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What arrows do the Opposition parties have in their quivers?

MPs are back in Ottawa Monday for the final push before the fall election. What should the government be looking to achieve? What arrows do the Opposition parties have in their quivers? Politicos Jaime Watt and David Herle, who have advised government and opposition, share their strategies in this special episode.

This interview was originally broadcast on CBC’s The House on CBC, January 27, 2019.

Rebuilding a middle ground is the only way to fix a broken America

This article originally appeared in the Toronto Star on January 27, 2019.

So long shining city upon the hill.

There are, of course, those who scoff that the idealistic notion of American exceptionalism never existed at all.

Others might reasonably suggest that, in fact, it vanished years ago — not in one fell swoop, but incrementally with each passing hour of cable news, gerrymandered district, and bruising nomination battle.

Never mind the when and how. There will be plenty of opportunity for the pundit class to deconstruct what went wrong and divvy up the blame.

But exhibit one in the case for its disappearance is the U.S. government shutdown, which, after five long weeks, has found temporary resolution — the stopgap funding arrangement agreed to by lawmakers and President Trump will reopen government until Feb. 15.

This temporary reprieve, notwithstanding, there can no longer be any doubt that there is not only something unmistakably rotten in Washington but structurally so.

It has now become clear that we are watching the death knell of American bipartisanship.

So, what? Politics is, after all, a team sport which is, for many, a zero-sum game. Winners and losers and all.

But, public servants — those who dedicate their working lives to the betterment of civil society — should not be reduced to bargaining chips or cannon fodder in a battle that is not theirs.

The president painted himself into a corner. The Democrats know it. And, as is reflected in recent waves of public opinion polling, so too do increasing numbers of everyday Americans.

This isn’t an arcane policy disagreement over appropriations. No, it’s as real as it is tangible.

There are some 800,000 federal government workers who were furloughed or forced to work without pay. And that has come with consequences.

The Food and Drug Administration was forced to suspend all non-essential work, including food safety inspections.

The FBI Agents Association acknowledged, “the resources available to support [federal law enforcement activities had been] stretched to the breaking point and are dwindling day by day.”

The Securities and Exchange Commission told companies planning public offerings, this month, to delay their plans.

This is not what conservatives have in mind when they preach about smaller government.

Whatever your political leaning, it’s worth recognizing many of our neighbour’s greatest legislative accomplishments have actually been bipartisan achievements, from LBJ’s 1964 Civil Rights Act, to the Apollo mission, to the Tax Reform Act under Reagan or the Americans with Disabilities Act under George H.W. Bush.

And there is data to back this idea up. Political scientists have studied polarization by measuring all 2.8 million Senate votes and 11.5 million House votes between 1789 and 2004.

Their study has found that bipartisanship began to rise in the early 20th century, as Republicans became more moderate, and persisted even as Republicans swung back to the right in the 1980s.

That’s a notion that is, today, hard to imagine. Distant memory is the sight of anyone reaching across the aisle to the other side.

While it was Trump’s insistence on funding for a border wall, a project that could not even win approval when Republicans controlled all three branches of government, that caused an unprecedented impasse, this issue is merely a symptom of a much more pervasive disease.

In his farewell address to the American people, Ronald Reagan reflected, “I’ve spoken of the Shining City all my political life. … in my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That’s how I saw it and see it still.”

Principled conservatives within the Republican party would be wise to heed his words.

President Trump may have “owned” the shutdown, but those in the corridors of power have a responsibility to ensure government remains open.

Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist. He is a freelance contributor for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @jaimewatt

Canada has limited foreign policy options

This article originally appeared in the Toronto Star on January 20, 2019.

When the Liberal government came to power, it did away with the approach to foreign policy practiced by its Conservative predecessors and replaced it with something a bit more “idealistic.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau embarked on an international media tour during which he repeatedly declared himself a feminist. The foreign service, all the way up to Minister Chrystia Freeland, began to loudly champion environmental and human rights causes in other countries.

For a time, this appeared to be working nicely. International media ate it up. Canadians seemed proud that their self-image as a kind and gentle country was reflected in the words and public positions of the country’s diplomats.

Inevitably, there were awkward moments along the way, specifically the costume drama debacle in India. Tensions with Saudi Arabia also surfaced last year when Freeland Twitter-cized the kingdom over its human rights record. It was a shot across the bow at Riyadh that prompted weeks of recriminations.

But recent weeks have brought more serious tests of the Trudeau government’s approach to foreign policy.

First, there is escalating tension between Canada and China over our detention of Huawei executive, Meng Wanzhou. It is hardly a fair fight — China is a fully emerged superpower whose real issue is with the United States, not Canada. Unhelpfully, our country, with its inherent resolve to uphold the rule of law, is caught between the two.

