Month: May 2025

But then there is the inconvenience of reality.

Earlier this week, Gregor Robertson, the newly minted Housing Minister, told reporters he didn’t believe housing prices should go down. Not to be outdone, Steven Guilbeault explained to Western Canada that the country doesn’t need more pipelines right now. Both, predictably, drew media attention and public ire.

But the real and enduring problem for Prime Minister Mark Carney is not just that these statements directly contradict promises he made on the campaign trail — to bring down home prices and build greater energy infrastructure. Nor is it that, in this case, the political “rookie mistake” card is unplayable. Robertson was Mayor of Vancouver for a decade. Guilbeault is a cabinet veteran, and no stranger to statements that inflame Western Canada and its energy sector.

There’s a classic axiom in politics: most failures aren’t assassinations — they’re suicides.

And the weeks and months that follow an election are when governments are most prone to scoring on their own net. These are the kind of self-inflicted mistakes that drain a government’s credibility. The kind that comes back to bite you the next time voters head to the polls.

But crucially, these missteps almost always stem from the same source: a fundamental misreading of why you were elected — and what voters expected you to deliver.

It’s a strange and dangerous irony of politics that just when your mandate should be at its sharpest — fresh off a campaign — the temptation to misinterpret it is at its peak. The tunnel vision of the election clears and suddenly ministers begin seeing their new roles not as extensions of the public will, but as blank canvases for their personal agendas.

It is the leader’s job — above all — to arrest that drift. To enforce clarity. To instill message discipline. And to continually remind every member of their cabinet and caucus why they’re sitting on the government side of the House of Commons — and not wandering in the political wilderness.

In this election, Canadian voters were exceptionally clear on what they wanted: Mark Carney to take on Donald Trump. A decisive turn from the Trudeau years. Real answers on productivity, competitiveness, and growth.

For the new Prime Minister, the assignment couldn’t be clearer — or less forgiving. Because Canadian voters have left no margin for error. This is a relatively thin mandate. And to preserve it, Carney must not only stick to the plan — but communicate an unrelenting focus on delivering it.

So, here’s the bottom line. The biggest risk to Carney isn’t the opposition benches — it’s the risk of losing the plot. It’s misunderstanding the very assignment he was elected to complete. Of forgetting, too soon, what voters actually asked for.

A lot of commentators have described the challenge of this government as a balancing act. But that’s the wrong metaphor — because it’s the wrong message.

For Carney, this is no time for finesse. Voters didn’t ask for acrobatics — they asked for action.

That’s the test in the short term and that’s the test that will define him the next time Canadians cast their votes.

My advice? Keep the trip as short as possible.

The real challenge for political parties isn’t figuring out what went right or wrong. That part’s easy. What’s hard is summoning the discipline to move on from the over-analysis, post-mortems, and endless internal score-settling.

Because if there is one thing that should be clear to all parties it’s that they are not going to find answers for the road ahead by staring in the rearview mirror.

With that in mind, let’s examine three federal parties: where they find themselves now, and what they must do next to succeed.

The NDP: Down, but not out

I don’t think there’s even room left on the bandwagon to be critical of their performance in this election. So, I won’t hop on. But I will say this: those who think a two-horse race between the Liberals and Conservatives will become a permanent fixture are dead wrong. Three essential points.

First, all it takes is one election to turn it around.

In 2015, Justin Trudeau took the federal Liberals from third place and just 36 seats to a commanding majority. Provincially, Bob Rae steered the Ontario NDP from the wilderness to a majority in 1990, and Rachel Notley took Alberta’s NDP from just four seats to a majority government, also in 2015.

Yes, rebuilding after defeat takes time. But it needn’t take a generation.

Second, Canadians are used to multi-party choice. The NDP brand has deep and durable roots. They’ve come back before. They can do it again.

Third, with a strong new leader, everything can change. After his national performance in response to the Trump tariff crisis, Manitoba NDP Premier Wab Kinew looks like the perfect fit for the federal leadership role. Charismatic. Pragmatic. Principled. He could be the all-star the party is waiting for.

The Conservatives: Where’s the ceiling?

My belief in a possible NDP resurgence perfectly defines the problem for the Conservative party.

Pick your phrase. But almost anything would have been better than what we got.

A country divided. A mandate diluted. A political leash far too short at a moment we need full stride.

Of course, the people have spoken and there’s no arguing with that. But now Prime Minister Mark Carney must make do with it — and transform it into something bolder and more workable than it appears.

Because what matters, first, is how that headline is interpreted by one man: Donald Trump.

At first glance, it might seem easy to overstate the importance of majority rule when facing the orange menace to the south.

Sure, it matters to Carney’s ability to govern and the stability of his rule.

But to Trump? A man who probably doesn’t know the difference between the House of Commons and House of Cards — is he really going to parse the nuances of a Westminster minority?

Of course not.

But here’s the difference he does understand: strength vs. weakness.

Trump not only knows something about that — that’s all he really cares about. And more importantly, he knows how to skilfully exploit weakness. And that means Carney must fight like hell to wash off its scent — and do it fast.

In an ideal world, before he sits across the table from Trump to negotiate on behalf of our sovereignty and prosperity, he needs to negotiate a deal here at home — to ensure he shows up with a united front and a functioning government.

Why? You don’t enter a heavyweight title match with your gloves half-laced.

Given the signals the two will meet as early as next week, there won’t be time for that, which only means that Carney will need every bit of his own negotiating skills to get what he needs from that meeting.

And, of course, it’s not just about foreign policy. Carney’s ambitious domestic agenda — on housing, energy, trade, productivity — depends on more than bold vision. It requires a functioning Parliament. Without one, the whole platform is just a pamphlet.

That’s why the next step demands ruthless political calculation.

The good news? He has options.

The bad news? None are easy.

But he has to try.

Let’s take a look — ranked from most effective to least feasible.

1. Convince NDP MPs to cross the floor

It’s unlikely, I’m told. In the style of a last stand, those who remain are true believers.

But politics is full of improbable deals. And the pitch to NDP MPs is simple and could be effective:

Door one — sit against the curtains in lonely opposition, stripped of official party status, wielding marginal leverage in a hostile House.

Door two — cross the floor, join the government, and be rewarded. Committee posts. Cabinet slots. A starring role in a moment of national challenge. Sacrifice the purity of ideology for country.