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Tory divide a painful lesson not learned by all

Ask any Canadian conservative about federal politics during the mid-’90s, and you will be met with a grimace. Just when right-of-centre provincial parties were making substantial headway across the country, the Reform, Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties were insisting on a futile battle for voter support that saw them languish in second, third or even fourth place.

Forming government became a distant dream as Jean Chrétien’s Liberals piled up victory after victory. The Liberals, powered by a divided conservative vote, won dozens of seats. They were able to dominate the federal landscape with the slimmest of pluralities.

The frustration of the divide eventually convinced partisans of its futility and intra-family reconciliation became sensible. Stephen Harper and Peter Mackay led a coalition of the willing into a united party that has proven successful: since the re-unification of the Progressive Conservatives and Canadian Alliance, the Liberals have won only one majority government in five elections, and one slim minority.

It was a difficult and sometimes painful lesson. But now it seems it wasn’t a lesson learned by all.

Maxime Bernier has long been a unique character in the Conservative Party of Canada.

One of the Conservative party’s first Quebec members of Parliament, Bernier is a dedicated libertarian who has not always followed party orthodoxy and who ran afoul of Prime Minister Harper more than once.

Bernier, who lost the leadership of the federal Conservative party to Scheer by the slimmest of margins, has spent the last year chafing at the constraints of party discipline. As the year has dragged on, he has grown bolder and bolder with his comments, criticizing the direction of the party more loudly and publicly with each passing week.

Finally, the inevitable happened: Bernier announced that he could no longer sit as a member of the caucus, and that he would be forming his own party, the People’s Party.

Although Bernier’s party reflects his ideological leanings, his intention was clearly to poach from the Conservative base. Out of the gate, Bernier has criticized Andrew Scheer directly on a range of issues.

From Scheer’s commitment to maintaining the unfair dairy supply management system to his comparatively light-handed criticism of Canada’s refugee crisis, Bernier tacked right and did everything he could to position Scheer as a mushy moderate.

Such positioning may have worked in the 1990s with partisans, but the reaction to Bernier’s split among Conservatives was anything but warm. Joined by not a single member of caucus or high-profile Conservative party member, Bernier was left trumpeting that he was the voice for “the people.”

Let me not discount Mr. Bernier here: he is not wrong that there is a significant chunk of Canadian citizens who are frustrated with many of the issues he is championing. There remains a deep well of frustration on the same hot-button issues that got Mr. Trump elected.

What I would caution is that conservatives, both partisans and every-day voters with right-wing values, remember with great frustration the decade spent in the wilderness under a split conservative vote.

When the Reform party undercut the incumbent Progressive Conservative Party so effectively, it was because to a large extent it was able to exploit a significant feeling of alienation among western Canadians with the clarion call “the West wants in.”

The same mood does not exist today. What’s more, the Conservative Party’s most recent decade in power left many partisans satisfied with its advances. And its new leader is a conservative that is deeply familiar with the party membership’s values.

It’s not 1993. Mr. Bernier’s party is not going to take off merely by undercutting the Conservatives. Indeed, if his party is to find any success, it will rely upon scooping up votes of dissatisfied Liberals and Bloquistes in addition to disaffected Conservatives.

More likely than anything? Mr. Bernier’s party will fizzle, much as his parliamentary career did.

He has taken the first step, but that may well have been the easiest one.

Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist.

Ford’s Fast-Paced Summer Agenda Proving Critics Wrong

When political parties, who have spent years wandering aimlessly in the wilderness of opposition, eventually come to power, they are often counselled by their new advisers to pause and take a moment to catch their breath.

This advice is offered not just with the best of intentions but for good reason as well: campaigns are stressful affairs that drain resources and exhaust staff. And then the transition of power – a cumbersome and inelegant process – starts. Choosing a cabinet. Hiring staff. Reconciling the promises of a platform with the realities of government – all while trying to find the bathroom – takes time, effort and attention to detail.

The reality is that getting a government fully up and running takes months. That’s why it isn’t difficult to understand when newly elected parties opt for the easier and safer route of taking their time to establish their footing before surging onwards.

As they have already done with so many conventional approaches, Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives have opted not to follow that familiar path.

Shortly after their election, the government announced it would bring the legislature back this summer to tackle its immediate priorities. The move was greeted with mixed reviews, to say the least.

