The Saskatchewan Party (Sask Party) made history on October 28, 2024, becoming Canada’s longest-serving provincial government by winning a record fifth term. While voters ultimately demonstrated continued trust in Moe’s leadership, seeking solutions for health-care capacity, improvements to the education system, and relief from affordability challenges, the NDP made significant gains, nearly doubling their seat count from 14 in the 2020 election.
Backed by Rural Strongholds: Sask Party Wins Record Fifth Term
As of Tuesday morning, the Sask Party won 32 of 61 seats in the Legislature (with leads in three more), down from the 48 seats they won in 2020. Upstart right-wing parties like the Saskatchewan United Party (SUP) didn’t dent rural support enough to cause a problem for Moe’s Sask Party but the party did sustain significant losses in urban areas, particularly in Regina where it appears they failed to win a single seat, as of the time of writing. This urban divide was also evident in the popular vote: the Sask Party captured 65 per cent in rural regions but only about 40 per cent in both Regina and Saskatoon, trailing the NDP’s 55 per cent and 57 per cent, respectively.
Moe seemed to acknowledge this issue Monday, adopting a cooperative tone in his victory speech. He referenced potential perceptions of a divided province but emphasized that, regardless of how they voted, Saskatchewanians cast their ballots with the province’s best interests in mind. We expect the NDP to highlight this looming division given there will be very few urban voices in cabinet, in a province where most of the population lives in cities. Moving forward, we’ll be watching how the Sask Party navigates urban voters and their priorities.
The preliminary seat count stands at:
- Saskatchewan Party: 32 (leading in 3)
- NDP: 22 (leading in 4)
Key Battlegrounds That Carried the Day
As late as Saturday, October 26, polling showed both parties in a near deadlock. Despite significant changes to Saskatchewan’s electoral map, the NDP proved unsuccessful in breaking the rural wall. Urban voters were a different story. The results in key ridings led to the loss of five Sask Party ministers’ seats:
- Justice Minister and Attorney General Bronwyn Eyre lost her seat in Saskatoon Stonebridge, where the NDP’s Darcy Warrington won with 53.8 per cent of the vote.
- Parks, Culture and Sport Minister Laura Ross lost her seat in Regina Roachdale. A Sask Party MLA since 2007, Ross was defeated by the NDP’s Joan Pratchler, who won with 52.6 per cent of the vote.
- In a close race, Environment Minister Christine Tell may lose her seat in Regina Wascana Plains to the NDP’s Brent Blakely by just 4 per cent. The result may have been influenced by SUP candidate Dustin Plett, who currently holds 4.5 per cent of the vote.
- Social Services Minister Gene Makowsky lost his Regina University seat to the NDP’s Sally Housser, who won with 51 per cent of the vote.
- Minister of Corrections, Policing and Public Safety Paul Merriman may lose his seat in Saskatoon Silverspring-Sutherland to the NDP’s Hugh Gordon in a tight race, currently trailing by 3.3 per cent.
A Change Election? Yes and No
In an innovative approach to the 2024 provincial election, Elections Saskatchewan introduced “voting week” for the first time, with polls open the week prior to election day. As a result, and in keeping with trends in other provinces, Saskatchewan Elections reported that 273,010 people cast early ballots, with nearly 35,000 more votes cast during the first 48 hours of advanced polling than in the 2020 provincial election.
Elections Saskatchewan reported early Tuesday morning that just under 53 per cent of those eligible to cast a ballot did so, showing no uptick from 2020 and a decrease in voter turnout from 2016. According to Navigator’s research, advance turn-out is increasingly a function of convenience for voters, rather than a strong desire to seek change. Parties, particularly the Sask Party, would do well to acknowledge that voters in at least Regina and Saskatoon were looking for change and the party will have a strong opposition to contend with in the next four years.
A Fearsome Opposition Forms
Nearly doubling their previous seat count of 14 by winning over 10 new seats in the Legislature, the Saskatchewan NDP will gain a significantly larger caucus budget. This boost could pose challenges for the Sask Party, as the NDP will now be able to hire more staff and allocate more resources toward research. If they strategically leverage these advantages, they could mount a robust opposition over the next four years, establishing themselves as a formidable opponent in the next provincial election.
Cabinet Potential
Scott Moe is expected to announce a new cabinet in mid-November. Four high profile cabinet ministers announced their retirements before the election, and five additional ministers are projected to lose their seats, meaning that while many familiar faces are likely to remain and be in line for a promotion to the coveted job at Finance in particular, the appointment of newcomers to the cabinet table will be necessary.
Incumbent MLAs to watch as Moe decides his next cabinet include:
- Warren Keading (Melville-Saltcoats)
- Colleen Young (Lloydminster)
- Terry Jenson (Warman)
- Travis Keisig (Last Mountain-Touchwood)
- Alana Ross (Prince Albert Northcote)
As the government ramps back up, we can expect a short legislative session kicked off by a throne speech ahead of the holidays.
Have any questions about the Saskatchewan Election? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.