Not only that but Huawei’s problems elsewhere in the world are making the problem even more challenging. For example, Poland has arrested a Huawei sales director for spying on behalf of the Chinese government, while other countries have formally put the mobile phone maker on notice that the company will be precluded from participating in their 5G networks.

And now, the stakes have become even higher with lives now on the line. This week, a Canadian, Robert Schellenberg, was hastily sentenced to death by a Chinese court, and other citizens, caught in the Huawei crossfire, appear to have been unjustly detained.

If that’s not enough, the acrimony between Canada and Saudi Arabia has further escalated. Last week, Freeland challenged that country again by personally welcoming teenage refugee Rahaf Mohammed, who had been on the brink of deportation back to her homeland before Canada proactively intervened.

In both instances, we saw the typical diplomatic tit-for-tat play out: statements were issued, fingers were wagged, ambassadors were recalled, and so forth. In an election year, when a government is inclined, for domestic political purposes, to flex its foreign policy muscles, when push comes to shove, the government’s range of options on the international stage are quite limited.

The truth is, the Liberals can do little more than huff and, on a good day, puff that China is acting “arbitrarily,” as the Trudeau government did when it issued a travel warning. Or say, “Canada is a country that understands how important it is to stand up for human rights, to stand up for women’s rights around the world,” as the prime minister did when explaining the government’s rationale for taking in Mohammed.

But beyond these statements and the usual diplomatic quid pro quo, the Trudeau government has yet to take meaningful retaliatory action. China sentences our citizens to death; Saudi Arabia withdraws critical investments and repatriates its many foreign students. Meanwhile, Canada does little more than make speeches about our values.

What would decisive action look like?

For starters, Canada could join the ranks of its Five Eyes peers in putting restrictions on how Huawei participates in country’s telecommunications infrastructure. It could terminate the contract to sell light armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia for use in a war that has been internationally denounced in Yemen.

These actions, though meaningful, would come at an enormous cost to both government and Canadian business (upwards of $1 billion in the case of arms sales to the Saudis), and inevitably invite further retribution from the bullies on the world stage.

With all this in mind, one sees the appeal of virtue-signalling in lieu of a more muscular foreign policy. It is telegenic, it builds on Canada’s international brand as a mild-mannered do-gooder.

But it may well come at a higher cost than the government ever imagined.

Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist. He is a freelance contributor for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @jaimewatt

Presidential successors put Bush Sr. in a new light

This article originally appeared in the Toronto Star on December 9, 2018.

Many believe that, in politics, your successor is your legacy.

Consider the straight-as-an-arrow Sunday school teacher Jimmy Carter after the Machiavellian Nixon years.
Or the steady, competent, experienced John Tory after the roller coaster term of Rob Ford.

Or more recently, Doug Ford’s approach to smaller government focused resolutely on every day family affordability after more than a decade of big, bold Liberal schemes.

But the state funeral of the 41st president of the United States, George Herbert Walker Bush, earlier this week also reminded us that a politician’s successors can also create new frames, and new prisms, with which to view their predecessor.

As every living president, along with not just the entire American political establishment but leaders from around the world — even Charles, the future King of England was there — jammed into the magnificent Washington Cathedral there was an elephant jammed in with them.

And it wasn’t the elephant that serves as the GOP’s mascot and logo.

Rather, it was the astonishing divide between the 41st President and the 45th, President Donald Trump.

As our own former prime minister Brian Mulroney opened his tribute, Trump could be seen slumping in his pew, his arms aggressively crossed on his chest, and a surl on his lips. But he was alone.

The rest of the congregation was right with Mulroney as he offered, “I believe it will be said no occupant of the Oval Office was more courageous, more principled and more honourable than George Herbert Walker Bush.”

Mulroney went on to provide a tour de table of Bush’s accomplishments: The Gulf War, NAFTA, Clean Air Act, leadership that was “distinguished, resolute and brave.”

Others went on to describe the 41st president as the last of the “soldier statesmen,” as one of the last of the “greatest generation.”

And with each accolade, with each remembrance, the difference between George H.W. Bush’s leadership and that of the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. became more painfully acute.

The sense of loss of decency in public life became clearer.

And with that how both Americans and the world thought about their former president began to change.

After all, despite all his successes, which were recounted this week, Bush lost the presidency in 1992, after just one term.

A young upstart named Bill Clinton seemed more in tune with the times. He reflected the optimism and freshness that was felt across the country. President Bush, on the other hand, while familiar and reliable — not unlike a panelled station wagon that had served dutifully — was more like yesterday’s news.

But Bush only knew one way to be president and he stood by it. He allowed journalists, historians and pundits to see him as a bumbling patrician.

Incredibly, the New York Times story that came to define his presidency reported Bush had been dumbfounded by a grocery store barcode scanner and didn’t know the price of a quart of milk.

The story, and its implication that he was woefully out of touch, had the ring of truth, and defined Bush for a generation.

But that sentiment dissipated significantly this week, as experts reflected on Bush’s presidency in the wake of his passing.

Instead of being a patrician, the pundits crowed about his gentle nature and impeccable manners. Instead of bumbling on policy, experts wrote of his pragmatism and cautiousness in a world that was teetering on chaos.

Some went so far as to say he was the best one term president since James K. Polk in the 19th century.

Today, Bush’s legacy stands in marked contrast with the one predicted in 1993, after his re-election loss.

By comparison, President Clinton, who had long enjoyed the highest approval ratings in the country, has suffered from historical consideration. His personal behaviour has clouded his policy successes and his approval ratings have dropped significantly.

It turns out how you lead, like how you live your life, actually matters. That what St. Francis taught is right: in consoling we are consoled, in giving we receive, and in pardoning we are pardoned.

And that’s why I don’t think it is random that the Bush family motto is, “et ius illud,” which when translated to English means, “do the right thing.”

Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist. He is a freelance contributor for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @jaimewatt

NDP sputtering as Singh’s sticks to risky strategy

“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake,” ranks as one of Napoleon Bonaparte’s most famous quotes.

And it is one that a number of the politicians around Parliament Hill would do well to remember.

Last week, Liberal MP for Brampton East, Raj Grewal, announced he would be resigning his seat.

And just as the Liberal government was coping with an unwelcome and distracting event, rookie NDP leader Jagmeet Singh made a significant strategic mistake.

Singh, who has yet to find traction amongst many New Democrats — not to mention Canadians as a whole — has long been without a seat. His party, which has lost significant momentum from its 2011 high, when it obtained official opposition status for the first time, has been struggling.

The leadership contest to select Singh garnered little media attention. And since then, there have been few policy positions that the party has been able to call their own.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has successfully positioned himself as the leader of the progressive movement, effectively overshadowing any attempts by the NDP to gain credibility on a host of issues. Even when the prime minister stakes out more conservative positions, such as with his vocal support for the development and construction of pipelines, the glow of progressivism doesn’t leave him.

Polling and byelection results reveal a party sputtering among voters. Polls have shown the NDP lagging far behind its rivals, and while many question the reliability of traditional political polling, the party’s results in byelections have done little to show them inaccurate.

Outside of Quebec, its results could at best be described as “middling” — and in Quebec, the epicentre of 2011’s success, the party is so far out of the game that it’s not difficult to imagine Quebec NDP MPs being a distant memory by 2020.

To make matters worse, NDP fundraising is at a recent low. The party, which has always struggled to effectively raise the money it needs to be competitive, has raised a fraction of what the Conservatives and Liberals have quarter after quarter since the last election.

The result? NDP MPs are voting with their feet: a significant chunk of the caucus have announced their plans to not run in the next election under Singh.

Not all of this, of course, is due to the fact their leader does not hold a seat. Similar struggles would not be solved by a place in the House of Commons alone.

But the fact the leader does not have a seat only serves to underscore these challenges, to make them more persuasive and to, more generally, lower morale for the caucus as a whole.

In an effort to combat a narrative that is not only developing but cementing, Singh announced he would run in a byelection in suburban British Columbia. It was a strange choice and an awkward fit: Singh had been an Ontario MPP and had little connection to Burnaby. What’s more, the seat is far from a safe one for his party.

Then, a gift appeared seemingly from nowhere: the Liberal MP who represented the very same seat in the House of Commons that Singh had represented in the Ontario Legislature, stepped down. In a byelection, Singh, a political celebrity in Brampton East and whose brother now represents the riding provincially, would have been a shoo-in.

Inexplicably, Singh declined to take advantage of this near-sure bet and has stubbornly clung to his plan to take on a risky seat; a plan with plenty of downside.

It’s a decision that has long-standing New Democrats gritting their teeth. They wonder, rightly, why Singh is risking his entire political future on a riding that he has no connection to — with no real benefit.

Should Singh lose the byelection, it is almost certain that he will face a very unpleasant uprising. It will provide his internal opponents a tangible example of his lack of judgment and confirm the view he is ill-equipped to take on the Liberals in just over a year.

Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist. He is a freelance contributor for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @jaimewatt