Category: Chairman’s Desk

Even though Ontario’s 43rd general election is now just four days away, the results seem to be a foregone conclusion. For all intents and purposes, every sign indicates that Doug Ford and his incumbent Progressive Conservatives will be returning to Queen’s Park to govern Canada’s most populous province for another four years.

Why? Because Ford’s message has, once again, resonated with voters.

For a series of reasons, the plans Steven Del Duca and Andrea Horwath have put forth to address the issues top-of-mind for voters have simply not been convincing. Rather, a plurality of Ontarians appear to remain convinced that the PCs are best positioned to address the pocketbook issues they care most about.

With the horse race question seemingly answered, others remain. Will Horwath keep her job as leader of the official Opposition — or of the Ontario NDP, for that matter? Will the Liberal leader win his own Vaughan-Woodbridge riding?

On the other hand, Ford faces a different set of questions and challenges. Should he sail to victory as anticipated, PC politicians, pundits and staffers will rightfully celebrate another electoral breakthrough.

That said, their honeymoon will be short as the reality of continuing to govern an intricate and complicated province sets in.

Ontario faces a host of challenging issues, and the new premier does not have the tools to deal with them all. In fact, when you look at the issue set, you might well conclude winning the election means winning a booby prize.

First off, Ontarians are facing a severe affordability crunch. As I’ve previously written in this space, this has been the “affordability crisis” campaign.

The extent and impact of this crisis cannot be overstated. As Canada’s inflation rate skyrocketed to 6.8 per cent in April — a 31-year high — the prices of everyday essentials, like gasoline and food, ate into the finances of every Canadian family. Food prices alone have risen nearly 10 per cent over the past year.

Given the provincial government’s limited control over monetary policy, a PC government faces an uphill battle when combating the price of everyday essentials without resorting to costly subsidies or tax breaks — political levers the provincial treasury can no longer easily stomach.

Meanwhile, housing affordability continues to deteriorate at an alarming rate, pushing first-time home buyers and families further behind. The average price of a home in Ontario, inflation-adjusted, has risen 44 per cent since 2018, reaching a record $871,688.

The core of the issue is that demand for housing across Ontario continues to outpace supply. While the PCs have smartly positioned themselves as the pro-construction and development option, they will need to actually deliver.

The new Ford government simply must fulfil their election promise to build 1.5 million new homes. After all, in the last decade alone, Ontario’s population grew by over 1,600,000 people.

And then there is our dismal financial standing. Fifteen years of Liberal overspending, COVID-19 pandemic subsides delivered at previously unimagined levels, a war in Ukraine, a looming global recession, and worldwide supply chain issues all conspire to make a bad situation even worse.

As Ontario’s debt rises to a projected eye-popping $468.4 billion by 2024-25, delivering a plan for fiscal balance will be no easy task.

Many of the Ford government’s political missteps in the early days of its first mandate were attributed to the pursuit of a balanced budget. Resuming that path this time around will be undoubtedly contentious once again. It will require a careful trade off between the public’s appetite for structural change, and the financial reality on the ground.

To complicate this equation, a renewed PC government will have to contend with a serious backlog of urgent hospital procedures and another round of negotiations with public sector workers, including teachers.

Turns out the fabulist Aesop may well have been right when he said “Be careful what you wish for, lest it come true.”

Clarification — May 30, 2022: Ontario has the largest population of all provinces and territories in Canada. A previous version of this article said it was simply the largest. As well, it was clarified that Ontario’s debt, not its deficit, is projected to rise to $468.4 billion by 2024-25.

On the eve of a provincial election, the NDP were counting their losses. Many of their union members, particularly male workers, were not just flocking to the Progressive Conservatives but doing so in droves after the progressives had alienated them. Policies that had been designed to save public sector jobs ultimately did not represent their interests.

It’s ancient history now, but this story of the 1995 election showdown between then-NDP premier Bob Rae and PC leader Mike Harris could just as easily be the story of the 2022 Ontario election.

