This week, Brayden Akers was a panellist on the QP Briefing Podcast. Shownotes are included below, and you can listen to the episode on the QP Briefing website.
The fourth week of the Ontario election is on the books! This week saw the NDP and Liberals go at one another, while Doug Ford’s lead held steady. Be sure to tune in, folks.
The wonderful panel includes outgoing NDP MPP Suze Morrison, McMillan Vantage’s Ashley Csanady, and Navigator’s Brayden Akers.
Welcome back to the Push Back after the long weekend lull. While everyone was away from their inboxes, we took the opportunity to ask Ontarians what their voting intentions are for the upcoming election. We also looked at the main reasons why PC voters are choosing to vote this way. Let’s take a look.
In our survey fielded from May 16-19, 30 per cent of voters said they are voting for the PCs, with the NDP falling 14 points behind in second place. The Liberals lands in a close third place, only three points behind the NDP. Most notably 28 per cent of voters remain undecided on who they intend to vote for with only nine days left in this election.
In our decided vote polling, it showed a greater margin of victory for the PCs at 45 per cent, whereas the NDP trailed at only 23 per cent of the vote.
The PCs continue to have their strongest support amongst male individuals, those earning over $100,00 a year, and voters over the age of 55, with 62 per cent having college, technical or university-level education. Ford’s support is strongest in eastern Ontario (36 per cent) and the Greater Toronto Area (905) (32 per cent), and weakest in downtown Toronto (416) (25 per cent).
The PCs are leading by a sizable margin, with most Ontarians voting PC because they think other political parties would just do a worse job in government. While 18 per cent of PC voters say the main reason they will vote for Doug Ford is because PC policies address issues they care about, only 14 per cent say the main reason for their vote is because they like Ford.
As noted in our previous editions, the cost of living continues to be a top issue for voters. Among PC voters, 70 per cent say the main reason they are voting PC is due to Ford’s policies to address the cost of living. Ford has already announced plans to lower the gas tax and has ended the vehicle registration fees, which appears to be resonating with voters.
Other important reasons for voting PCs include Ford’s policies around job creation and the economy (54 per cent) – a traditional area of strength for conservatives – and his support for building more infrastructure, including highways and transit (47 per cent).
Over the weekend, a deadly storm swept through the province resulting in 10 casualties and leaving thousands without power, especially in eastern Ontario. On Sunday, Ontario Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca latched onto the natural disaster. Del Duca announced the suspension of his campaign in order to visit areas of Eastern Ontario which were hard hit by the storm. At a press conference, he openly criticized the Premier’s alleged absence from storm-hit areas.
Meanwhile, during an unannounced visit to Uxbridge to survey the damage, Ford stated that his top priority is to restore power across the region after the storm severely damaged hydro infrastructure and properties.
While some Ottawa and GTA residents criticized the Premier’s absence, others pushed back on Del Duca for politicizing a tragedy saying that he was continuing to campaign in Ottawa using a natural disaster to attack the Premier at a time when leaders should be coming together.
So, how did Del Duca’s attack play with Ontario voters?
While politicizing a natural disaster may have played well in party war rooms, the issue got minimal traction with Ontario voters. Even at the height of coverage on Saturday, Del Duca’s criticism of Doug Ford was the subject of less than 13,000 social media posts, compared to 45,000 posts discussing the cost of living and inflation and more than 118,000 posts about housing affordability. We would preface these observations by noting there were widespread power outages and Ontarians may have also been taking a social media break due to the long weekend.
Among those who were paying attention to the incident, many residents in eastern Ontario sided with Del Duca in asking why Ford was not prioritizing the hardest-hit region of the province. In total, 58 per cent of tweets sided with Del Duca in criticizing Ford, while 10 per cent of tweets sided with Ford and accused Del Duca of politicizing the incident.
The most prolific social media posts came directly from PC and Liberal candidates and their staff. Posts from candidates were excluded from the sentiment chart below.
We would characterize this incident as a “swing and miss.” While Liberal staff were anxious to jump on Doug Ford’s absence, voters seemed more concerned with pocketbook issues of inflation and housing affordability. While social media posts largely sided with Del Duca on the incident, those posting were already some of the most highly engaged Liberal supporters and were unlikely to vote for Ford in the first place. The online conversation (or lack thereof) suggests that politicizing a natural disaster does not make for good politics.
Have any questions about the news out of Queen’s Park this week? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.
This week, Brayden Akers was a panellist on the QP Briefing Podcast. Shownotes are included below, and you can listen to the episode on the QP Briefing website.
The third week of the Ontario election is on the books! This week saw the leaders on stage at the TVO Debate in Toronto. Andrea Horwath and Mike Schreiner both got COVID, and the Liberals had a less-than-scandalous news conference. Be sure to tune in, folks.
Thanks to our wonderful panel: former NDP MPP Suze Morrison, McMillan Vantage’s Ashley Csanady, and Navigator’s Brayden Akers.
It’s two weeks away from Election Day. Our major party leaders have been through the wringer with two debates, plenty of attack ads, candidate fiascos, and in the case of Horwath and Schreiner, taken out by the ultimate opponent, COVID-19.
The announcement is perhaps untimely for Horwath, who continues to drag in the polls. The latest Nanos poll has pegged the NDP at just 20 per cent, trailing the PCs at 36 per cent and the Liberals at 29 per cent. Leger’s May 18 poll also revealed 37 per cent of decided voters would vote PC, 28 per cent Liberal and 23 per cent NDP if the election were held today. BUT 46 per cent of decided voters said they may change their minds in the voting booth on Election Day.
As we noted in last week’s Friday edition of The Push Back, some private sector unions have broken ranks with their fellow unions in their traditional ties with the Liberals and NDP. While OPSEU and the Ontario Federation of Labour threw their support behind the NDP, we saw more unions endorse the PCs this week. The International Union of Painters and Allied Trades (IUPAT), the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers (SMART), and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) have all thrown their support behind the PCs this week.
Some have likened this flurry of PC union endorsements to the “hard hat revolution” in the U.S. during the 1970s, which saw many union members throw their support behind Richard Nixon. While there are parallels to be drawn, Nixon’s allure was his opposition to the liberal cultural movement that had swept America over the previous decade. Similarly, Ford is racking up endorsements because of the pro-worker policies that his government introduced over the last four years, including the Working for Workers Act.
It should be noted that Ford has not won union support across the board. As noted, public sector unions have maintained their support for the left-leaning parties. Public sector support for the NDP and Liberals can partially be attributed to their platforms on organized labour, but can also be attributed to some of the setbacks that these unions have faced under the Ford government, including Bill 124 which capped public sector wages at a one per cent annual increase for three years and return to office policies.
But do union endorsements really matter? Did Ontario voters notice? Let’s look at the numbers.
The below graph shows that initially, there was limited conversation about union endorsements. Volume increased slightly for the NDP around May 9 when several of their candidates were endorsed by the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation (OSSTF). It wasn’t until May 15 that activity spiked, especially when it became clear that the PCs were going to secure endorsements from most construction unions. Yesterday, there were 710 mentions of the PCs endorsements on Twitter, dwarfing the volume seen by any of the other parties. Also of note, the Liberals have received almost no attention about their limited union endorsements, which is unusual given how heavily unions supported the Liberals in the 2014 and 2018 elections.
Last week, we concluded that the effects of the union endorsements “can’t be seen.” To some extent, this is still true. By severely limiting the advertising power of unions and third parties in 2018, they no longer have the power they once did to influence voters. The biggest effect that unions still have is their ability to mobilize their members to knock on doors, make phone calls and get out the vote on election day. It’s unclear whether the pro-PC private sector unions are better organized than the “anything but conservative” public sector unions. For the time being, our insights show that PC endorsements have mattered more to voters and we’re fielding research next week to test our hypothesis further. Stay tuned for that update.
Suffice it to say, if Ford and the PCs can continue to effectively push back on the old narrative of the PCs being anti-labour, build on the momentum the party has seen this week and effectively position the PCs as the working-class party of this election, it will be difficult for the Liberals or NDP to beat him on Election Day.
Have any questions about the news out of Queen’s Park this week? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.
More than 24 hours have lapsed on the second and last debate with the leaders of Ontario’s four major political parties. Did the leaders make an impression? Did they gain or lose ground with voters? Or were voters even aware of the debate? We took a quick look at the social media trends post-debate with today’s Push Back Spotlight.
Unsurprisingly, Doug Ford dominated the conversation online with overall mentions of the PC leader far higher than that of his opponents. Trailing behind was Liberal leader Steven Del Duca, with his quick jabs and live fact-checks generating some sizeable traction. Likely to the chagrin of NDP leader Andrea Horwath, the strong performance of the Green Party’s Mike Schreiner rivaled and even exceeded that of the official opposition’s.
In an election where affordability is king, we were surprised to see that education dominated the online conversation during Monday’s debate. Del Duca hammered Ford on his public education record, citing the difficult experiences felt by kids studying online during the pandemic.
Sentiment analysis revealed many critics of Ford’s performance Monday, with quips about the PC leader’s binder providing online opponents with much to talk about. Del Duca, on the other hand elicited a more balanced response from viewers, which was likely more lukewarm than he was hoping for. Of note, was online talk about Schreiner’s performance with our sentiment analysis revealing an overwhelmingly positive response.
Doug Ford and Steven Del Duca were able to hold their own in the debate and not lose ground to opponents. Ford bore the brunt of many attacks but continued to face opponents with a cool head. Likewise, Del Duca was able to take the high ground with his education agenda, an area where the PCs have been both traditionally and currently weak. However, this is not a change election and it is likely Ford will benefit from the incumbent advantage with his avoidance of missteps during the debate.
If there was a loser, it was Andrea Horwath with her apparent nervousness and failure to own the progressive agenda at the podium. Even on social disability, Horwath acknowledged Schreiner and the Greens had been an influence to change the NDP’s own policy commitment.
We think Mike Schreiner deserves an honourable mention for his crisp messages and radiating confidence. Ford felt Schreiner’s wrath on attacks that were clear, pointed and disarming. Unlike Horwath, Schreiner was able to connect with the audience, steering the conversation away from petty squabbles and towards facts and accountability.
