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The People Have Spoken: Ontario’s Next Chapter

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Premier Doug Ford won a third consecutive mandate after calling an early election more than a year ahead of schedule. Riding the high of his alter ego, Captain Canada, Ford successfully positioned himself as the leader best prepared to protect Ontario from the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Speaking at his victory party, Ford said he needed “a strong mandate that outlives and outlasts the Trump administration. A mandate to do whatever it takes to protect Ontario.”  

In the end, the PCs claimed 80 seats, and the NDP held onto their role as Ontario’s Official Opposition with 27 seats, while the Liberals regained official party status, picking up 14 seats. The Ontario Greens retained their two seats in the Legislature. 

The Ontario Liberals successfully flipped four seats, gaining ground in Nepean and Ajax, and winning in the historically Liberal riding of Toronto—St. Paul’s, which the NDP have held since 2018.  

Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie lost in her own riding of Mississauga East-Cooksville but promised to stay on as leader in her concession speech.  

Voter turnout surpassed the last election, with 45 percent of Ontarians casting ballots.  

New Government Mandate 

Cruising to victory with a rare 3rd consecutive majority, Ford has secured another four-year term. With a strong mandate from the people of Ontario, Ford will view these results as an explicit endorsement of his platform, which he laid out the details of earlier this week. Look for Ford to prioritize the following initiatives throughout the early stages of the new parliamentary session: 

  • Protecting Ontario from tariffs: Ford earmarked nearly $20 billion to combat the likely impact of these penalties on Ontario businesses. 
  • Removing interprovincial trade barriers: The PCs promised $50 million to a new Ontario Trade Together Fund supporting Ontario businesses’ ability to expand into other provinces. 
  • Supporting our security: They committed to prioritizing investments in defence spending and border security, speaking directly to Trump’s criticism of Canada’s contributions to NATO. 
  • Investing in Infrastructure: The Conservatives plan to add an additional $5 billion to the Building Ontario Fund to build more LTC homes, housing units and transportation infrastructure, potentially including Ford’s wildly controversial 401 tunnel. 
  • Hurrying up Hubs: Lastly, expect Ford to prioritize keeping his promise to open the province’s 27 new HART Hubs by April 1, 2025, his $530 million alternative to the Supervised Consumption Sits currently operating in the province. 

If you think all of this sounds like it costs a lot of money, that’s because it does. Ford’s platform calls for $40 billion in new government spending, leaving some to question the Premier’s promise to balance the budget by next fiscal year. Only time will tell if a new spending blitz will be enough to push back on incoming U.S. tariffs and keep Ford’s promise to protect Ontario. 

Official Opposition Platform 

NDP – More of the Same 

While they were hoping for a more decisive result, yesterday could have gone worse for the NDP. Ontario’s Dippers managed to hold on to all of their incumbents in the province’s Northern ridings, which the Conservatives heavily targeted. They also managed to keep most of their urban seats in the province held by an incumbent, only losing Toronto-St. Paul’s to the Liberals.  

Ironically, the NDP seemed to receive the same message as Ford’s victorious PCs from Ontario voters: more of the same, please. As the Official Opposition, the NDP now have a renewed mandate to hold the PCs to account, on cornerstone issues like healthcare, housing and affordability. 

However, one question remains: leadership. While Marit Stiles won her seat handily, she didn’t perform any better than previous NDP bosses, which could be grounds for dismissal if the party is ambitious. However, given the short election period and her party’s Opposition status, expect Stiles to be granted some leniency and stay on as party head until at least the next election. 

Liberals – Bonnie in Two? 

Despite campaigning on winning in one election, Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie moved her own goalposts for the snap election call. She had three things she needed to accomplish: 

  1. Win official party status (12 seats) 
  2. Move into official opposition 
  3. Win her seat 

Unfortunately for her, she only managed to accomplish one of the three, securing official party status, and all the benefits that come with it for her beleaguered party. Outside these goals, she failed to deliver seats in Mississauga and much of the vote-rich 905.  

Will party status be enough to keep the naysayers at bay, giving Crombie a second shot, or will the knives start to turn inward?  

