Month: September 2026

Parliament is back with a substantive legislative agenda that reminds us: Democracy is nothing without accountability. For shame, then, that His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition is distracted by internal schisms and online echo chambers.

This fall, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives must gain a foothold. The party’s own MPs know it. Conservative deputy leader Melissa Lantsman told reporters, “This is not the position we want to be in.”

Indeed not.

Since Prime Minister Mark Carney walked away from “a bad deal” with the U.S. in August, his popularity has reached new heights. What’s going unsaid is that this makes the Opposition’s role in Parliament even more important. Poilievre’s Conservatives owe it to their voters, and Canadians writ large, to unite as a principled counterweight to Carney’s power. They owe it to themselves, too. Recall that Paul Martin was once cruising to a “supermajority.” Fortunately, the Conservatives weren’t asleep at the wheel when the Sponsorship Scandal hit.

First and foremost, Poilievre must boost caucus morale and lay to rest internal spats. So long as there are rumblings and rumoured floor crossings, he won’t make headlines about anything else. Plain and simple. So, he must do what embattled leaders before him have done. Sit down with his detractors and agree to a détente. Show respect to his shadow cabinet. Be generous to his backbenchers. And if the rumblings continue, Poilievre will have to make the hard choice to remove caucus members who aren’t team players. Otherwise, who’s really leading the party?

Second, the Conservatives must put down their phones and look at the polls. Poilievre’s online activity suggests he still thinks X is a modern-day town square. It is not, and it hasn’t been for a long time. It is a place where influencers are rewarded for divisive commentary. Anyone who uses it as a barometer for public opinion does so at their peril.

Case in point: polling shows eight in 10 Canadians back the idea of closer relations with the European Union. Yet no sooner could young Canadians picture themselves studying abroad in Paris than they saw Poilievre come out swinging against European bureaucracy and taxes. He declared Canada will “never be the 28th state,” as though that was a concern around the water cooler.

What’s peculiar about this type of knee-jerk reaction is that the Conservatives know all too well how much time they have. Carney has a majority government that may well grow larger in the months ahead. There is exactly one silver lining to that. The Conservatives can take a breath and speak when there is something worth saying.

Third, the Conservatives must capitalize on the government’s forceful overhaul of environmental and labour rules — by giving the New Democrats ample room to voice opposition. To be clear, the Conservatives should maintain their pro-worker position and protect that ground. But the NDP could chip away at Carney’s left-leaning supporters who are concerned about the right to strike and environmental protections, and the Conservatives gain by letting them.

Fourth, get a range of Conservative MPs in front of the cameras this fall — such as Lantsman, Adam Chambers, and Shuv Majumdar. People who can intelligently contribute to the public dialogue. People who reflect Canada’s diversity. When the government introduces the fall budget, finance critic Michael Chong should lead the reaction. He can help the party reconnect with those centre-right voters who have taken a shine to Carney but are keeping a close eye on the Liberals’ spending habits.

Lastly, a note on tone. The Conservatives are facing off against a historically popular prime minister, who voters trust to defend the country against U.S. threats. So, Poilievre and his team need to be careful in their criticism. Carney’s chronic absences from Question Period are fair game. Once the media don’t have floor-crossing rumours to cover anymore, this could get more uptake. The Conservatives should also look for openings to propose. The upcoming budget is an obvious one. Other issues will emerge, like public concern around artificial intelligence. Discuss, debate. Then position the party accordingly.

In the words of John Diefenbaker, who spent years in opposition before forming government: “Freedom always dies when criticism ends.” The Conservatives must position themselves as the government-in-waiting — whether that wait is long or short.

Don’t blink this fall. It’s going to be a critical — and unpredictable — few months for our country. That’s why I’m watching three categories of events: cheers, jeers, and peers.

First up is a phenomenon called cheering theory, where people root for a proposition or person or institution. This is Canada’s secret weapon in the trade war against the United States, because Canadians are cheering for their federal government so loudly that it’s a self-reinforcing roar. People want Prime Minister Mark Carney to succeed — even plenty of people who didn’t vote Liberal in the last election. Seven in 10 Canadians support the decision to suspend trade talks with the U.S. rather than accept a bad deal, according to Abacus Data. When was the last time any public policy initiative had that level of backing? The Liberals are winning byelection after byelection. Look at the public comments on Carney’s latest Forward Guidance video and you’ll see more positivity than you knew existed on the internet. One Australian commenter said, “I don’t even know what elbows up means, but ELBOWS UP!” Whatever the game, people want Carney to win.

Now, the real question hanging over this enthusiasm is durability. The trade war is a lot easier to fight when it’s abstract than when it shows up as inflation or job losses. We already know plenty of Canadian households are stretched, picking up items and then putting them back on the grocery shelf because they’ve gotten too expensive. If this drags on and our collective stress mounts that patience won’t hold indefinitely. But don’t forget this: U.S. households are stretched, too. And U.S. President Donald Trump doesn’t have anything like Carney’s numbers to sustain him.

This leads into the jeers to watch. Trump’s approval ratings are in the mid-30s, drawing comparisons to Richard Nixon’s as Watergate unfolded in his second term. When the U.S. midterm elections are held in November, American voters are expected to seize on the chance to make their grievances known. In new polling, Abacus Data found the Democrats are pulling ahead in several U.S. Senate races directly hurt by the trade war, including Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio.

Cheering theory also works in reverse. It’s possible for anti-government momentum to become unstoppable and for the ground under Trump’s feet to completely erode. So far, what sustains the 47th president is how thoroughly he’s remade America in his image — and I don’t just mean the Gulf and the Lake. It goes much deeper. The hurricane of anger, blame, and cronyism he’s brought to public life has politicized the Justice Department and the Supreme Court; weakened America’s civil society; and cornered once-powerful corporations into kowtowing.

While Canadians would relish a bruising midterm verdict on Trump, any celebrations could be short-lived. We all know how well this president copes with jeers. When he hunts for someone to blame, Carney will be on the list. A cornered Trump is not a chastened Trump.

Canada is wisely choosing to keep different company, which brings us to peers. Carney welcomes the world to the Canada Investment Summit in Toronto this week. He is inviting investment in more than 160 projects spanning energy, minerals, infrastructure, and more. The very next day he is in France for the EU’s state of the union address — the first time a foreign leader is attending as an honoured guest. The following day, Carney will address the legislators himself. This isn’t ordinary networking. It’s a forceful pursuit of partnerships.

There’s an adage that politics stops at the water’s edge. Right now, I think it stops at the 49th parallel. Canadians understand this is a wartime footing, and for the moment, they’re prepared to stand together on it. This landscape doesn’t bode well for separatist forces in Alberta and Quebec this fall, as Alberta votes on whether to hold a referendum and Quebec chooses a new provincial government.

The key will be to watch the crowd, not just the podium. The cheers, jeers, and peers are all telling the same story from different angles: whether a government under siege can turn a rally-round-the-flag moment into something that endures. Carney as Time’s 2026 Person of the Year is a fun bet. Whether Canadians are still cheering by Christmas, however, is the one that matters.