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Uncertainty: Alberta Braces for Choppy Economic Waters​

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The first two months of 2025 have seen a shift in the global economic context, and governments have been forced to adapt. Last year was about responsibly building the province, this year it’s about confronting new challenges head-on.

Alberta remains one of the fastest-growing provinces in Canada, and that growth continues to put pressure on the services Albertans count on every day. New this year are the ongoing trade conflicts with the U.S., which threaten to put significant downward economic pressure on not just Alberta but the entire global economy.

The fiscal framework introduced in 2023 was meant to keep Alberta’s financial situation in check and the province’s spending within its means. Those guardrails allow for deviation in the event of extraordinary circumstances—and these are extraordinary circumstances.

For the first time in Premier Smith’s tenure, the Government of Alberta is forecasting a $5.2 billion deficit, which will be reduced over the next three years. The deficit results from a doubling of the Government’s fiscal contingency in response to global volatility, as well as a significant increase in government spending while revenue remains stagnant. Almost every department will see an increase in their budget, and spending on new capital projects has increased by more than $1 billion.

Budget 2025 is unchartered waters for a UCP government, but as Minister Horner said in his address, “we are in a difficult time.”

You can find our full analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.

Data breaches are on the rise – and Canadians expect their businesses to be prepared

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In a polarized, digital first, and deeply interconnected economy and society, data breaches are on the rise from both a frequency and cost perspective. PwC’s 2025 Global Digital Trust Insights survey found that the average cost to an organization of a data breach has risen to $3.32 million per incident. Their increasing frequency has not resulted in increasing acceptance.

Canadians are more concerned, more alert, and more judgemental of the enterprises they interact with when it comes to protecting their data. Exclusive research from Navigator reveals that 85% of Canadians are worried about data breaches with 66% reporting increased concern compared to three years ago. For industries handling sensitive information, the concern level is even more acute.

Concern Around Data Breaches Per Industry

Growing concern is stacked on top of an absence of trust, with only 40% of respondents believing that businesses affected by breaches have adequately addressed customer concerns or resolved issues. Is this anxiety fueled by high-profile incidents such as the Canada Revenue Agency and Ticketmaster breaches? Likely in part.

But it’s amplified by some of the driving technological changes of the day – changes that are only intensifying.

  • Widespread adoption of artificial intelligence has struck a nerve, with 70% of Canadians expressing that the technology poses a greater risk compared to just 39% who see it as a valuable tool for preventing breaches.
  • Concern over state-sponsored threats is growing with 71% of Canadians believing that state-sponsored cyber threats will increase over the next five years and 65% expressing concern that Canadian entities are vulnerable to such breaches.
  • The rise of ransomware extortion poses complex legal, ethical, and financial questions. While the Government of Canada does not recommend ransom payments, 77% of Canadians agree that it is important to pay ransom (when applicable) to prevent or limit the spread of customer information.

Forging a Path Forward

Despite these challenges, every business has the opportunity to do right by doing right, showcasing to their customers, employees and stakeholders that they have responded swiftly, with transparency and speed. Specifically:

  • 93% of Canadians emphasized the importance of enhancing security measures, including implementing new systems, conducting staff training, and reviewing policies.
  • 92% believe businesses should offer free credit monitoring and conduct a thorough, transparent investigation.
  • 92% highlighted the importance of notifying clients immediately.

While every scenario brings its own qualities, we remind Canadian organizations to use the following principles in preparation for and response to a breach.

