Category: Chairman’s Desk

Kathleen Wynne and Doug Ford believe in their bones that their view for Ontario’s future is the right one. Neither can understand the perspective of the other.

And so it starts. Even before the “official” beginning of the provincial election campaign, the deluge of polls has begun.

And the news isn’t good for the governing Liberals. The CBC‘s Eric Grenier, who compiles an aggregation of publicly available polls and has historically been quite accurate in his predictions, says that if an election were held today, it is more likely than not that the PCs would form a majority government.

But the election is not going to be held today. It is, of course going to be held on June 7, after what I predict will be one of the most ruthless and cutthroat campaigns Ontario has ever seen.

Over the last three weeks in this space, I have outlined the strategic options available to each of the three major parties. It is now time to see how they lift those choices off the pages of their plans and into the glare of a campaign.

Here’s what to watch for: how does the desire for change play out?

We know that, when asked, about 8 in 10 Ontarians say it is time for a change. What we don’t know yet is exactly what they mean by that and therein lies the rub.

If they mean that after 15 years they have just had enough of the Liberals, then that’s a challenge for the premier. It’s a challenge because it means that the voters are done and, in the process of deciding they want change, they have stopped listening to what the government has on offer. In fact, they no longer care, they simply want something else. Think Mike Harris after Bob Rae. Justin Trudeau after Stephen Harper. Rob Ford after David Miller.

At these times, voters think things have gotten turned upside down; that the tail is wagging the dog, and that massive, even if disruptive, change is needed.

These are very difficult campaigns for incumbent governments because not only are voters not listening to the new ideas and policies the government is campaigning on, they dismiss messaging that suggests that the opposition leader is not ready to lead, too risky and too inexperienced as fear-mongering and the tactics of the desperate.

On the other hand, if voters want a change in the way government sets its priorities and delivers services to them, then change can mean a change in policies and programs and not a change in parties. In this case, think Alison Redford after Ed Stelmach. Redford skilfully moved her party to the left, embraced a new and changed Alberta and came back from a 22-point deficit to form a majority government.

And so the stage has been set. With Andrea Horwath inexplicably still on the sidelines, the Liberals and PCs are set for an epic grudge match.

Kathleen Wynne and Doug Ford believe in their bones that their view for Ontario’s future is the right one.

Neither can understand the perspective of the other.

That, and both the stakes and the campaign teams, means that we will see a sharpness of messaging unlike what we have seen before. The simple truth is each side will need to be willing to skate into the corners and play elbows up hockey in order to have a chance to win.

How it all plays out will be anybody’s guess but that’s what will make this campaign so fascinating.

In the end, I’m betting it will come down to whether people are feeling precarious or left behind. If they are feeling left behind, that government is not working for them, that special interests have got the upper hand and that the elites are winning at their expense, then that’s advantage Ford.

If, on the other hand, they are feeling precarious, that daily life is getting harder, that enhanced entitlement programs make a difference for them, then that is advantage Wynne.

One last observation as you watch the polls. I’d bet that the Liberals support will be reported as under-represented. I have a hunch more people like some of the new programs announced in last week’s budget than will admit to pollsters.

But, again, that’s just a hunch.

Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist.

Navigator’s Executive Chairman Jaime Watt joins The Mike Farwell Show on 570 News to discuss Kathleen Wynne’s play for the provincial election.

 

Jaime Watt, who has orchestrated communication strategies behind elections across Canada, is writing a three-part series advising each of the main provincial party leaders on their best path to winning a majority government on June 7. This is Part 3.

This week, Ontario’s Liberals tabled their re-election road map (a.k.a. their budget) in the provincial legislature.

Expansive. Ambitious. Aspirational. Generous. Promises of billions in new spending on a broad sweep of priorities that the Liberals see as essential to maintaining and expanding a fair, inclusive and just society, which might also be essential to their re-election chances.

From free child care for pre-JK kids to dental coverage for Ontarians who don’t have coverage, the budget contained a little bit (or, OK, a lot) of something for everyone.

Pundits reacted how one might expect: by the government’s opponents, who can all but taste victory on June 7, it was decried as a spend-happy and irresponsible budget, a “suicide note” from a tired government in its final days.

Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford decried the budget as a “spending spree” funded by taking money out of the pockets of taxpayers.

Andrea Horwath, who has advanced many of these ideas for years, dismissed it as a last-minute, last-ditch attempt at re-election.

But the document was actually a clever one. Wynne’s Liberals had little strategic choice but to veer sharply left.

They are a government that has run out of room on the right side of the political spectrum. While in Ontario Liberals are often elected with support from moderately conservative voters, in the premier’s case that ship has sailed.

The Ontario Liberals steady leftward march of the last 15 years – commitments to green energy projects, raising the minimum wage and significant overall general spending increases, not to mention the accumulated baggage of being a long-serving government – have closed the door to many of those voters.

That’s why the party must now focus on minimizing the New Democratic vote and turning the election into a black-and-white battle with Ontario’s Conservatives.

