Month: May 2022

Last night’s debate wasn’t a barn burner, but we caught some interesting push back moments for each of the parties. Who was the winner? Did this debate have an impact on voters? Our analysis is coming, so stay tuned.

Speaking of jabs, we took a look at the Liberals’ attack on PC appointments. After issuing a teaser media advisory, Liberal candidate Mitzie Hunter stood up at a podium to accuse the PCs of awarding patronage appointments to failed candidates after the 2018 election. Standing alongside a model train and vats of ‘gravy,’ Hunter declared that “Doug Ford’s gravy train never stopped — it just kept chugging along,” a reference to Ford’s previous days as a Toronto city hall watchdog.

The PC war room was quick to push back, circulating a 2016 press release from the Canadian Taxpayers Federation that revealed nine per cent of “federal and provincial Liberal candidates who failed, retired, or subsequently won an election between 2007 and 2016” were given appointments.

Why now? In the leadup to the provincial debate, campaigns are desperate to set the narrative and equip their leaders with effective attacks against their opponents. By releasing their carefully developed opposition research, the Liberals were certainly hoping to throw Ford off-kilter.

So did it work? Here’s what we saw on social media.

Social Media Volume

On Sunday, the Liberal accusations were quick to grab the attention of social media, with over 2,500 posts on the allegations. Unlike the gravy train though, interest did not keep chugging along. By debate day – likely to the chagrin the Liberals – next to no one was talking about it online.

Social Media Sentiment

Our analysis shows it may have been in Del Duca’s best interests for the story to quickly die. Hunter’s “gotcha” moment had many elements of an effective attack, but the percentage of supportive comments online were marginal. In turn, the Liberal attack failed to resonate, with many criticizing the hypocrisy, as well as the elaborate props.

Push Back Verdict – Flash in the Pan

While public appointments have been a sore spot for the PCs, it seems the gravy train left the station as soon as it arrived for the Liberals. It certainly didn’t work to raise the issue on a Sunday, a day where voters are typically less plugged in to the news cycle.

Unfortunately for the Liberals, it would seem Doug Ford’s team knows a gravy train when they see one. The swift and effective decision to claim hypocrisy, made for solid push back against the Liberal play. Liberal supporters became hesitant to engage with the story online at the risk of pointing out their own shortcomings. For a party that wants to disconnect itself from the failings of the past, this criticism left them vulnerable.

Welcome to this week’s edition of our Push Back analysis. Each week, we’re asking Ontario voters whether they think political parties are gaining or losing ground on the issues they care about most.

In this edition, we’ve asked Ontarians about who they think can best tackle affordability and the Liberal commitment to mandate COVID-19 vaccinations in schools. We also looked online to see if the recent candidate troubles experienced by the Liberals and PCs are having an impact and if organized labour endorsements are getting traction with voters.

Protecting Pocketbooks

As we noted previously, the cost of living is the top concern for voters by a landslide with 7 in 10 Ontarians identifying it as their most important issue in this election. The issue lands 20 points over health care, just as the focus on the pandemic begins to diminish. This week we asked Ontarians what party is best positioned to tackle this top voter concern.

While the PC and NDP’s plans are clearly resonating with many Ontarians, what is equally notable is the large percentage of Ontarians who either believe that none of the parties can solve the issue or are undecided. Fully 39 per cent of Ontarians did not identify a specific party as having the best affordability policies. This highlights the fact a lot of voters are essentially up for grabs if one of the parties can effectively bolster their affordability plan.

The Ontario Liberals, who trail by a good margin on this issue have tried to tackle the affordability issue with their “buck-a-ride” commitment and other policies such as removing the HST from prepared meals. Despite their buck-a-ride policy receiving significant engagement online, so far it seems they’ve been unable to gain traction with voters as the affordability champions.

Fighting the right fight?

Notably, the Liberals have been campaigning on changes to education, such as mandatory COVID-19 vaccination in schools and bringing back an optional Grade 13, putting less emphasis on the affordability issue. Although we found their mandatory COVID-19 vaccination policy had broad support across the province, education and COVID-19 remain low priorities overall for voters.

Candidate Trouble(s)

Over the past week, effective opposition and media research led to revelations about multiple candidates.

On May 10, media outlets first reported that Stephen Lecce, a high-profile PC candidate for King-Vaughan and Minister of Education, had been involved in a “slave auction” fraternity event while attending the University of Western Ontario in 2008. Lecce was quick to apologize for the incident and PC leader Doug Ford confirmed his party would support Lecce in the upcoming election, despite calls from teachers’ unions for him to be booted from the race.

Meanwhile, the Ontario Liberals were forced to drop three candidates in long-shot ridings and will no longer be contesting a full slate. Barry Stanley, the Liberal candidate for Parry Sound-Muskoka, lost his party’s nomination after reports revealed his homophobic conspiracy theories. The Liberals also dropped two of their youngest candidates, 18-year old Aidan Kallioinen in Sault. Ste Marie and 23-year old Alec Mazurek of Chatham-Kent-Leamington based on comments perceived to be homophobic that they made online as teenagers.