Close Races, Fresh Faces 

While the legislature’s composition remains largely the same, this less-than-eventful election did bring us a few tight races and fresh faces. Here are the new talking heads we’ll be seeing in the next legislative session:  

  • Etobicoke—Lakeshore: Liberal’s Lee Fairclough picks up over PC’s Christine Hogarth.  
  • Hamilton Mountain: Monica Ciriello gains, marking the PC’s first victory in the riding since 1999. The riding was long held by NDP MPP Monique Taylor, who is looking to make her move into federal politics.  
  • Hamilton Centre: Robin Lennox (technically) reclaims the riding for the NDP. It was previously held by Sarah Jama, who sat as an independent after being ousted from the same party. 
  • Algoma—Manitoulin: PC’s Bill Rosenberg beats out independent incumbent Michael Mantha, who formerly sat with the NDP until 2023. The PC’s first victory in the riding since 1987.  
  • Toronto—St. Paul’s: Liberals reclaim historical stronghold. Former CP24 anchor Stephanie Smyth gains over prominent NDP incumbent Dr. Jill Andrew.  
  • Don Valley North: Liberal candidate Jonathan Tsao gains over PC’s Sue Liu. 
  • Ajax: Liberal’s Rob Cerjanec narrowly pulls from PC incumbent Patrice Barnes.  
  • Nepean: Liberal candidate Tyler Watt flips after longtime PC incumbent Lisa MacLeod announced her exit from provincial politics.  

Too close to call 

Politicos will still be watching out for local recounts and potential flips as counting continues. Here are the races where it may be too close to call: 

  • Burlington: PC incumbent Natalie Pierre leads over Liberals by 40 votes.  
  • Mississauga—Erin Mills: PC incumbent Sheref Sabawy leads over Liberals by 20 votes. 
  • York South—Weston: PC candidate Mohamed Firin leads over Liberals by 44 votes. 
  • Mushkegowuk—James Bay: NDP incumbent Guy Bourgouin leads over PCs by 4 votes.   

 

Have any questions about the Ontario election? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.  

Uncertainty: Alberta Braces for Choppy Economic Waters​

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The first two months of 2025 have seen a shift in the global economic context, and governments have been forced to adapt. Last year was about responsibly building the province, this year it’s about confronting new challenges head-on.

Alberta remains one of the fastest-growing provinces in Canada, and that growth continues to put pressure on the services Albertans count on every day. New this year are the ongoing trade conflicts with the U.S., which threaten to put significant downward economic pressure on not just Alberta but the entire global economy.

The fiscal framework introduced in 2023 was meant to keep Alberta’s financial situation in check and the province’s spending within its means. Those guardrails allow for deviation in the event of extraordinary circumstances—and these are extraordinary circumstances.

For the first time in Premier Smith’s tenure, the Government of Alberta is forecasting a $5.2 billion deficit, which will be reduced over the next three years. The deficit results from a doubling of the Government’s fiscal contingency in response to global volatility, as well as a significant increase in government spending while revenue remains stagnant. Almost every department will see an increase in their budget, and spending on new capital projects has increased by more than $1 billion.

Budget 2025 is unchartered waters for a UCP government, but as Minister Horner said in his address, “we are in a difficult time.”

You can find our full analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.

Data breaches are on the rise – and Canadians expect their businesses to be prepared

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In a polarized, digital first, and deeply interconnected economy and society, data breaches are on the rise from both a frequency and cost perspective. PwC’s 2025 Global Digital Trust Insights survey found that the average cost to an organization of a data breach has risen to $3.32 million per incident. Their increasing frequency has not resulted in increasing acceptance.

Canadians are more concerned, more alert, and more judgemental of the enterprises they interact with when it comes to protecting their data. Exclusive research from Navigator reveals that 85% of Canadians are worried about data breaches with 66% reporting increased concern compared to three years ago. For industries handling sensitive information, the concern level is even more acute.

Concern Around Data Breaches Per Industry

Growing concern is stacked on top of an absence of trust, with only 40% of respondents believing that businesses affected by breaches have adequately addressed customer concerns or resolved issues. Is this anxiety fueled by high-profile incidents such as the Canada Revenue Agency and Ticketmaster breaches? Likely in part.

But it’s amplified by some of the driving technological changes of the day – changes that are only intensifying.

  • Widespread adoption of artificial intelligence has struck a nerve, with 70% of Canadians expressing that the technology poses a greater risk compared to just 39% who see it as a valuable tool for preventing breaches.
  • Concern over state-sponsored threats is growing with 71% of Canadians believing that state-sponsored cyber threats will increase over the next five years and 65% expressing concern that Canadian entities are vulnerable to such breaches.
  • The rise of ransomware extortion poses complex legal, ethical, and financial questions. While the Government of Canada does not recommend ransom payments, 77% of Canadians agree that it is important to pay ransom (when applicable) to prevent or limit the spread of customer information.

Forging a Path Forward

Despite these challenges, every business has the opportunity to do right by doing right, showcasing to their customers, employees and stakeholders that they have responded swiftly, with transparency and speed. Specifically:

  • 93% of Canadians emphasized the importance of enhancing security measures, including implementing new systems, conducting staff training, and reviewing policies.
  • 92% believe businesses should offer free credit monitoring and conduct a thorough, transparent investigation.
  • 92% highlighted the importance of notifying clients immediately.