On the evidence, Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario have every reason to feel good about their prospects at this stage in the campaign. And one of the key reasons is they have done what few other conservative parties in this country could — win over organized labour.

To be sure, Ford hasn’t won over the entirety of the labour movement, something that would be sure to raise eyebrows among his base. But political observers should take note: Ford has chipped away at the labour establishment and swooped in to win the support of construction unions slighted by the previous Liberal government. The result? A powerful new political coalition.

At the time of writing, six labour unions — the electrical workers, the boilermakers, the painters, the pipefitters, the sheet metal worker and, of course, the Laborers’ International Union of North America (LIUNA) — have all endorsed Ford.

Together, these unions hold a combined membership of over 50,000 workers. To put that in perspective, the Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario, Ontario’s most prominent teachers’ union, represents about 78,000 members.

This is Ford’s second LIUNA endorsement. After he took office, he never took that 2018 endorsement for granted. Rather, he immediately set to work consolidating his relationship with the union. As a result, the relationship has blossomed ever since, and served as a stepping stone to deepening connections with other labour groups in the construction sector.

Ford also worked to rebalance the scales between workers and employers by improving working conditions for Ontario’s blue-collar and low-wage workers, from Uber drivers to dishwashers, especially in the wake of a global pandemic that exposed how critical these positions are — and how we undervalue them.

To do so, Ford abandoned a number of traditional “red meat” conservative policies. His government raised the general minimum wage, guaranteed digital platform workers the tips they earned and enshrined their protection from reprisal. Ford then went on to adopt progressive policies like the right to disconnect, and washroom rights for truck drivers and delivery workers.

The Ford government also invested in skills development, giving labour unions the funding to train and upskill workers. In 2022 alone, his government earmarked $1.2 billion in skills training, with portions of that funding going directly to unions like the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, the Ontario Pipe Trades Council, LIUNA and others.

In the new labour divide between remote work and essential work, Ford has made clear where he stands.

And that’s the key: the simplicity of Ford’s message of “yes.” Contrast that with NDP Leader Andrea Horwath’s messages around cancelling highway projects and reversing cuts to gas taxes, and guess whose message really resonates with union members wondering where their next paycheque is coming from?

The transformation has been as spectacular as it has been stark. Teachers, nurses and pipefitters no longer see eye to eye on the progressive agenda. Not all, to be sure, but elements of organized labour have now divorced themselves from the left and its traditional ideological home, embracing Ford’s PCs and their populist appeal to the working class in the process.

Ford’s efforts should serve as a model for other conservative politicians who often find they have to struggle to build a winning coalition. Ford has demonstrated that the untraditional pairing of conservative politics and labour unions has the power to fundamentally reshape the political landscape.

On the eve of a provincial election, the NDP were counting their losses. Many of their union members, particularly male workers, were not just flocking to the Progressive Conservatives but doing so in droves after the progressives had alienated them. Policies that had been designed to save public sector jobs ultimately did not represent their interests.

It’s ancient history now, but this story of the 1995 election showdown between then-NDP premier Bob Rae and PC leader Mike Harris could just as easily be the story of the 2022 Ontario election.

On the evidence, Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario have every reason to feel good about their prospects at this stage in the campaign. And one of the key reasons is they have done what few other conservative parties in this country could — win over organized labour.

To be sure, Ford hasn’t won over the entirety of the labour movement, something that would be sure to raise eyebrows among his base. But political observers should take note: Ford has chipped away at the labour establishment and swooped in to win the support of construction unions slighted by the previous Liberal government. The result? A powerful new political coalition.

At the time of writing, six labour unions — the electrical workers, the boilermakers, the painters, the pipefitters, the sheet metal worker and, of course, the Laborers’ International Union of North America (LIUNA) — have all endorsed Ford.

Together, these unions hold a combined membership of over 50,000 workers. To put that in perspective, the Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario, Ontario’s most prominent teachers’ union, represents about 78,000 members.