Breaking today is the fourth example of Liberal candidates making the news for past comments online. Noel Semple, carrying the party’s banner in Etobicoke Centre, has apologized for “hurtful” and “offensive” comments against the gay community. Media was quick to pounce on these stories – bad news makes for great press in an underwhelming election campaign – but are these issues gaining traction with everyday voters?

Online Analysis

As a high-profile cabinet minister with motivated stakeholders, the Lecce issue received more coverage. In the 24 hours after the incident was first reported on May 10, we saw a considerable spike in coverage with more than 7,000 social media posts on Wednesday. However, interest in the story quickly subsided, with just 2,000 posts on Thursday and coverage continuing to decrease on Friday.

Meanwhile, the three relatively unknown Liberal candidates received minimal media attention throughout the week, with only a slight increase in coverage on Friday when media outlets reported the Liberals would not field a full slate of candidates on the ballot.

Drop or Not?

The Liberals and PCs found themselves faced with a dilemma – whether to drop controversial candidates or stand by their choices.

Steven Del Duca was quick to dismiss the Liberals’ long-shot candidates. With little hope of winning in PC strongholds in rural Ontario, it seemed to be an easy decision for Del Duca to remove candidates with questionable views from the Liberal banner. But when an op-ed surfaced that revealed Etobicoke Centre candidate Noel Semple held anti-LGBTQ views, Del Duca was quick to change his tune – allowing him to stay on. Ultimately, in an election where every seat matters, the Ontario Liberal Party placed the bar much higher for the removal of candidates with controversial views where there was a real shot at winning.

Likewise, Doug Ford faced a difficult choice, Ford was hard pressed to desert one of his star cabinet ministers in a winnable riding. On Thursday, Ford noted that Lecce had apologized for his actions and said he would stand by him in the upcoming election.

Verdict – Winning the Battle, not the War

With coverage already subsiding, candidate issues seem unlikely to loom over the campaign. Our polling shows voters are most concerned about the cost of housing, groceries, transit, gas and daily necessities. Ontarians might not like what they’ve seen this past week but candidate gaffes (big or small) are unlikely to be what comes to mind when they head to the ballot box.

Fruits of Labour

In an “ABC” (anyone but conservative) move, this week the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation (OSSTF) announced endorsements for 14 NDP candidates and 10 Liberal candidates in the Toronto area. OSSTF has also released their NDP and Liberal picks in Peel Region, London, York Region and other parts of the province.

However, not all unions are falling in line and endorsing NDP candidates. Premier Ford and the PC’s concerted effort to woo organized labour, including passing the Working for Workers Act, which banned non-compete clauses and raised the minimum wage, seem to be bearing fruit for the party.

Late last month the Laborers’ International Union of North America (LiUNA), which represents 80,000 workers across Ontario, endorsed Ford. In an interview following the endorsement, LiUNA International Vice-President and Manager Central and Eastern Canada Joe Mancinelli stated that “the Ford government has done more in these four years when it comes to labour, labour legislation, for workers and training than Del Duca’s Liberals did when they were in office.” On Wednesday, the PCs secured another labour endorsement from the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers (IBB).

Online Analysis

The below graph shows that social media volume about the three recent union endorsements has been low, with the OSSTF’s endorsement of the NDP receiving the highest level of engagement, peaking at 168 mentions. Volume then quickly dissipated and sat at 25 mentions after three days. The two PC endorsements followed almost identical paths, peaking at just under 50 mentions and eroding from there.

Verdict – Can’t Be Seen

Although the OSSTF’s endorsement of the NDP got the highest volume of mentions online, it only peaked at 168 mentions, far fewer than the top stories of the day like the controversy surrounding several PC and Liberal candidates.

However, social media conversation cannot paint a complete picture of the impact that a union endorsement can have on any of the campaigns. Unions can be effective at organizing their members to knock on doors, volunteer and get out the vote on election day. These boots on the ground can have a massive impact in close ridings where every vote matters.

Have any questions about the news out of Queen’s Park this week? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.

The Liberal platform is out and it’s time for The Push Back to take a look at where the Liberals are holding the high ground. First, we’ll examine the reaction to the Liberals’ platform launch. Second, we look at wedge issues the Liberals have deployed to push the PCs off-message.

Liberal Platform – Did it Make a Splash?

On Monday, the Ontario Liberals released their platform which committed to a balanced budget by 2026 and laid out the party’s priorities on transit, housing, affordability, health care, and education. With Doug Ford off the campaign trail that day and ambitious promises ranging from a four-day work week to bringing back rent control, the Liberals were hoping for a big media splash. But how did their platform play with Ontario voters?

Ultimately, while the media gobbled up the Liberal platform announcement, the dozens of commitments received only a little more traction than the Liberals’ “buck-a-ride” commitment on May 2. Buck-a-ride remains very popular online, with 50 per cent of social media users expressing support for the policy. Comparatively, the platform was supported by just 36 per cent of social media users.

Mainstream Media

Mainstream media coverage of the announcement remained high over the past 24 hours with 164 TV mentions, 288 radio mentions and 294 online or print mentions. Media coverage peaked shortly after the announcement between 10:00 AM and 12:00 PM on Monday, May 9. The graph below compares coverage of the platform announcement to coverage of buck-a-ride.

Social Media

Social media volume of the Liberal platform announcement has been high – but not as high as one would expect. In the 24 hours following the announcement on May 9, there were 3,110 total mentions – only slightly more than the total 2,457 mentions of the Liberals’ “buck-a-ride” promise in the 24 hours after it was announced on May 2.

Reaction to the Platform

Reaction to the Ontario Liberal platform was moderately positive on social media. 36 per cent of posts were favourable to the platform while only 20 per cent of posts were negative. The remaining 44 per cent of posts were “neutral” – usually journalists reporting on the platform or individual users sharing articles which link to the platform.

The Verdict – Rolling Stone

The release of the Liberal platform dominated the news cycle for the day and continues to make waves as commentators and political parties parse its contents. The fact that the Ontario PCs felt the need to respond to the ODSP piece with their own policy announcement, especially on a day where Ford was not planning to be at a podium, speaks to the compelling manner of the announcement. We will continue to monitor the rollout of the Liberal platform and how various policies are playing with the public.

Driving a Wedge?

Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen the Liberal campaign attempt to drive several wedge issues into this election, including mandatory COVID-19 vaccines in schools and a handgun ban. We’re putting these issues under the microscope to see if these issues are gaining traction online and how the Ontario PC campaign is pushing back.

Wedge 1: COVID Vaccine Mandates in Schools

This past Saturday, the Ontario Liberals pledged to add the COVID-19 vaccine to the immunization schedule for schools. Leader Steven Del Duca argued the “science is settled” on the COVID-19 vaccine and that it should therefore be added to the nine existing universally required vaccines. For these nine other vaccines, parents can exempt their children from mandatory vaccination through a statement of medical exemption or for “reasons of conscience or religious beliefs.”

During his announcement, Del Duca drew a clear distinction between himself and Premier Ford. He argued that the Premier has “waved a white flag of surrender on vaccinations” and that “he’s wanted to just wave a magic wand and for COVID to be over.”

Was the attack effective? Let’s look at the numbers.

Online Analysis

Volume on social media peaked at 289 mentions on May 7, below other top issues of the day. Coverage of vaccine mandates has since dissipated drastically and is now less than 50 mentions per day.

The sentiment on social media was overwhelmingly negative, with 76 per cent of tweets criticizing the Ontario Liberals’ proposal. Negative tweets also received much higher levels of engagement.

Ontario PC Response

Doug Ford and the PCs did not take the bait on this issue. Instead, the PCs opted to push back by reiterating that they would consult with Dr. Kieran Moore, Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, on the need for any further public health measures.

The Verdict – Swing and Miss

Ultimately, due to the initial negative public reaction online against the Liberal announcement, we believe the PCs averted this wedge issue with their measured response. The initial reaction from the public was negative and that was supplemented by critical op-eds from conservative columnists like Brian Lilley. Any further fuel Ford could have put on this fire (e.g., slamming the policy, defending personal health choices) might have given Del Duca the wedge he wanted. Instead, conversation about the topic dissipated quickly, leaving the Liberal campaign scrambling to find another wedge issue.

Wedge 2: Handguns

As discussed in our April 22 edition of The Push Back, the Ontario Liberals previously announced a pledge to ban all handguns in Ontario within the first year of being elected.

It’s clear this commitment was intended to be another wedge by the Liberals to back the PCs into a corner. We’ve seen this tactic at play in previous elections, including most recently by Justin Trudeau in the last federal election.

The below graphs highlight that, not only was the proposed handgun ban a highly talked about issue, but it also received overwhelmingly negative feedback online. The data is also supported by our research showing crime ranked as low as seventh alongside education as an issue of concern for Ontarians.

Online Analysis

Social media volume peaked at 2,798 mentions on April 19. It dissipated relatively quickly the next day, falling to 920 mentions the following day and 657 mentions the day after that.

Sentiment was largely negative on this issue, with 60 per cent of tweets criticizing the Liberal announcement. The majority of the neutral tweets merely reported the announcement without any editorialization. Only five per cent of the tweets expressed support for the handgun ban.

Ontario PC Response

Doug Ford and the PCs pushed back against the Liberal’s proposed handgun ban, stating that he is investing $185 million into fighting guns and gangs and that further investment is needed to support police. However, at least online, the real push back online was from the public who widely rejected the Liberal plan.

The Verdict – Swing and a Miss

Similar to the issue of mandating vaccines in schools, the Ford campaign’s measured response did not allow this issue to dominate the news cycle for an extended period of time. Social media volume dissipated quickly after the Ontario Liberal’s announcement and as shown by the graph below, it has only had one small spike since.

Have any questions about the news out of Queen’s Park this week? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.