  1. Speed beats perfection, preparation enhances speed: As soon as you are aware of a breach, the clock is ticking on your first notification to affected stakeholders. Timely transparency is critical to maintaining trust. Simple and cost-effective preparatory steps can go a long way in building out your crisis and cyber response capabilities.
  2. Lead from the front: Activate an integrated crisis response team led by a decisive C-suite leader. Streamline communications by appointing a single spokesperson to manage messaging and maintain consistency.
  3. Develop, practice and implement a crisis management framework: It’s not a question of if, but when. Prepare for the inevitable with a tailored, practiced crisis communications plan, cyber incident response plan and business continuity plan that leaves guesswork at the door when a breach occurs. Regular exercising of these plans is critical.
  4. Engage with Key Stakeholders: Communicate proactively with employees, customers, partners, and regulators. Trust is rebuilt when stakeholders are at the heart of decision-making.
  5. Provide tangible support to affected customers: Canadians need to see you work to protect their data. Free credit monitoring, identity theft protection, or the establishment of a dedicated hotline can showcase your commitment to customers and their recovery, reinforcing your organization’s accountability.
  6. Find and communicate remedial steps: Take immediate action to strengthen your defences. Upgrading systems, conducting audits, and training employees sends a clear message: your organization is serious about preventing future breaches.
  7. Leverage external experts: Bring in trusted professionals, like Navigator, PwC, and a legal breach coach to validate your response. Highlighting external expertise reassures stakeholders and demonstrates your commitment to professional recovery.
  8. Monitor and manage public sentiment: Track media and social sentiment to gauge public reactions. Use these insights to refine your messaging, ensuring it is empathetic, nuanced, and aligned with stakeholder expectations.
  9. Share lessons learned: Be transparent about how you addressed the breach and what improvements have been made. Sharing lessons learned demonstrates accountability and positions your organization as a leader in trust recovery.
  10. Conduct a post-crisis response and reputation audit: Evaluate your response, stakeholder sentiment, and reputational risks. Use these insights to refine strategies, rebuild trust, and strengthen your crisis management framework.

Want to learn more?

Looking to gain deeper insights and better understand how to prepare your organization to effectively respond to and recover from a data breach? Connect with one of our experts today. Book a consultation by contacting us at info@navltd.com or ca_incident_response@pwc.com

Methodology

The results presented in this summary report are based on an online survey undertaken by Navigator among a sample of 1,500 adult Canadians from November 29 to December 3, 2024. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population with regards to gender, age, and education, according to Statistics Canada census data. A completely random survey with this sample size (n=1500) would yield a margin of error of +/-2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Download a copy of the research summary below:

Whose FES is it anyway? Canada’s 2024 Fall Economic Statement

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If the government had a story to tell with today’s Fall Economic Statement (“FES”), it went up in flames as Chrystia Freeland delivered a scathing resignation citing disagreements with the Prime Minister over fiscal priorities. ​

What we are left with is a rare “backroom” FES, with no Finance Minister to communicate the government’s vision – or lack thereof – in the face of a $61.9 billion deficit and the threat of a trade war with our largest trading partner.​

Picking up the scraps, we are left with a GST holiday (or a “political gimmick” as Freeland alluded in her resignation), a $17.4 billion corporate tax incentive, and a suite of border and security measures.​

While the loser of today’s events is irrefutably the government itself, there are several wins for corporate Canada: The extension of the Accelerated Investment Incentive, significant investments in AI, and an enhanced SR&ED program are likely to be well received by business. ​

Fiscal hawks, however, are likely to be disappointed as Finance Canada adds $21.8 billion to the deficit – driven by ”significant unexpected expenses related to Indigenous contingent liabilities”. ​

Most importantly, the government has finally presented a response to the existential threat of Trump’s proposed tariffs: with new spending on the CBSA, RCMP, CSE, and Public Safety. All eyes are on Mar-a-lago to see if these commitments will help dissuade the threat of 25% tariffs which would decimate economies on both sides of the border.​

You can find our analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.

Restoring Balance to the Province: Ontario Fall Economic Statement

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Yesterday, Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy released the province’s Fall Economic Statement (FES). While the Liberals and NDP criticized the FES for a lack of new initiatives, Tories say the mini budget reflects their core value of fiscal responsibility without compromising key investments for Ontario workers and families. There’s a lot to digest between moving towards a balanced budget and new investments. Don’t worry, we have got you covered:

Fiscally Responsible Ford Government

The biggest piece of information: government revenues are up $7 billion, and the government projects a balanced budget in 2026-2027.

With revenue on the rise, the Progressive Conservatives reduced the deficit to $6.6 billion, projecting a balanced budget in 2026, with the option to balance in 2025 ahead of an early election. Provincial revenues are as high as ever, according to the government, with an increase of nearly $60 billion since 2018. The main drivers for this? The government says strong support for businesses, a growing economy and no increases in sales tax.

The FES also provides an update on LCBO’s revenues. While the 2024-2025 figures will result in a slight decline, the government is confident revenues will reach $8.5 billion in 2026-2027, $100 million more than projected in the 2024 budget, despite the expansion of alcohol sales to big box retailers and convenience stores across the province.

The Big Winners

The first pillar of the government’s FES is built on re-investing into Ontario’s economy, specifically highlighting the province’s manufacturing and life sciences sectors. The major announcements within the budget include:

  • $94 million as part of Phase 2 of the Life Sciences Strategy;
  • An additional $100 million into the Invest Ontario Fund;
  • Another $40 million to extend the Advanced Manufacturing and Innovation Competitiveness Stream; and
  • Extending and enhancing the Time-Limited tax Relief for the Electricity Distribution Sector until December 31, 2028.

Municipalities get more support

Following the 2024 budget, Ontario’s Big City Mayors commended the government for “listening to municipalities” and addressing infrastructure deficits across the province.

The Ontario government is doubling down on supporting municipalities, with an emphasis on smaller communities.

  • $100 million over the next two years to increase the Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund. This is the primary transfer payment from the province to municipalities, giving smaller townships with less income, more funds to operate;
  • $1 billion for the new Municipal Infrastructure Program to support projects enabling housing starts in growing communities; and
  • Enhancing the Housing-Enabling Water Systems Fund to $825 million.

The province is also prioritizing supporting Ontario taxpayers with direct reimbursements, including tax rebates and cuts, simplifying payment methods for transit, and tying supports to inflation. More specifically, the province is:

  • Proposing to provide a $200 taxpayer rebate, for all eligible adult Ontario tax filers, plus an additional $200 for each eligible child under 18 whose families qualify for a Canada Child Benefit payment for 2024;
  • Proposing to extend the current temporary gas tax and fuel tax rate cuts keeping the rates at nine cents per liter until June 30, 2025;
  • Launching One Fare so transit riders only pay once for transfers between transit systems in the Greater Toronto Area; and
  • Expanding the Ontario Guaranteed Annual Income System (GAINS) program and indexing the GAINS benefit to inflation.

Primary care takes primary role

Finally, the province is redoubling its efforts to invest in healthcare, focusing on primary care training, fertility care accessibility and supporting seniors. Specific strategies include:

  • Extending Ontario’s Learn and Stay program by providing an additional $17.7 million for 2026-27;
  • Expanding the Ontario Fertility Program by $150 million and committing to introduce a new fertility tax credit in 2025;
  • Prioritizing access for Ontario residents for medical school seats; and
  • Investing $17 million over the next 3 years to support 100 new Seniors Active Living Centres.

Why it matters

  • This FES represents the return to a fiscal norm that Tories have been craving, especially after payouts surrounding Bill 124 had inflated Ford’s deficit to higher levels than promised.
  • The contents of the FES, especially the $200 taxpayer rebate, are all important incentives for the PC’s to offer voters as they gear up for a potential early election in the spring of next year.

Opposition says FES focused on wrong issues

Liberals

According to Ontario Liberals, Doug Ford is “failing to do his job and address the issues that really matter to Ontario families.” The Liberals did not hold back when commenting on this year’s FES, criticizing the government on two main topics, health care and prioritizing Ontario’s wealthiest.

Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie focused on Ford’s desire to put “his rich friends first”:

  • “Doug Ford is more focused on billion-dollar giveaways to wealthy insiders than he is on fixing health care. People are dying on waitlists, and Doug Ford is spending billions on booze, foreign spas and the Greenbelt scandal.”

This response is consistent with their month-long criticism of Ford’s handling of Ontario’s health care system.

NDP

Similar to the Liberals, the NDP framed Ford’s fiscally focused FES as out-of-touch with the lived realities of everyday Ontarians.

In a statement, Leader of the Opposition Marit Stiles claimed Ontarians “aren’t getting what they paid for,” arguing it is filled with “stale ideas and empty promises.” Specifically, the NDP pointed out the reduced amount of housing starts, delay of transit projects, and lack of supports to address the cost of living as major oversights.

Saskatchewan Provincial Election

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The Saskatchewan Party (Sask Party) made history on October 28, 2024, becoming Canada’s longest-serving provincial government by winning a record fifth term. While voters ultimately demonstrated continued trust in Moe’s leadership, seeking solutions for health-care capacity, improvements to the education system, and relief from affordability challenges, the NDP made significant gains, nearly doubling their seat count from 14 in the 2020 election.

Backed by Rural Strongholds: Sask Party Wins Record Fifth Term

As of Tuesday morning, the Sask Party won 32 of 61 seats in the Legislature (with leads in three more), down from the 48 seats they won in 2020. Upstart right-wing parties like the Saskatchewan United Party (SUP) didn’t dent rural support enough to cause a problem for Moe’s Sask Party but the party did sustain significant losses in urban areas, particularly in Regina where it appears they failed to win a single seat, as of the time of writing. This urban divide was also evident in the popular vote: the Sask Party captured 65 per cent in rural regions but only about 40 per cent in both Regina and Saskatoon, trailing the NDP’s 55 per cent and 57 per cent, respectively.

Moe seemed to acknowledge this issue Monday, adopting a cooperative tone in his victory speech. He referenced potential perceptions of a divided province but emphasized that, regardless of how they voted, Saskatchewanians cast their ballots with the province’s best interests in mind. We expect the NDP to highlight this looming division given there will be very few urban voices in cabinet, in a province where most of the population lives in cities. Moving forward, we’ll be watching how the Sask Party navigates urban voters and their priorities.

The preliminary seat count stands at:

  • Saskatchewan Party: 32 (leading in 3)
  • NDP: 22 (leading in 4)

Key Battlegrounds That Carried the Day

As late as Saturday, October 26, polling showed both parties in a near deadlock. Despite significant changes to Saskatchewan’s electoral map, the NDP proved unsuccessful in breaking the rural wall. Urban voters were a different story. The results in key ridings led to the loss of five Sask Party ministers’ seats:

  • Justice Minister and Attorney General Bronwyn Eyre lost her seat in Saskatoon Stonebridge, where the NDP’s Darcy Warrington won with 53.8 per cent of the vote.
  • Parks, Culture and Sport Minister Laura Ross lost her seat in Regina Roachdale. A Sask Party MLA since 2007, Ross was defeated by the NDP’s Joan Pratchler, who won with 52.6 per cent of the vote.
  • In a close race, Environment Minister Christine Tell may lose her seat in Regina Wascana Plains to the NDP’s Brent Blakely by just 4 per cent. The result may have been influenced by SUP candidate Dustin Plett, who currently holds 4.5 per cent of the vote.
  • Social Services Minister Gene Makowsky lost his Regina University seat to the NDP’s Sally Housser, who won with 51 per cent of the vote.
  • Minister of Corrections, Policing and Public Safety Paul Merriman may lose his seat in Saskatoon Silverspring-Sutherland to the NDP’s Hugh Gordon in a tight race, currently trailing by 3.3 per cent.

A Change Election? Yes and No

In an innovative approach to the 2024 provincial election, Elections Saskatchewan introduced “voting week” for the first time, with polls open the week prior to election day. As a result, and in keeping with trends in other provinces, Saskatchewan Elections reported that 273,010 people cast early ballots, with nearly 35,000 more votes cast during the first 48 hours of advanced polling than in the 2020 provincial election.

Elections Saskatchewan reported early Tuesday morning that just under 53 per cent of those eligible to cast a ballot did so, showing no uptick from 2020 and a decrease in voter turnout from 2016. According to Navigator’s research, advance turn-out is increasingly a function of convenience for voters, rather than a strong desire to seek change. Parties, particularly the Sask Party, would do well to acknowledge that voters in at least Regina and Saskatoon were looking for change and the party will have a strong opposition to contend with in the next four years.

A Fearsome Opposition Forms

Nearly doubling their previous seat count of 14 by winning over 10 new seats in the Legislature, the Saskatchewan NDP will gain a significantly larger caucus budget. This boost could pose challenges for the Sask Party, as the NDP will now be able to hire more staff and allocate more resources toward research. If they strategically leverage these advantages, they could mount a robust opposition over the next four years, establishing themselves as a formidable opponent in the next provincial election.

Cabinet Potential

Scott Moe is expected to announce a new cabinet in mid-November. Four high profile cabinet ministers announced their retirements before the election, and five additional ministers are projected to lose their seats, meaning that while many familiar faces are likely to remain and be in line for a promotion to the coveted job at Finance in particular, the appointment of newcomers to the cabinet table will be necessary.

Incumbent MLAs to watch as Moe decides his next cabinet include:

  • Warren Keading (Melville-Saltcoats)
  • Colleen Young (Lloydminster)
  • Terry Jenson (Warman)
  • Travis Keisig (Last Mountain-Touchwood)
  • Alana Ross (Prince Albert Northcote)

As the government ramps back up, we can expect a short legislative session kicked off by a throne speech ahead of the holidays.

Have any questions about the Saskatchewan Election? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.