Category: Chairman’s Desk

Here we go again. Yet another article penned on the generation that’s most fascinated with itself: millennials.

A source of endless interest for a media transfixed by this new generation that has vastly different interests and expectations than the generations before them.

Some, no, many, would argue that more ink has been spilled on the interests of this group than is reasonable. Think piece after think piece has been churned out by magazines. Hour after hour of electronic media time has been devoted to their interest in artisanal coffee and their constant need for validation.

But what’s unavoidable is that the generation has, in many ways, been responsible for reshaping the world we live in: forcing more flexible work hours, shifting our definitions of a family units and dooming golf courses and fast-food restaurants, just to name a few.

Pundits have predicted for years that politics would be reshaped by millennials in much the same manner.

Polling tells us millennials tend to be far more progressive than older generations and, accordingly, their political preferences lie overwhelmingly with the Liberals and New Democrats.

The thinking has been that these millennials will create a strong leftward shift in Canada’s political system as they engage with it.

But so far, political parties have only been able to rely on one thing: millennials are unreliable.

While these millennials are informed, research shows that they are far more likely to engage and get involved with issue-based organizations or advocacy rather than participate in their parents’ formal political processes.

Fickle supporters who are have shown themselves to be unlikely to turn out to the polls even once their minds are made up, millennials are an unstable bloc of voters. In fact, their participation has been middling in nearly every election so far.

It almost seems trite to say, but political parties are, fundamentally, based on voting coalitions. That’s how they amass enough supporters to win a significant chunk of the vote. And when a significant chunk of potential voters chooses to opt out of the system, political parties opt out of appealing to them.

That’s not to say they have never made a mark. The last federal election saw the first meaningful engagement of millennials in the electoral system. And it made a difference in the results.

Turnout in the last federal election surged nine points to nearly 70 per cent from 61 per cent in 2011, largely on the back of millennial dislike of both Stephen Harper and his Conservative government.

And it cost Harper his job.

We saw a similar phenomenon in Barack Obama‘s elections in 2008 and 2012. Youth turnout exploded to bring the dream of a transformative presidency to life – only to see millennial engagement plummet during the mid-terms, handing Obama a Congress fully controlled by the Republicans.

We know that, historically, as voters have grown older, their engagement in the democratic process has grown as well. And in this provincial election, millennials, in their own way, may prove this point.

Andrea Horwath and the NDP should hope that millennials, who now outnumber baby boomers and are themselves growing older, will choose to vote this time out for the first time. Polling tells us that Horwath’s path to victory is paved with millennial support.

With promises of rent control, public daycare and the conversion of student loans to grants, Horwath has demonstrated her commitment to driving that turnout.

Her hope is that these signals will not only generate enthusiasm among millennial voters but will get them to the polls.

The Progressive Conservatives, conversely, have little to gain from millennials. That’s why they have chosen to campaign on tax cuts, lower gas prices and relief on hydro pricing.

The two strategies reflect who the parties believe they need to appeal to.

Horwath’s path, as shown by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau‘s large majority in 2015, can be one of high reward.

But as all too many politicians can tell you, basing a campaign on millennial support is far from a sure bet.

As the Ontario provincial election race careens into its final weeks, there is already one clear winner: Toronto Mayor John Tory.

After decades in and around political arenas at the national and provincial level, Tory has hit his stride as the leader of the fourth-largest city in North America. After decades as a partisan politician, Tory’s clout now transcends that past.

Over time, his experience as a Conservative party leader, candidate and counsellor has been transformed into a power that is rooted in a collaborative, ecumenical approach. An approach that allows him to win trust and forge alliances that go well beyond traditional party lines. It ensures whatever the outcome of the bitter provincial contest, his influence – and his agenda for Toronto – will not be diminished.

As provincial election drama has ebbed and flowed, Tory’s strategy has, from the outset, been as simple as it is straightforward. Regardless of his past affiliations, he has consistently supported the parties and candidates with initiatives that benefit Toronto and challenged those who might do otherwise. That measured approach will serve him well in the municipal election coming this October.

While Tory has declared he is running for a second term, he’s made it clear he will not seek a third. That transparency has contributed to a (for now, at least) muted response from rival candidates.

Furthermore, since he registered as a mayoral candidate, Tory has remained low key. Foregoing splashy campaign launch events, he is instead pushing ahead the approval for a transit plan – one that faces some headwinds – before city council breaks at the end of July. Throughout a turbulent provincial race, Tory has remained disciplined.

As the leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservative party from 2004 and 2009, he learned how to work with a provincial caucus that is known for being difficult to manage. Specifically, he learned how to lobby various factions, seek common ground and build agreement wherever possible.

He also learned how to manage a politically disparate city council. Over the last four years, Tory has cobbled together unlikely voting coalitions to make progress on previously toxic issues, such as the ongoing Scarborough subway saga, regulating ride sharing companies, such as Uber, and his key election promise – SmartTrack.

As mayor, Tory is known for engaging with MPs, MPPs and councillors of all stripes. He attends their functions, supports their causes and walks the high road.

For example, despite the frequent criticism of Adam Vaughan, Liberal MP for Spadina-Fort York, Tory tweeted his congratulations on Vaughan’s recent remarriage. He has worked successfully with Premier Kathleen Wynne, who defeated him in his Don Valley West riding in 2007. He and Jim Flaherty, whom he defeated in the race for the Ontario PC leadership in 2004, worked together to provide counsel to former mayor, the late Rob Ford. Tory defeated Doug Ford, Rob’s brother, in the 2014 mayoral election, but is well-positioned to work with him in future.

That ability to play nicely with all others has paid off, contributing to his ability to extract $9 billion from both the provincial Liberals under Premier Wynne and the federal Conservatives under former prime minister Stephen Harper for transit and housing projects.

That’s not to say he doesn’t face the potential of challengers in the months ahead. The results of the provincial election could well shake loose erstwhile hopefuls who no longer have plum ministerial roles waiting for them at Queen’s Park, or one of the mayor’s biggest critics, Councillor Josh Matlow, could still throw his hat in the ring.

Even so, Tory has clearly played his cards right. He remains a political juggernaut. Should potential rivals choose to bide their time, as all signs indicate they will, he’ll turn his sights to local council races, and to leveraging his considerable political capital to squeeze more promises – and funding – out of the incoming premier.

In the aftermath of June 7, Tory’s collaborative arts and his ability to reach across the aisle may well be more important than ever.

I wrote in this space a few weeks ago that Horwath might well be the exception to the rule that you never get a second chance to make a good impression.

Despite two previous unsuccessful election campaigns, this time Horwath has done a commendable job of reintroducing herself, of focusing on families and the affordability of everyday life — two things that matter greatly to many voters.

In so doing, she has positioned the NDP as a safe place for those alienated from the Liberals but unsure — or too sure in negative ways — about Ford. That perception was reinforced in the televised leaders’ debates earlier this month, where, at times, she left Ford and Kathleen Wynne flailing at one another as she serenely looked on.

Horwath also stands to benefit from the key policy areas where Liberal and NDP ideology either intersect or align: free child care, the $15 minimum wage and pharmacare are all mainstays of the traditional NDP liturgy now embraced by the Liberals.

Put another way, she will give you benefits of popular Liberal policies without actually having to vote Liberal. And so, with relatively little difference between party platforms, party leadership becomes critical.

And that’s space where Horwath stands to gain ground. Fairly or otherwise, Wynne has endured a reputational drubbing not only during her time in office, but from a laser-focused Ford. The result? Horwath has been left largely unscathed.

Then, there’s the reality that Ford has trust issues of his own with many voters beyond the bastions of rural and 905 ridings. Ontarians have historically been skittish about Tories who veer too far off the centre.

Successful conservative leaders like Mike Harris understood this. He packaged his policies as “common sense,” a successful attempt to soften the public perception of their hard edge.

After veering toward the centre in her last election campaign, Horwath’s return to the ancestral home of the left may also be rewarded. The recent endorsement of Ontario’s powerful elementary school teachers’ union, despite the considerable financial accommodations it received from the Liberal government, is a direct message as much as a broader indicator.

Time also works in Horwath’s favour. Bob Rae’s controversial tenure as Ontario’s only NDP premier — so far — has either faded from public memory or gained enough of a sepia tinge that it is no longer viewed as something to be forever avoided. More than 30 years later, revisionist factions have had sufficient time to reassess his legacy and cast it in a more flattering light.

The similarities to the past are hard to overlook.

In 2018, we have — as when Rae shot to power — an incumbent Liberal party widely perceived as arrogant, expensive and out of touch. We have an untested Tory leader who brings a persona and platform that makes many voters feel uneasy. And, at the same time, provincial voters are expressing a strong desire for change.

But, so too, the deviations from the past are equally hard to overlook.

No matter how valiantly he tried to demonstrate his populist sympathies, Rae was never quite able to overcome the fact he was a privileged child of distinguished diplomats, a Rhodes scholar and an incandescent intellect.

Horwath, by contrast, is a more traditional NDP leader. She has working-class roots in Hamilton. She’s a single mom. She’s cultivated the “I am one of you” persona better this time out. It is also more true of her than Ford who, despite his talk of rejecting elites, certainly is one when expressed in terms of family wealth.

For those tired of the Liberals, but uncertain of or unsupportive of the Ford-led Tories, the leader who seems like a good neighbour offering a “just right” bowl of porridge may be, after all, a very appealing prospect.