Proponents argued that a short session would act as a proof point of directional and philosophical change from the previous government.

Critics, on the other hand, argued the platform on which the PCs were elected was light on detail and provided little guidance in the form of a legislative road map. They cautioned that the opposition knew their way around the house better than a neophyte government would, that traps would abound – that it would be a government that was ungrounded and would be error-filled.

A general consensus seemed to emerge: after the whirlwind leadership change and a frantic election, a Ford government would be far too rickety to provide many meaningful changes during a summer session.

But there turned out to be a problem with that analysis: its foundation.

Ford has carried his campaign for premier, which was driven, focused and on-message, into his government – a government with action as its hallmark.

To the astonishment of many seasoned observers, the new government, which had been told over and over in the lead-up to election day that many of its policies were unrealistic or downright unachievable, proved conventional wisdom wrong.

Firing the Hydro One CEO and board without a massive severance. Reducing the price of beer to a buck. Closing green energy plans without a lawsuit.

All not only accomplished but accomplished with uncommon speed – after all, just weeks have passed since the election.

Instead of the clumsy, disorganized government that common wisdom said it would be, it has demonstrated itself to be a deft and capable one that is far more at home with the machinery of government that might have first been obvious.

Much of this is due to the abilities of the people the new premier has recruited to join his administration. Without a government at Queen’s Park for 15 years, and with a federal government held by the Trudeau Liberals, many experienced conservatives were available to move to a new home.

That is particularly reflected in the premier’s own office.

Dean French, his chief of staff and closest confidant, is familiar with the wheels of power and understands well how to adjust them to ensure a Fordian view of government is delivered.

Jenni Byrne, his principal secretary familiar to many, is a flawless executor of policy initiatives, with an intuitive sense of the values of Ford coalition voters.

But, in the end much of it comes down to the boss himself, a leader who is demonstrating himself to be a disciplined and capable premier.

It has been three months, and this is a government proving itself to be one to be reckoned with – one that is smart, with its finger not just on the pulse of the electorate but also on the levers of power.

Stakeholders beware – this government is one that will go down in the books, and not for its inadequacies.

Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist.

On Pride And Politics

Don’t let anyone ever tell you that this month’s Pride celebration doesn’t still matter.

For the young lesbian woman living in Northern Ontario who travels to Toronto for the first time and finds a community of over a million supporters.

For the closeted refugee who sneaks off to Pride because his family does not accept him for who he is, but who discovers that he is not alone.

For the nervous mother whose son has just come out to her, who worries about him finding his place in the world, and who sees in Pride an expansive and welcoming community.

Without question, Pride matters for the individual looking to accept themselves for who they are.

But it also matters at a much larger level, and that’s what is too often forgotten.

For activists, it’s a place to protest lingering inequalities and systemic injustices, both domestic and international. A place to come together in solidarity, to highlight the work that still needs to be done without forgetting to celebrate progress already made.

In a recent speech to the LGBTQ advocacy organization EGALE, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke movingly about the day he issued a formal apology for the government’s historical mistreatment of LGBTQ people. He described how he brought his three children with him to Parliament that day, to watch as he delivered his historic speech from the floor of the House of Commons.

And at a time when trans youth attempt suicide six times more often than the average Ontarian, a vibrant display of love and support like Pride sends a powerful message.

Pride, and all that it represents, is good for our community and that means it is also good for business.

That’s why, in part, after looking all over the world, Google CEO Eric Schmidt chose Toronto as the site for his experimental smart city” project. “In Toronto, we found a city with unequalled diversity and a remarkable spirit of openness – a beacon of social tolerance,” he explains. “Its recent economic success hasn’t come at the expense of these values, but rather because of them.”

That is exactly the case that Trudeau made to Jeff Bezos when the two met in February. As Bezos decides where Amazon will locate its second headquarters, which will create 50,000 high-paying jobs, we know that the diversity and inclusion that is Toronto and the vibrancy and choice that come with those attributes are critically important. Toronto is, after all, proudly the most diverse city in the world.

When I came out in the 1980s, no political leader would dare be seen anywhere near Pride. In 2017, the prime minister, the premier and the mayor linked arms and marched down Church St. The progress made in a few short decades has been nothing short of remarkable.

So remarkable, in fact, that sometimes it can be easy to forget that Pride is rooted in protest.

And there is self-evidently more to fight for: transgender rights, better HIV/AIDS care for the marginalized, the ban on blood donation by men who have sex with men. I could go on.

This year has been particularly difficult for LGBTQ community. We have been haunted by a serial killer and perhaps by police indifference; an inquiry will seek to sort that out. At the tail end of the parade this year will be silent marchers wearing black, in memory of the pain and trauma endured over the last 12 months.

And, of course, for many of an older generation, that pain and trauma has not only been confined to the last 12 months. Just as quickly as we can move forwards, we can also move backwards. The fight for recognition, the fight for equality, the fight to move from tolerance to acceptance to embrace – it is a fight that will never sleep. Just as rights are granted, they can be just as quickly revoked.

Look no further than south of our border.

At a time when trust in institutions is declining and tribalism is on the rise, a strong sense of cultural identity and cohesion matters more than ever. Some may think participating in Pride is an empty gesture or photo-op. But that’s just not true. It truly is an act of solidarity, love and patriotism.

Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist.

Why Voters Were Attracted To Doug Ford

The fact Doug Ford won a majority government is now old news, so let’s turn to why he won.

In the days after the polls closed, my firm, Navigator, undertook a research study to determine why voters made the choices they did. The research was based on a simple premise: If we could figure why voters made the choices they did, we could be well on our way to predicting how the new government will act.

The top-line results: Ford won because voters were in a self-interested mood.

It will come as little surprise that one of the common denominators across the province was acute voter fatigue with the Liberal party. Some of it was the natural fallout of 15 years in office.

However, much of it came from the perceived sense of Liberal overreach and the party’s stubborn disregard of voters’ interests.

So, with a government that was not only long in the tooth but that was viewed as out of touch with the priorities of everyday voters, the election became a stark choice between the New Democrats and the Progressive Conservatives.

While Andrea Horwath and the NDP displayed more discipline than ever, they simply were not a viable option for many voters.

Some voters remained uncomfortable with the New Democrats and the cost of their social policies. Their leader’s insistence on never using back-to-work legislation reminded many of a rigid, doctrinaire approach to governing.

In fact, many referred to the party as “radical,” a direct echo of the messages the Liberals and Conservatives drove in their advertising.

It turns out this election was not about who had the best vision for the province, nor was it about which leader was the most premier-like. This election was not about the macro; it was all about the micro.

Voters wanted immediate relief, not grandiose promises for the future. They wanted policy that would positively impact them now.

Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives understood that.

Voters pointed to four policies that allowed the PCs to claim they were on the side of regular voters.

First, an immediate 10-cents-per-litre reduction in the cost of gas. Of all the policies Ford put on offer, nothing said “I get it” like this one. That’s why it was a shrewd decision for the PC party to announce on Wednesday that premier-designate Ford would recall the legislature for a brief summer session specifically to deal with gas prices.

Second, relief from the ballooning price of hydro power. Unsurprisingly, voters expressed dissatisfaction with the way the current system works, and indicated they were deeply skeptical about its fairness. Voters expect action on the hydro front, but they aren’t expecting miracles. They want a clean sweep of utility board members and executives as long as the cost to do so is not exorbitant.

Third, a solution to the ever-increasing tax burden. Reducing the tax burden for middle-class Ontarians emerged as core to the new government’s mandate. Voters expect the level of taxation to decline, and to decline swiftly.

Finally, scrutiny of government waste and the deficit. There was widespread support for Ford’s promise of a full external, line-by-line audit of the government, with the belief it will uncover considerable waste.

Businesses and organizations can glean many lessons from this research.

For those seeking to work closely with the new government, it is important to understand that it will be relentlessly focused on helping people who are struggling.

Organizations should now frame their case in a manner that demonstrates how it will help everyday Ontarians. They should understand that this is a government that will be extremely sensitive about undertaking any projects that harm the pocketbook or affect voters’ perceptions that the PCs are there for the “little guy.”

Put another way, much of the way organizations have been dealing with government for the past 15 years must be thrown out the window. In other words, the past is not prologue.

That’s because, at its core, the government will be going back to basics: providing tax relief for Ontarians, focusing on reducing the debt, and sticking to its knitting.

Voters want and – crucially – expect the PCs to govern for the people.

Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist.