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The most consequential lieutenant-governor in Ontario’s history

If you want to understand who she is, just ask.

Ask people in every corner of this province, parliamentarians of every stripe, leaders of every description. From Thunder Bay to the Eastern Townships, just ask. And they all will tell you this: Elizabeth Dowdeswell is not only the very personification of public service but that, by the force and endurance of that service, she has made Ontario a better place.

Long before Elizabeth Dowdeswell was lieutenant-governor of this province, she was, at her very essence, a public servant. She started her career as a teacher. Served in the Saskatchewan and federal public services. Was the under-secretary-general of the UN and executive director of the UN Environment Programme. Appointed CEO of numerous domestic and international organizations of importance. Worked in Stockholm and Swift Current, New York and Nairobi.

And so, when she was appointed to this new role, those who knew her knew she would bring a truly sui generis tool box with her. What we could not have imagined was just what she would build with it: an unparalleled legacy of leadership.

Legacies like hers don’t merely reinforce and uphold institutions. At their most powerful, they convince even the skeptics of the institution’s value.

When it comes to the Crown in this country, I have, over years, become skeptical. This past April, I wrote that the time had come for Canada to cast off the monarchy. But there’s an old saying: the greater the doubt, the greater the awakening. And, in this case, my doubts about the institution have only intensified my admiration for the woman who represented it for nearly a decade. Who understood her role was not about pomp or ceremony, but rather about people. About honouring our everyday heroes whose selfless and quiet work reinforce our social fabric. About giving a platform for those who feel voiceless, who feel that no one is listening. About the acts of empathy and kindness that not only transcend the trappings of an antique institution but, more significantly, of politics itself.

From all that Elizabeth Dowdeswell has achieved for the people of Ontario, from all that she has built, I’m left with this thought: if the monarchy is to be anything in this next era of Canadian life, it will be about the kind of things that are the exact opposite of the assumptions it attracts: elitist, ineffectual, ancient history.

If it is to survive it will be about the humility and service our late Queen exemplified.

It will be about how each one of us can achieve extraordinary things for our community.

It will be about the days ahead and how we can make those days better for all those who will come after us.

If it is to survive, it will be embodied by people like Elizabeth Dowdeswell. It will be about the ideals she encouraged us never to give up on.

Emerson said that, in life, our chief want is for someone who will make us do what we can. The observation is true in the individual sense, but it’s even more true, even more powerful, in the communal. To believe these words is to believe in the potential we collectively hold. Through all her efforts, Dowdeswell demonstrated that belief. That we can see past our differences, support one another and solve our greatest challenges.

On Tuesday, the guns will sound across Queen’s Park and her tenure will officially draw to a close. “The longest-serving lieutenant-governor in Ontario’s history.” That’s what most headlines will say. But those headlines will miss the real story: that Elizabeth Dowdeswell was Ontario’s most consequentiallieutenant-governor.

Just ask.

Spend Money, Make Money?

This afternoon, the Ontario government tabled its 2023 fall economic statement titled “The 2023 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review: Building a Strong Ontario Together.” Below, you will find a summary of the key points from the statement.

Need to Know

  • The Ontario government is propping up an all-new $3 billion Ontario infrastructure bank, targeted at housing, long-term care facilities, energy, housing, municipal infrastructure and transportation projects.
  • Affordability is front and centre with the extension of the government’s 10-cents-a-litre gas tax cut until June 2024 and taking the provincial portion of the HST off of purpose-built rental housing projects.
  • Inflationary pressures, high interest rates and geopolitical unrest has led to Ontario reporting a deficit of $5.6 billion for 2023-24, four times the $1.3 billion it projected in its March budget earlier this year, delaying a balanced budget to 2026.

Why It Matters

  • The channel changer: The PCs hope the splash of a new infrastructure bank will not just be a distraction from Greenbelt politics, but reunite public opinion around the urgency of getting housing built.
    • Ontario is learning from the pitfalls of its federal cousin and giving its new bank a clear, independent mandate to get needed housing and infrastructure built with the help of Canada’s top pension funds and other leading institutional players, who are conveniently located on their doorstep.
  • The big picture: With the proposed bank and more money for Invest Ontario and a flow-through share tax credit, the PCs continue to signal that Ontario is “open for business” and ready to support the $26 billion in new investments in its EV and battery sector.
  • The stretch goal: The government is temporarily abandoning the path to a balanced budget and their fiscally conservative principles with Ontarians reporting cost of living as their top issue and struggling to pay higher interest on mortgages.

What’s new

Ontario Infrastructure Bank

The provincial government is setting up a new arms-length $3 billion infrastructure bank to attract private money from institutions, such as pension and insurance funds. Going into large projects with these institutional investors reduces the risk of these projects and helps attract more private capital.

Zoom in: The bank’s initial focus will be primarily on housing, but also on long-term care, energy and transit. The government has also said the bank would help enable more Indigenous-sponsored projects.

Zoom out: Several other jurisdictions have used infrastructure banks to sponsor large infrastructure projects, including California, UK, Australia and Germany.

The bottom line: With differing opinions on the success of the Canada Infrastructure Bank, it will be up to the provincial government to demonstrate results – and more importantly – value for money.

What’s next: In the near future, we can expect the province to unveil the bank’s governance structure, including its interim chair board and leadership team.

Honourable Mentions

  • Allocating an additional $100 million for Invest Ontario, the province’s investment attraction agency, to support businesses and attract jobs in the province.
    • The agency is focused on attracting investments in advanced manufacturing, life sciences, and technology.
  • Enhancing the Ontario Focused Flow-Through Share Tax Credit to serve as a stimulus for critical minerals exploration.
  • Implementing a Target Benefit Framework that will serve to regulate retirement plans primarily seen in the skilled trades sector.
  • Introducing legislative changes to strengthen the province’s litigation when it comes to holding international pharmaceutical companies accountable for the opioid crisis.
  • Introducing a $200 million Housing-Enabling Water Systems Fund (over three years) to support municipalities, prevent flooding, and enable housing development.
  • Matching the federal government with a legislative (or excise) vaping tax to promote better health outcomes.
  • Enacting certain capital markets reforms through legislative changes to the Securities Act and Commodity Futures Act.
  • Previewing that the results of the ongoing tax reform consultations will be shared as part of Budget 2024.

By the numbers

  • The new deficit projection for 2023-24 is now $5.6 billion, $5.3 billion next year, and a “modest surplus” is expected to be reported in 2026.
  • Interestingly, the government added a top-up of $2.5 billion to the contingency fund, in addition to the $1 billion reserve fund.
  • The government is investing a total of $185 billion over 10 years in its capital plan to build more hospitals, schools, transit, highways and long-term care homes. There are no additions or changes to the capital plan since the March budget.

ICYMI

As a reminder, the government announced the “big ticket” items from FES earlier this week, including:

  • Extending the gas tax cut until the end of June 2024.
  • Axing the province’s cut of HST (harmonized sales tax) on purpose-built rentals to incentivize housing construction.
  • Expanding breast cancer screenings to women 40+ starting in Fall 2024.

Next Steps

  • Budget consultations: The Finance Minister starts trekking across the province next week for budget consultations.
    • With the Fall Economic Statement unveiled, the province will quickly turn its attention to preparing the 2024 Budget, which means pre-budget consultations are right around the corner.
    • While more details on formal consultations will be released in the coming weeks, stakeholders can already start sending their ideas to submissions@ontario.ca to be considered.
  • FES legislation: The government will be working to get the FES bill and other key pieces of legislation on the docket this fall passed before the winter break hits in early December.

Stay Tuned

Our team will keep our eyes peeled on the FES legislation and the new Ontario Infrastructure Bank.

If you have any questions about today’s announcements, please reach out our team of political veterans at info@navltd.com.

Federal Budget 2023

A (Too?) Timid Response to Challenging Times

Budget 2023 notionally delivers the response that had been expected of the government to address affordability issues facing Canadian families, reflects recent intergovernmental agreements on health care funding, and addresses the US administration’s “green industrial policy” investments. In actuality, the budget seems too timid a response to too many disparate policy and political imperatives to make a meaningful impact on any single one of them.

From a political perspective, the suite of measures aimed at addressing the rising cost of living is understandable. Exclusive public opinion data collected by Discover by Navigator in the days leading up to today’s budget confirm that addressing cost of living issues was the top priority of Canadians at 39 per cent, beating out lowering taxes (21 per cent) and reducing government spending (20 per cent). These measures will also serve to buttress the deal negotiated a year ago with the New Democratic Party, notably the additional investments in dental care – a long-standing NDP priority.

Like Budget 2022, which was shaped by rising inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Budget 2023 is more a response to outside pressures than the expression of the Government of Canada’s desired policy direction. The question is whether the measures announced today will constitute a robust enough response to the Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, the demands of our increasingly strained health care system or the still-too-heavy burden of the rising cost of living on family budgets to make a meaningful; difference. Only time will tell, which may, in the end, be the one thing the government was playing for in designing this budget.

You can download our budget analysis here.

For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com

West Coast Shifts (w/ Kevin Falcon, BC Liberal Leader)

In the final episode of our four-part series on politics in the western provinces, Jason is joined by the leader of the BC Liberals, Kevin Falcon. The two discuss the big changes that took place in the province over the past year, including two new party leaders and the forthcoming change in name for the BC Liberals. They also dive into policy and look at what Kevin’s priorities are for the year ahead!