3 categories I’m watching this fall that will define Canada’s future.

Don’t blink this fall. It’s going to be a critical — and unpredictable — few months for our country. That’s why I’m watching three categories of events: cheers, jeers, and peers.
First up is a phenomenon called cheering theory, where people root for a proposition or person or institution. This is Canada’s secret weapon in the trade war against the United States, because Canadians are cheering for their federal government so loudly that it’s a self-reinforcing roar. People want Prime Minister Mark Carney to succeed — even plenty of people who didn’t vote Liberal in the last election. Seven in 10 Canadians support the decision to suspend trade talks with the U.S. rather than accept a bad deal, according to Abacus Data. When was the last time any public policy initiative had that level of backing? The Liberals are winning byelection after byelection. Look at the public comments on Carney’s latest Forward Guidance video and you’ll see more positivity than you knew existed on the internet. One Australian commenter said, “I don’t even know what elbows up means, but ELBOWS UP!” Whatever the game, people want Carney to win.
Now, the real question hanging over this enthusiasm is durability. The trade war is a lot easier to fight when it’s abstract than when it shows up as inflation or job losses. We already know plenty of Canadian households are stretched, picking up items and then putting them back on the grocery shelf because they’ve gotten too expensive. If this drags on and our collective stress mounts that patience won’t hold indefinitely. But don’t forget this: U.S. households are stretched, too. And U.S. President Donald Trump doesn’t have anything like Carney’s numbers to sustain him.
This leads into the jeers to watch. Trump’s approval ratings are in the mid-30s, drawing comparisons to Richard Nixon’s as Watergate unfolded in his second term. When the U.S. midterm elections are held in November, American voters are expected to seize on the chance to make their grievances known. In new polling, Abacus Data found the Democrats are pulling ahead in several U.S. Senate races directly hurt by the trade war, including Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio.
Cheering theory also works in reverse. It’s possible for anti-government momentum to become unstoppable and for the ground under Trump’s feet to completely erode. So far, what sustains the 49th president is how thoroughly he’s remade America in his image — and I don’t just mean the Gulf and the Lake. It goes much deeper. The hurricane of anger, blame, and cronyism he’s brought to public life has politicized the Justice Department and the Supreme Court; weakened America’s civil society; and cornered once-powerful corporations into kowtowing.
While Canadians would relish a bruising midterm verdict on Trump, any celebrations could be short-lived. We all know how well this president copes with jeers. When he hunts for someone to blame, Carney will be on the list. A cornered Trump is not a chastened Trump.
Canada is wisely choosing to keep different company, which brings us to peers. Carney welcomes the world to the Canada Investment Summit in Toronto this week. He is inviting investment in more than 160 projects spanning energy, minerals, infrastructure, and more. The very next day he is in France for the EU’s state of the union address — the first time a foreign leader is attending as an honoured guest. The following day, Carney will address the legislators himself. This isn’t ordinary networking. It’s a forceful pursuit of partnerships.
There’s an adage that politics stops at the water’s edge. Right now, I think it stops at the 49th parallel. Canadians understand this is a wartime footing, and for the moment, they’re prepared to stand together on it. This landscape doesn’t bode well for separatist forces in Alberta and Quebec this fall, as Alberta votes on whether to hold a referendum and Quebec chooses a new provincial government.
The key will be to watch the crowd, not just the podium. The cheers, jeers, and peers are all telling the same story from different angles: whether a government under siege can turn a rally-round-the-flag moment into something that endures. Carney as Time’s 2026 Person of the Year is a fun bet. Whether Canadians are still cheering by Christmas, however, is the one that matters.