This is Ford’s second LIUNA endorsement. After he took office, he never took that 2018 endorsement for granted. Rather, he immediately set to work consolidating his relationship with the union. As a result, the relationship has blossomed ever since, and served as a stepping stone to deepening connections with other labour groups in the construction sector.

Ford also worked to rebalance the scales between workers and employers by improving working conditions for Ontario’s blue-collar and low-wage workers, from Uber drivers to dishwashers, especially in the wake of a global pandemic that exposed how critical these positions are — and how we undervalue them.

To do so, Ford abandoned a number of traditional “red meat” conservative policies. His government raised the general minimum wage, guaranteed digital platform workers the tips they earned and enshrined their protection from reprisal. Ford then went on to adopt progressive policies like the right to disconnect, and washroom rights for truck drivers and delivery workers.

The Ford government also invested in skills development, giving labour unions the funding to train and upskill workers. In 2022 alone, his government earmarked $1.2 billion in skills training, with portions of that funding going directly to unions like the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, the Ontario Pipe Trades Council, LIUNA and others.

In the new labour divide between remote work and essential work, Ford has made clear where he stands.

And that’s the key: the simplicity of Ford’s message of “yes.” Contrast that with NDP Leader Andrea Horwath’s messages around cancelling highway projects and reversing cuts to gas taxes, and guess whose message really resonates with union members wondering where their next paycheque is coming from?

The transformation has been as spectacular as it has been stark. Teachers, nurses and pipefitters no longer see eye to eye on the progressive agenda. Not all, to be sure, but elements of organized labour have now divorced themselves from the left and its traditional ideological home, embracing Ford’s PCs and their populist appeal to the working class in the process.

Ford’s efforts should serve as a model for other conservative politicians who often find they have to struggle to build a winning coalition. Ford has demonstrated that the untraditional pairing of conservative politics and labour unions has the power to fundamentally reshape the political landscape.

Two weeks ago in these pages, I cautioned readers not to look away from pending (and in some cases already implemented) legislation in U.S. states that undermines the rights of LGBTQ Americans.

Now, social progress in America has been dealt another, potentially far more catastrophic, blow. A leaked draft opinion from the country’s conservative-dominated Supreme Court indicates its intention to reverse half a century of legal precedent and the codified right to an abortion.

Lots will get lost amidst the noise and the furor brought about by this unprecedented leak. But again, do not look away; focus on just what’s at stake. The language and reasoning in the leaked opinion reveals a sinister and deliberately vague repudiation of progressive causes, one that we have no reason to believe won’t have implications beyond abortion rights.

In fact, it confirms something that many of us feared to be true: social progress is never truly safe and arguments we thought may be legally benched will rear their ugly heads the second their proponents are given a chance.

Hopes, including my own, that Donald Trump’s presidency would be remembered merely as an innocuous and largely inconsequential historical blip have been proven wrong, beyond doubt. Rather, the court that Trump loaded with socially conservative justices now threatens to reignite the most controversial and divisive issue in America in an ambiguously threatening way.

With the Trump-appointed justices in tow, it is the ultra-conservative Samuel Alito, appointed by George W. Bush, whose leaked draft provides a stark insight into this threat. In the draft, Alito declares the landmark Roe v. Wade decision “was egregiously wrong from the start … its reasoning was exceptionally weak, and the decision has had damaging consequences.” He also argues that the right to abortion has no constitutional criterion, nor is it “deeply rooted” in America’s “history and traditions.”

Whatever you think of abortion rights (for the record, I am strongly in favour of them), dismissing established legal precedent on the grounds that it has no root in distant tradition is alarming rhetoric. This should concern all those in favour of social progress and open debate. Worryingly, Alito is trying not only to renounce the logic and legal protections around abortion rights, but the very idea that “history and traditions” can and should be challenged as new realities develop and as historically marginalized groups find their voices.

Most concerning for me personally is, taken verbatim, these very arguments could be applied to another landmark Supreme Court decision: the one establishing the right to equal marriage. Jim Obergefell, the lead plaintiff in that case, has voiced similar fears, being “overwhelmed, scared and concerned about our nation and the rights that we enjoy.”

While Justice Alito was quick to dismiss suggestions that equal marriage might be next on his docket, the foreboding and archaic tone of his draft opinion suggests otherwise. Like abortion rights, it has been excluded from tradition and is not explicitly protected by the U.S. Constitution, a fact which leaves it vulnerable to attack and misrepresentation.

When Roe v. Wade was passed in 1973, it was decided 7-2, with five Republican appointees in favour. Almost 50 years later it stands a real chance of being overturned by Republican appointees. As Trump loaded the court, alarm bells were sounded. But as is often the case with the “slippery slope” argument, its consequences seemed so far away that it was dismissed, just as Chicken Little was. But it now appears the slope was indeed slick, and this draft opinion demonstrates those concerns were well-placed.

Rights, no matter how established, are never immune to challenges or threats. Even though many rights have been won over decades or even centuries, their erosion starts in a creeping and incremental way — and can well end at whiplash speed. The cadence of this draft opinion provides all the confirmation you need.

Now that the starting gun for the provincial election has been fired, there is one thing we know to be true: the campaign will be defined by the affordability issue, and victory will go to the party Ontarians believe will ease the strain on their pocketbooks. With everyone in the province feeling the squeeze of higher prices, it is hardly surprising that our firm’s new research shows seven in 10 of us have identified the cost of living as the top election issue.

As a result, you can expect political leaders to zero in on this theme as they criss-cross the province on the election trail, taking advantage of an issue that plays out not just in increased household costs, but in the emotional toll those costs take on families everywhere.

It is foundational to political strategy that winning campaigns must promise a better tomorrow — one where people have the promise of hope for a sunnier day. Winning campaigns are the ones that convince voters that better days lie ahead and, in this election, “better” is framed around the affordability of daily life.

But the case for a better day needs to appeal to both our head and our hearts; often, it is the appeal to our hearts that prevails. Just ask former British prime minister David Cameron how brutal it can be when that’s underestimated. Cameron learned that very lesson the hard way when his “rational” referendum campaign, based on the economic benefits of remaining in the EU, was upended by Brexit.

Interestingly in this election campaign, this leading issue actually transcends narrow, traditional ideological boundaries and provides opportunities for each of the parties. What’s more, across the board, several other major policy areas like housing — the third-most prominent issue according to our research — are related to the cost of living.

It became clear this week that the campaigns were beginning to take note. Both the Liberals and the New Democrats, currently trailing the Progressive Conservatives in polled support, rolled out promises targeted directly at this issue.

In my humble opinion, the Liberals nailed it with their “buck-a-ride” transit gambit. Striking at the heart of the affordability issue, it was smart retail politics — while questionable policy — that was brilliant in the simplicity of both the idea and the accompanying messaging. Kudos to the team that put together that chart highlighting exactly how much individual commuters would save each month based on where they lived.

However, for a campaign that desperately needs an inspired push, Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca has yet to successfully evoke the same feeling as Ronald Reagan did when, in 1980, he exhorted U.S. voters with the “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” challenge to sitting president Jimmy Carter.

The New Democrats have also taken a stab at owning this issue, this week promising both free dental care and 69,000 new affordable housing units, with the emphasis on affordable. The challenge for the NDP, however, is to rise above ideas that are expected of them to ones which the electorate feels are inspired.

All that said, don’t expect Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford’s team to be left behind. Well aware they need to defend against Reagan’s challenge, Ford’s team took the opportunity to remind voters it was the Liberals who hiked licence plate sticker fees and tolled new highways. Having skilfully set up a contrast with their opponents by mailing rebate cheques to Ontarians last month, they promised that, if re-elected, they would never toll a new highway or charge vehicle fees again. Watch for Ford to re-emphasize his cuts to gas and fuel taxes in the days ahead.

In the heat of a campaign, it is easy for teams to get distracted by a multitude of issues and concerns. In this one, the campaign that stays focused on the rawness of the affordability issue will likely emerge the winner.