Category: Media

It’s two weeks away from Election Day. Our major party leaders have been through the wringer with two debates, plenty of attack ads, candidate fiascos, and in the case of Horwath and Schreiner, taken out by the ultimate opponent, COVID-19.

The announcement is perhaps untimely for Horwath, who continues to drag in the polls. The latest Nanos poll has pegged the NDP at just 20 per cent, trailing the PCs at 36 per cent and the Liberals at 29 per cent. Leger’s May 18 poll also revealed 37 per cent of decided voters would vote PC, 28 per cent Liberal and 23 per cent NDP if the election were held today. BUT 46 per cent of decided voters said they may change their minds in the voting booth on Election Day.

What We’re Watching

• On Wednesday, CTV News released an article revealing that dozens of MPPs are sitting on investment properties that have generated gains of over $36.5 million. This is also not the first time the story has come up. Amid a housing crisis, these findings should be getting traction, but it remains to be seen if this second media hit will go anywhere.
• The race for a seat in Del Duca’s home riding of Vaughan-Woodbridge is heating up – or is it? We’re keenly interested in whether Del Duca will be able to beat a sitting Cabinet minister and close friend of Ford for his old seat.
• In more candidate madness, Brantford—Brant PC candidate Will Bouma is in hot water for homophobic comments in a church publication he previously oversaw. Ford defended Bouma, who put out a statement noting his support for the LGBTQ community. Liberal candidates Noel Semple in Etobicoke Centre and Audrey Festeryga in Chatham—Leamington—Kent are also under fire.

Union Endorsements

As we noted in last week’s Friday edition of The Push Back, some private sector unions have broken ranks with their fellow unions in their traditional ties with the Liberals and NDP. While OPSEU and the Ontario Federation of Labour threw their support behind the NDP, we saw more unions endorse the PCs this week. The International Union of Painters and Allied Trades (IUPAT), the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers (SMART), and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) have all thrown their support behind the PCs this week.

Some have likened this flurry of PC union endorsements to the “hard hat revolution” in the U.S. during the 1970s, which saw many union members throw their support behind Richard Nixon. While there are parallels to be drawn, Nixon’s allure was his opposition to the liberal cultural movement that had swept America over the previous decade. Similarly, Ford is racking up endorsements because of the pro-worker policies that his government introduced over the last four years, including the Working for Workers Act.

It should be noted that Ford has not won union support across the board. As noted, public sector unions have maintained their support for the left-leaning parties. Public sector support for the NDP and Liberals can partially be attributed to their platforms on organized labour, but can also be attributed to some of the setbacks that these unions have faced under the Ford government, including Bill 124 which capped public sector wages at a one per cent annual increase for three years and return to office policies.

But do union endorsements really matter? Did Ontario voters notice? Let’s look at the numbers.

Social Media Volume

The below graph shows that initially, there was limited conversation about union endorsements. Volume increased slightly for the NDP around May 9 when several of their candidates were endorsed by the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation (OSSTF). It wasn’t until May 15 that activity spiked, especially when it became clear that the PCs were going to secure endorsements from most construction unions. Yesterday, there were 710 mentions of the PCs endorsements on Twitter, dwarfing the volume seen by any of the other parties. Also of note, the Liberals have received almost no attention about their limited union endorsements, which is unusual given how heavily unions supported the Liberals in the 2014 and 2018 elections.

Push Back Verdict – Bark Worse than Bite

Last week, we concluded that the effects of the union endorsements “can’t be seen.” To some extent, this is still true. By severely limiting the advertising power of unions and third parties in 2018, they no longer have the power they once did to influence voters. The biggest effect that unions still have is their ability to mobilize their members to knock on doors, make phone calls and get out the vote on election day. It’s unclear whether the pro-PC private sector unions are better organized than the “anything but conservative” public sector unions. For the time being, our insights show that PC endorsements have mattered more to voters and we’re fielding research next week to test our hypothesis further. Stay tuned for that update.

Suffice it to say, if Ford and the PCs can continue to effectively push back on the old narrative of the PCs being anti-labour, build on the momentum the party has seen this week and effectively position the PCs as the working-class party of this election, it will be difficult for the Liberals or NDP to beat him on Election Day.

Have any questions about the news out of Queen’s Park this week? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.

 

More than 24 hours have lapsed on the second and last debate with the leaders of Ontario’s four major political parties. Did the leaders make an impression? Did they gain or lose ground with voters? Or were voters even aware of the debate? We took a quick look at the social media trends post-debate with today’s Push Back Spotlight.

Social Media Listening

Who’s being talked about?

Unsurprisingly, Doug Ford dominated the conversation online with overall mentions of the PC leader far higher than that of his opponents. Trailing behind was Liberal leader Steven Del Duca, with his quick jabs and live fact-checks generating some sizeable traction. Likely to the chagrin of NDP leader Andrea Horwath, the strong performance of the Green Party’s Mike Schreiner rivaled and even exceeded that of the official opposition’s.

What’s being talked about?

In an election where affordability is king, we were surprised to see that education dominated the online conversation during Monday’s debate. Del Duca hammered Ford on his public education record, citing the difficult experiences felt by kids studying online during the pandemic.

What are people saying?

Sentiment analysis revealed many critics of Ford’s performance Monday, with quips about the PC leader’s binder providing online opponents with much to talk about. Del Duca, on the other hand elicited a more balanced response from viewers, which was likely more lukewarm than he was hoping for. Of note, was online talk about Schreiner’s performance with our sentiment analysis revealing an overwhelmingly positive response.

The Push Back Verdict — Holding the Line

Doug Ford and Steven Del Duca were able to hold their own in the debate and not lose ground to opponents. Ford bore the brunt of many attacks but continued to face opponents with a cool head. Likewise, Del Duca was able to take the high ground with his education agenda, an area where the PCs have been both traditionally and currently weak. However, this is not a change election and it is likely Ford will benefit from the incumbent advantage with his avoidance of missteps during the debate.

If there was a loser, it was Andrea Horwath with her apparent nervousness and failure to own the progressive agenda at the podium. Even on social disability, Horwath acknowledged Schreiner and the Greens had been an influence to change the NDP’s own policy commitment.

We think Mike Schreiner deserves an honourable mention for his crisp messages and radiating confidence. Ford felt Schreiner’s wrath on attacks that were clear, pointed and disarming. Unlike Horwath, Schreiner was able to connect with the audience, steering the conversation away from petty squabbles and towards facts and accountability.

Sound Bites of the Debate

• FORD to DEL DUCA: “Under yourself and the former Premier Kathleen Wynne, you destroyed this province. The economy was going downhill quicker than the Canadian bobsled team.”
• DEL DUCA to FORD: “There’s an old saying in life: you’re entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts, Mr. Ford. And the truth of the matter is, you need to stop reading the script that looks like it came out of the fiction section.”
• SCHREINER to FORD: “He will roll out the red carpets for the Amazons of the world and the big box stores of the world, but when it comes to supporting local farmers, he’ll pave over their farmland.”
• HORWATH on FORD: “This is the premier that basically had a tantrum and tore out EV charging stations when he first took office. He tore up green energy contracts when he took office. Now he’s seen the light, perhaps? I somehow doubt it.”
• FORD on the pandemic: “Was everything perfect? No, it wasn’t perfect. But if there was an issue, I’ll get up there, I made the change, I apologized.”
• FORD to DEL DUCA: “Mr. Del Duca, for two and a half years, literally 24-7, I was working on this pandemic. It’s easy to sit back from the sidelines, when you didn’t have to make the tough decisions that I had to make, and criticize. You have the easiest job. You just sit there and criticize.”
• DEL DUCA on Ford’s pandemic track record: “I thought it was shameful that tonight Doug Ford was looking for pity from the people of Ontario as he talked about how hard he’s worked and how tough it’s been over the past couple of years. Doug Ford doesn’t seem to understand that’s the job that he ran for four years ago. You don’t just get to be Premier when it’s parades and sunshine. When you sign up for this job…you have this job in good times, but you also have it in tough times.”

Last night’s debate wasn’t a barn burner, but we caught some interesting push back moments for each of the parties. Who was the winner? Did this debate have an impact on voters? Our analysis is coming, so stay tuned.

Speaking of jabs, we took a look at the Liberals’ attack on PC appointments. After issuing a teaser media advisory, Liberal candidate Mitzie Hunter stood up at a podium to accuse the PCs of awarding patronage appointments to failed candidates after the 2018 election. Standing alongside a model train and vats of ‘gravy,’ Hunter declared that “Doug Ford’s gravy train never stopped — it just kept chugging along,” a reference to Ford’s previous days as a Toronto city hall watchdog.

The PC war room was quick to push back, circulating a 2016 press release from the Canadian Taxpayers Federation that revealed nine per cent of “federal and provincial Liberal candidates who failed, retired, or subsequently won an election between 2007 and 2016” were given appointments.

Why now? In the leadup to the provincial debate, campaigns are desperate to set the narrative and equip their leaders with effective attacks against their opponents. By releasing their carefully developed opposition research, the Liberals were certainly hoping to throw Ford off-kilter.

So did it work? Here’s what we saw on social media.

Social Media Volume

On Sunday, the Liberal accusations were quick to grab the attention of social media, with over 2,500 posts on the allegations. Unlike the gravy train though, interest did not keep chugging along. By debate day – likely to the chagrin the Liberals – next to no one was talking about it online.

Social Media Sentiment

Our analysis shows it may have been in Del Duca’s best interests for the story to quickly die. Hunter’s “gotcha” moment had many elements of an effective attack, but the percentage of supportive comments online were marginal. In turn, the Liberal attack failed to resonate, with many criticizing the hypocrisy, as well as the elaborate props.

Push Back Verdict – Flash in the Pan

While public appointments have been a sore spot for the PCs, it seems the gravy train left the station as soon as it arrived for the Liberals. It certainly didn’t work to raise the issue on a Sunday, a day where voters are typically less plugged in to the news cycle.

Unfortunately for the Liberals, it would seem Doug Ford’s team knows a gravy train when they see one. The swift and effective decision to claim hypocrisy, made for solid push back against the Liberal play. Liberal supporters became hesitant to engage with the story online at the risk of pointing out their own shortcomings. For a party that wants to disconnect itself from the failings of the past, this criticism left them vulnerable.

Welcome to this week’s edition of our Push Back analysis. Each week, we’re asking Ontario voters whether they think political parties are gaining or losing ground on the issues they care about most.

In this edition, we’ve asked Ontarians about who they think can best tackle affordability and the Liberal commitment to mandate COVID-19 vaccinations in schools. We also looked online to see if the recent candidate troubles experienced by the Liberals and PCs are having an impact and if organized labour endorsements are getting traction with voters.

Protecting Pocketbooks

As we noted previously, the cost of living is the top concern for voters by a landslide with 7 in 10 Ontarians identifying it as their most important issue in this election. The issue lands 20 points over health care, just as the focus on the pandemic begins to diminish. This week we asked Ontarians what party is best positioned to tackle this top voter concern.

While the PC and NDP’s plans are clearly resonating with many Ontarians, what is equally notable is the large percentage of Ontarians who either believe that none of the parties can solve the issue or are undecided. Fully 39 per cent of Ontarians did not identify a specific party as having the best affordability policies. This highlights the fact a lot of voters are essentially up for grabs if one of the parties can effectively bolster their affordability plan.

The Ontario Liberals, who trail by a good margin on this issue have tried to tackle the affordability issue with their “buck-a-ride” commitment and other policies such as removing the HST from prepared meals. Despite their buck-a-ride policy receiving significant engagement online, so far it seems they’ve been unable to gain traction with voters as the affordability champions.

Fighting the right fight?

Notably, the Liberals have been campaigning on changes to education, such as mandatory COVID-19 vaccination in schools and bringing back an optional Grade 13, putting less emphasis on the affordability issue. Although we found their mandatory COVID-19 vaccination policy had broad support across the province, education and COVID-19 remain low priorities overall for voters.

Candidate Trouble(s)

Over the past week, effective opposition and media research led to revelations about multiple candidates.

On May 10, media outlets first reported that Stephen Lecce, a high-profile PC candidate for King-Vaughan and Minister of Education, had been involved in a “slave auction” fraternity event while attending the University of Western Ontario in 2008. Lecce was quick to apologize for the incident and PC leader Doug Ford confirmed his party would support Lecce in the upcoming election, despite calls from teachers’ unions for him to be booted from the race.

Meanwhile, the Ontario Liberals were forced to drop three candidates in long-shot ridings and will no longer be contesting a full slate. Barry Stanley, the Liberal candidate for Parry Sound-Muskoka, lost his party’s nomination after reports revealed his homophobic conspiracy theories. The Liberals also dropped two of their youngest candidates, 18-year old Aidan Kallioinen in Sault. Ste Marie and 23-year old Alec Mazurek of Chatham-Kent-Leamington based on comments perceived to be homophobic that they made online as teenagers.

Breaking today is the fourth example of Liberal candidates making the news for past comments online. Noel Semple, carrying the party’s banner in Etobicoke Centre, has apologized for “hurtful” and “offensive” comments against the gay community. Media was quick to pounce on these stories – bad news makes for great press in an underwhelming election campaign – but are these issues gaining traction with everyday voters?

Online Analysis

As a high-profile cabinet minister with motivated stakeholders, the Lecce issue received more coverage. In the 24 hours after the incident was first reported on May 10, we saw a considerable spike in coverage with more than 7,000 social media posts on Wednesday. However, interest in the story quickly subsided, with just 2,000 posts on Thursday and coverage continuing to decrease on Friday.

Meanwhile, the three relatively unknown Liberal candidates received minimal media attention throughout the week, with only a slight increase in coverage on Friday when media outlets reported the Liberals would not field a full slate of candidates on the ballot.

Drop or Not?

The Liberals and PCs found themselves faced with a dilemma – whether to drop controversial candidates or stand by their choices.

Steven Del Duca was quick to dismiss the Liberals’ long-shot candidates. With little hope of winning in PC strongholds in rural Ontario, it seemed to be an easy decision for Del Duca to remove candidates with questionable views from the Liberal banner. But when an op-ed surfaced that revealed Etobicoke Centre candidate Noel Semple held anti-LGBTQ views, Del Duca was quick to change his tune – allowing him to stay on. Ultimately, in an election where every seat matters, the Ontario Liberal Party placed the bar much higher for the removal of candidates with controversial views where there was a real shot at winning.

Likewise, Doug Ford faced a difficult choice, Ford was hard pressed to desert one of his star cabinet ministers in a winnable riding. On Thursday, Ford noted that Lecce had apologized for his actions and said he would stand by him in the upcoming election.

Verdict – Winning the Battle, not the War

With coverage already subsiding, candidate issues seem unlikely to loom over the campaign. Our polling shows voters are most concerned about the cost of housing, groceries, transit, gas and daily necessities. Ontarians might not like what they’ve seen this past week but candidate gaffes (big or small) are unlikely to be what comes to mind when they head to the ballot box.

Fruits of Labour

In an “ABC” (anyone but conservative) move, this week the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation (OSSTF) announced endorsements for 14 NDP candidates and 10 Liberal candidates in the Toronto area. OSSTF has also released their NDP and Liberal picks in Peel Region, London, York Region and other parts of the province.

However, not all unions are falling in line and endorsing NDP candidates. Premier Ford and the PC’s concerted effort to woo organized labour, including passing the Working for Workers Act, which banned non-compete clauses and raised the minimum wage, seem to be bearing fruit for the party.

Late last month the Laborers’ International Union of North America (LiUNA), which represents 80,000 workers across Ontario, endorsed Ford. In an interview following the endorsement, LiUNA International Vice-President and Manager Central and Eastern Canada Joe Mancinelli stated that “the Ford government has done more in these four years when it comes to labour, labour legislation, for workers and training than Del Duca’s Liberals did when they were in office.” On Wednesday, the PCs secured another labour endorsement from the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers (IBB).

Online Analysis

The below graph shows that social media volume about the three recent union endorsements has been low, with the OSSTF’s endorsement of the NDP receiving the highest level of engagement, peaking at 168 mentions. Volume then quickly dissipated and sat at 25 mentions after three days. The two PC endorsements followed almost identical paths, peaking at just under 50 mentions and eroding from there.

Verdict – Can’t Be Seen

Although the OSSTF’s endorsement of the NDP got the highest volume of mentions online, it only peaked at 168 mentions, far fewer than the top stories of the day like the controversy surrounding several PC and Liberal candidates.

However, social media conversation cannot paint a complete picture of the impact that a union endorsement can have on any of the campaigns. Unions can be effective at organizing their members to knock on doors, volunteer and get out the vote on election day. These boots on the ground can have a massive impact in close ridings where every vote matters.

Have any questions about the news out of Queen’s Park this week? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.