Traction. We created Political Traction to assess how much traction political leaders, pundits, and media get with the people they’re trying to reach: people like you. Every week, we look at the top political issues being discussed in Ottawa and assess how much they resonated with Canadians across the country. Our first three episodes are now live on our new website, politicaltraction.fm, on Soundcloud, or on iTunes.

If the name ‘Political Traction’ sounds familiar to you, well, that’s because it’s not entirely new. Fans of CBC’s Power and Politics may remember a segment that Navigator’s Jaime Watt used to host every week from 2011-2014. Let’s take a walk down memory lane, shall we?

Political Traction ran for four seasons, and now, we’re expanding on this original concept by taking our first foray into podcasting. With podcasting, we saw an opportunity to take the original made-for-TV concept and dive deeper. Every week, our own Allie McHugh and David Woolley run through the top three issues making news in Ottawa and on Parliament Hill. We analyze how much traction Ottawa got with the Canadian public. Then, to tell us what this all means, and analyze how in (or out) of sync Ottawa is with Canadians, Allie speaks with one of our public affairs experts.

In our inaugural episode, Allie explains how the podcast got started and talks with Jaime about the original idea for Political Traction and why it matters.

To conduct this weekly analysis, we refined our methodology, which is explained in great detail in our second episode, complete with tables and charts for the data head in all of us.

And finally, to round out the package, we have our first weekly episode available for download. This week, Allie and David breakdown the top issues in Ottawa: the national deficit, Canada’s mission to fight ISIS, and the perception of the Liberal party’s strategy. After discussing whether these issues got any traction, Allie interviews Will Stewart, Managing Principal at Navigator and founding Principal of Ensight, to explain why or why not these issues are resonating with Canadians across the country.

We’re excited to share this project with you. You can look forward to a new episode in your podcast player of choice, every Monday. Every now and then we’ll mix it up with special episodes and documentaries. Don’t miss out! Subscribe today on iTunes, or at politicaltraction.fm.