Ottawa’s new trade minister, Maninder Sidhu, recently told The Canadian Press his phone has been ringing off the hook with opportunities.
He shared that he’s looking to strike new deals in South America, Southeast Asia, Africa and beyond.
He added that he plans to visit Brazil to revive trade talks there.
He noted that Canada is considering “sector-specific agreements” with other countries — instead of broad, catch-all trade deals that span multiple industries — and, in his words: “We are getting very creative in how we can open up more doors.”
You can’t fault the ambition because it follows the watchword that’s been on the lips of every political talking head and economist since before Donald Trump was reinaugurated this past January: diversification.
There’s just one problem.
The entire GDP of the countries — and even continents — Sidhu is focused on barely register compared to the market gravity of the true economic superpowers: India, China, and the United States.
This isn’t to say the strategy is misguided or unworthy. And it’s not to suggest Sidhu is neglecting the bigger players — India and China are clearly on his radar (Canada-U. S. trade falls under Dominic LeBlanc’s file).
But it is to say we cannot afford to fixate on the margins while the main event goes ignored.
What most commentators have missed in the endless autopsy of Canada’s stalled negotiations with the U.S. is this: the reason the talks are incomplete is because Donald Trump is still busy with China and India.
And there’s a reason he’s handling those first.
They are the high-stakes tables. The upside is bigger. The downside is riskier. And in any negotiation, you deal with the main course before you turn to the side dishes.
Of course, Canada can’t pretend to be the entrée. We don’t have the same leverage or flexibility as the U.S. when it comes to sequencing trade priorities. But that doesn’t mean we get to ignore the fundamentals either.
We must prioritize re-engagement with China and India — not only because of their scale, but because they are the key counterweights to the American market.
While we’ve made meaningful diplomatic and economic strides with Europe, we’ve placed far too little strategic focus on the two economies that matter enormously to our long-term diversification.
With China, we remain locked in a tit-for-tat trade war. In March, Beijing retaliated against Canadian tariffs on electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum by slapping new duties on our agricultural exports.
With India, we remain in diplomatic purgatory following the fallout from an alleged assassination on Canadian soil. Yes, security talks have restarted. Yes, Modi accepted Mark Carney’s invitation to the G7 in Alberta. Yes, the ice is thawing — but the waters are still far too cold.
But now we share something in common. Thanks to India’s deepening trade with Russia, they too have landed in Trump’s crosshairs — facing a 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods. And last month, despite years of diplomatic overtures to position India as a strategic counterweight to China, Trump dismissed their economy as “dead.”
In other words, opportunity knocks.
So, the bottom line is this: Canada simply cannot afford to be out of sync with the world’s largest trading powers.
No trade trip to South America — valuable though it may be — can come anywhere close to filling that gap.
Let me be clear: this is not a dismissal of South America or the Global South. Those relationships matter. Sector-specific agreements in emerging markets are worthwhile and necessary. Nor is it to suggest we can take our eye off the United States — our largest trading partner and the bedrock of our integrated economy. With CUSMA up for review in 2026, every step we take now must be calculated to ensure Canada heads into those negotiations from a position of strength.
But if we’re going to “get creative” about opening doors, let’s start with the ones that matter most.
Because no matter how many side doors we manage to pry open, if the front gates to the likes of Beijing and New Delhi remain closed — our economy will miss out on the growth and scale only those markets can offer.