While every scenario brings its own qualities, we remind Canadian organizations to use the following principles in preparation for and response to a breach.

  1. Speed beats perfection, preparation enhances speed: As soon as you are aware of a breach, the clock is ticking on your first notification to affected stakeholders. Timely transparency is critical to maintaining trust. Simple and cost-effective preparatory steps can go a long way in building out your crisis and cyber response capabilities.
  2. Lead from the front: Activate an integrated crisis response team led by a decisive C-suite leader. Streamline communications by appointing a single spokesperson to manage messaging and maintain consistency.
  3. Develop, practice and implement a crisis management framework: It’s not a question of if, but when. Prepare for the inevitable with a tailored, practiced crisis communications plan, cyber incident response plan and business continuity plan that leaves guesswork at the door when a breach occurs. Regular exercising of these plans is critical.
  4. Engage with Key Stakeholders: Communicate proactively with employees, customers, partners, and regulators. Trust is rebuilt when stakeholders are at the heart of decision-making.
  5. Provide tangible support to affected customers: Canadians need to see you work to protect their data. Free credit monitoring, identity theft protection, or the establishment of a dedicated hotline can showcase your commitment to customers and their recovery, reinforcing your organization’s accountability.
  6. Find and communicate remedial steps: Take immediate action to strengthen your defences. Upgrading systems, conducting audits, and training employees sends a clear message: your organization is serious about preventing future breaches.
  7. Leverage external experts: Bring in trusted professionals, like Navigator, PwC, and a legal breach coach to validate your response. Highlighting external expertise reassures stakeholders and demonstrates your commitment to professional recovery.
  8. Monitor and manage public sentiment: Track media and social sentiment to gauge public reactions. Use these insights to refine your messaging, ensuring it is empathetic, nuanced, and aligned with stakeholder expectations.
  9. Share lessons learned: Be transparent about how you addressed the breach and what improvements have been made. Sharing lessons learned demonstrates accountability and positions your organization as a leader in trust recovery.
  10. Conduct a post-crisis response and reputation audit: Evaluate your response, stakeholder sentiment, and reputational risks. Use these insights to refine strategies, rebuild trust, and strengthen your crisis management framework.

Want to learn more?

Looking to gain deeper insights and better understand how to prepare your organization to effectively respond to and recover from a data breach? Connect with one of our experts today. Book a consultation by contacting us at info@navltd.com or ca_incident_response@pwc.com

Methodology

The results presented in this summary report are based on an online survey undertaken by Navigator among a sample of 1,500 adult Canadians from November 29 to December 3, 2024. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population with regards to gender, age, and education, according to Statistics Canada census data. A completely random survey with this sample size (n=1500) would yield a margin of error of +/-2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Download a copy of the research summary below:

Whose FES is it anyway? Canada’s 2024 Fall Economic Statement

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If the government had a story to tell with today’s Fall Economic Statement (“FES”), it went up in flames as Chrystia Freeland delivered a scathing resignation citing disagreements with the Prime Minister over fiscal priorities. ​

What we are left with is a rare “backroom” FES, with no Finance Minister to communicate the government’s vision – or lack thereof – in the face of a $61.9 billion deficit and the threat of a trade war with our largest trading partner.​

Picking up the scraps, we are left with a GST holiday (or a “political gimmick” as Freeland alluded in her resignation), a $17.4 billion corporate tax incentive, and a suite of border and security measures.​

While the loser of today’s events is irrefutably the government itself, there are several wins for corporate Canada: The extension of the Accelerated Investment Incentive, significant investments in AI, and an enhanced SR&ED program are likely to be well received by business. ​

Fiscal hawks, however, are likely to be disappointed as Finance Canada adds $21.8 billion to the deficit – driven by ”significant unexpected expenses related to Indigenous contingent liabilities”. ​

Most importantly, the government has finally presented a response to the existential threat of Trump’s proposed tariffs: with new spending on the CBSA, RCMP, CSE, and Public Safety. All eyes are on Mar-a-lago to see if these commitments will help dissuade the threat of 25% tariffs which would decimate economies on both sides of the border.​

You can find our analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.

Restoring Balance to the Province: Ontario Fall Economic Statement

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Yesterday, Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy released the province’s Fall Economic Statement (FES). While the Liberals and NDP criticized the FES for a lack of new initiatives, Tories say the mini budget reflects their core value of fiscal responsibility without compromising key investments for Ontario workers and families. There’s a lot to digest between moving towards a balanced budget and new investments. Don’t worry, we have got you covered:

Fiscally Responsible Ford Government

The biggest piece of information: government revenues are up $7 billion, and the government projects a balanced budget in 2026-2027.

With revenue on the rise, the Progressive Conservatives reduced the deficit to $6.6 billion, projecting a balanced budget in 2026, with the option to balance in 2025 ahead of an early election. Provincial revenues are as high as ever, according to the government, with an increase of nearly $60 billion since 2018. The main drivers for this? The government says strong support for businesses, a growing economy and no increases in sales tax.

The FES also provides an update on LCBO’s revenues. While the 2024-2025 figures will result in a slight decline, the government is confident revenues will reach $8.5 billion in 2026-2027, $100 million more than projected in the 2024 budget, despite the expansion of alcohol sales to big box retailers and convenience stores across the province.

The Big Winners

The first pillar of the government’s FES is built on re-investing into Ontario’s economy, specifically highlighting the province’s manufacturing and life sciences sectors. The major announcements within the budget include:

  • $94 million as part of Phase 2 of the Life Sciences Strategy;
  • An additional $100 million into the Invest Ontario Fund;
  • Another $40 million to extend the Advanced Manufacturing and Innovation Competitiveness Stream; and
  • Extending and enhancing the Time-Limited tax Relief for the Electricity Distribution Sector until December 31, 2028.

Municipalities get more support

Following the 2024 budget, Ontario’s Big City Mayors commended the government for “listening to municipalities” and addressing infrastructure deficits across the province.

The Ontario government is doubling down on supporting municipalities, with an emphasis on smaller communities.

  • $100 million over the next two years to increase the Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund. This is the primary transfer payment from the province to municipalities, giving smaller townships with less income, more funds to operate;
  • $1 billion for the new Municipal Infrastructure Program to support projects enabling housing starts in growing communities; and
  • Enhancing the Housing-Enabling Water Systems Fund to $825 million.

The province is also prioritizing supporting Ontario taxpayers with direct reimbursements, including tax rebates and cuts, simplifying payment methods for transit, and tying supports to inflation. More specifically, the province is:

  • Proposing to provide a $200 taxpayer rebate, for all eligible adult Ontario tax filers, plus an additional $200 for each eligible child under 18 whose families qualify for a Canada Child Benefit payment for 2024;
  • Proposing to extend the current temporary gas tax and fuel tax rate cuts keeping the rates at nine cents per liter until June 30, 2025;
  • Launching One Fare so transit riders only pay once for transfers between transit systems in the Greater Toronto Area; and
  • Expanding the Ontario Guaranteed Annual Income System (GAINS) program and indexing the GAINS benefit to inflation.

Primary care takes primary role

Finally, the province is redoubling its efforts to invest in healthcare, focusing on primary care training, fertility care accessibility and supporting seniors. Specific strategies include:

  • Extending Ontario’s Learn and Stay program by providing an additional $17.7 million for 2026-27;
  • Expanding the Ontario Fertility Program by $150 million and committing to introduce a new fertility tax credit in 2025;
  • Prioritizing access for Ontario residents for medical school seats; and
  • Investing $17 million over the next 3 years to support 100 new Seniors Active Living Centres.

Why it matters

  • This FES represents the return to a fiscal norm that Tories have been craving, especially after payouts surrounding Bill 124 had inflated Ford’s deficit to higher levels than promised.
  • The contents of the FES, especially the $200 taxpayer rebate, are all important incentives for the PC’s to offer voters as they gear up for a potential early election in the spring of next year.

Opposition says FES focused on wrong issues

Liberals

According to Ontario Liberals, Doug Ford is “failing to do his job and address the issues that really matter to Ontario families.” The Liberals did not hold back when commenting on this year’s FES, criticizing the government on two main topics, health care and prioritizing Ontario’s wealthiest.

Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie focused on Ford’s desire to put “his rich friends first”:

  • “Doug Ford is more focused on billion-dollar giveaways to wealthy insiders than he is on fixing health care. People are dying on waitlists, and Doug Ford is spending billions on booze, foreign spas and the Greenbelt scandal.”

This response is consistent with their month-long criticism of Ford’s handling of Ontario’s health care system.

NDP

Similar to the Liberals, the NDP framed Ford’s fiscally focused FES as out-of-touch with the lived realities of everyday Ontarians.

In a statement, Leader of the Opposition Marit Stiles claimed Ontarians “aren’t getting what they paid for,” arguing it is filled with “stale ideas and empty promises.” Specifically, the NDP pointed out the reduced amount of housing starts, delay of transit projects, and lack of supports to address the cost of living as major oversights.