Luckily for Wynne, this is authentic and comfortable territory for her. Long before she was elected as a provincial politician, Wynne was a passionate activist on a number of these files, and was well-established on the progressive wing of her party.

And so, the budget represented a declaration that the Ontario Liberals plan to extend this leftward shift, should they be re-elected.

It won’t be an easy task. Polls have repeatedly shown that Wynne has a troublingly low approval rating – far lower than that of Stephen Harper at a similar time, for instance. The party has comparably low polling numbers.

Going into the election, she has a team that has proven effective and capable at her side, which has lost none of its enthusiasm and belief. She has presented a budget her party will be keen to run on.

Given their cards, the Liberals have optimally positioned themselves. Ford is always going to be the advocate for cutting government waste, and so a budget that highlights all of the good things Liberals believe the government can do for Ontarians creates a perfect foil.

It allows Wynne to be the force that believes in the opportunity for government to do good against a guy who just wants to cut.

And it renders Horwath little more than an afterthought.

It is, perhaps, the premier’s only shot: a left-wing coalition that supports a left-wing approach to policies. Seats in urban and Northern Ontario are the bulwark of that coalition.

That said, the Liberals will need some breaks.

To climb out of their current doldrums and to get the attention – and crucially, the consideration of the electorate – Doug Ford will have to stumble and prove he is not yet ready for prime time. Andrea Horwath will have to, once again, fail to connect with voters in a meaningful way.

The election will be decided in two months after a pitched battle over where Ontario’s values truly lie. The Liberals have staked out their position firmly, crisply and clearly.

Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist.

Navigator’s Executive Chairman Jaime Watt joins The Insiders on CBC Radio to weigh in on populist movements and how Canada is different.

 

Jaime Watt, who has orchestrated communication strategies behind elections across Canada, is writing a three-part series advising each of the main provincial party leaders on their best path to winning a majority government on June 7. This is Part 2.

Heading into her third election as leader, Andrea Horwath can’t seem to catch a break. After winning her party’s leadership in 2009, she led the NDP from the doldrums where it had lived since its crushing defeat in 1995.

Her steady and reasonable management approach, combined with her charisma and down-to-Earth, approachable style can be credited with much of that.

But that hasn’t been enough.

And, now, should she not at least be able to form the opposition, this election will likely be her last.

Politics is rarely fair and, to make matters worse, a series of unfortunate events have befallen the New Democrats. For a while, Horwath looked quite competitive. The Liberals were trailing in the polls and she was one of two fresh faces and arguably the more experienced one.

But Patrick Brown’s downfall has roiled the Ontario political scene. The eventful race to succeed Brown as leader of the PCs managed to capture nearly every inch of column length and minute of TV time.

To add insult to injury, Horwath’s chief of staff was the subject of allegations that he had mishandled sexual-harassment complaints in an unrelated former job. While that has since been cleared up, it created unhelpful upheaval at a time when Horwath was preparing for the election of a lifetime.

In spite of these challenges, she was uniquely positioned to be the people’s champion – the one who was most authentically positioned to fight an out-of-touch Wynne government.

Doug Ford‘s election as PC leader changed all that. Ford connects with much of Horwath’s audience in a way few can claim to do. And the polls have already begun to show the result.

This leaves Horwath little option but to advance a left-leaning approach to populism. The problem is, Premier Kathleen Wynne has been using the power of incumbency to move in on that territory. The premier’s policy announcements have been aimed squarely at winning those voters from the NDP.

Horwath can’t allow herself to be squeezed out of broader debate by the PCs and Liberals. Although positioned at different points on the political spectrum, both share the strategic advantage that comes from such a narrative.

Horwath’s coalition, itself, also presents complications: The New Democrats have always had a hard-to-reconcile coalition of urban intelligentsia, blue-collar sensibility and rural co-operation. It allowed them to win ridings such as Parkdale-High Park, Hamilton Centre and Essex at the same time.

In 2011, Horwath successfully held her own. In the 2014 election, she made gains in Southwestern Ontario but the urban core of her party fell apart: leaving only one seat in each of Toronto and Ottawa.

This time out, the party must focus on protecting its turf in rural and blue-collar Ontario, while increasing its share of seats in downtown cores. Ontarians want to hear common-sense talk from Horwath that speaks to how she will make their lives more affordable.

She has a great opportunity to run a campaign based on who she is and the experiences she has lived. A sandwich generation, career woman from a mid-size market. A single mom.

She is the perfect pitch person for an approach to government that’s not based on ideology or dogma but rather on making people’s everyday lives better.

Horwath’s decision on Monday to hold an announcement of a large policy item – a $1.2-billion public dental plan – to counteract the effects of the government’s throne speech and the PC’s unity rally was an example of how both to keep the focus on themselves and thread the needle of her coalition.

The New Democrats refused to cede the stage, and they were rewarded with considerable media coverage.

The next 80 days will be more of the same. Balancing coalitions while seizing attention. A high-wire act, for sure, but if one leader has demonstrated the ability to do it, it’s Andrea Horwath.

Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist.