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Month: June 2018

Why Ontarians Relate To Doug Ford And Not His Media Critics

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A deeply revealing moment occurred just minutes after Doug Ford was declared the next premier of Ontario, having led the PC party to a large majority government after years in the political wilderness.

Traditionally, the political party leaders speak in order of their placement. With Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals placing a distant third, it was expected that Wynne would speak first, followed by new opposition leader Andrea Horwath, before premier-designate Ford took his turn on stage.

But the outgoing premier’s speech was delayed for so long that networks threatened to cut coverage at 11, potentially depriving the new premier of a critical opportunity to address the province.

So, Ford‘s team made the decision not to wait. And as it happened, the new premier spoke at the exact moment the former one did. The result? Networks cut to Premier-designate Ford.

What was truly revealing about the moment was not the actions of Ford‘s team, but of the reaction from the media after it happened.

Ford was castigated for stepping on Wynne‘s moment; for stealing her last public statement. Instead of addressing in any meaningful way the substance of Ford‘s comments themselves, media quizzed pundits about the decision to speak at that time. Had Ford done it on purpose? Was this yet another graceless act from a man the media had long-ago deemed déclassé?

The problem is, voters don’t care.

There are a few reasons for that. Many would understand that the chaos of election night makes for an imperfect evening. Others think of it as inside baseball, with no effect on their lives. And still others are so done with the Liberals that the slight was not a slight at all.

It was hardly the first situation when the media got a Ford story fundamentally wrong.

There exists a divide in the Ontario of today.

On one side, an elite class built of media types, professionals and businesspeople, and academics who control many of the levers of communication. This class exists largely in urban centres, such as Ottawa and Toronto, and agrees on a governing ideology that is fundamentally liberal in character.

But the rest of Ontario looks dramatically different.

It is a group that is far more blue-collar than the elite class imagines. Their appetite for liberal politics is spotty and their tolerance of political correctness barely exists.

And those Ontarians simply do not see themselves reflected in the media landscape.

They did, however, see themselves reflected in Ford and the PC party.

This campaign was particularly revealing in just how wide that schism runs. There was no shortage of articles written puzzling over the dislike of Wynne, with speculation that it was based in homophobia or misogyny.

The media was also not hesitant to let its disdain for Ford seep into its coverage. Reports on Ford emphasized his perceived boorishness or his lack of knowledge of policy, rather than the connection he was building with Ontarians.

And that pattern looks set to continue.

The election night coverage was not exactly an acknowledgement of a significant and decisive change in direction. Instead, it portrayed a province that was hurtling into a terrifying unknown.

It is a tenor of coverage that will no doubt continue once the PC government has been established.

We have seen in the past a disconnect between what media have deemed the important issues and with what voters have decided are the actual issues.

This will be a government where the media and the elite fixate on issues they believe demonstrate Ford‘s unfitness for office.

But much like with his brother, it will do little but cement a base for his supporters.

Ontario elected the PC Party to fundamentally change the way the province is run. And every time an outcry goes up about an issue that average Ontarians deem unimportant, it will highlight to them that the government is doing the exact job it was sent to do.

There have always been two Ontarios. But Thursday’s election saw the side without a megaphone take the reins of power – and it will only deepen its resolve to change the way the province is run.

Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist.

Trump, Tariffs, and Pipelines

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On this episode of Political Traction, David sits down with Navigator Principal Lisa Pearson to talk about Navigator’s post-election research study. In the latter half of the show he’s joined by Navigator Principals Mike Van Soelen and Amanda Galbraith to discuss the federal government’s purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline and Trump’s imposition of steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada and other countries.

 

Views expressed do not necessarily represent those of Navigator or its affiliates. 

Ford’s Victory: Welcome To The New Era Of Post-Policy Politics

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In the 1993 federal election campaign, prime minister Kim Campbell made a quip that set off gusts of indignation and, arguably, contributed to the crushing loss of her Progressive Conservative party. An election campaign, Ms. Campbell said, is no time to discuss serious issues.

A quarter-century later, that glib comment seems more like a new political mantra.

Ontario has just elected a Progressive Conservative Leader who waited until the last days of the campaign to release a mash-up of proposed initiatives with no costs attached. The rival NDP blandly admitted to a $1.4-billion math mistake in its fiscal plan. And without signalling, the Liberals veered sharply from the middle lane to the left.

To be clear, Mr. Ford did not lack the duct tape and paper clips required to cobble together a traditional political platform. Rather, the lack of platform was his platform, and his snub of policy was part of his pitch. Voters had no problem handing Mr. Ford and his PCs a solid majority nonetheless.

For what it’s worth, this is by no means an anomaly.

The victory of Mr. Ford and his party means that Ontario voters have now formally joined the ranks of others around the world who live in the era of post-platform politics and post-policy government.

Chronic volatility resulting from global markets and geopolitical jolts has led to widespread acceptance that traditional platforms – and the partisan policies upon which they rest – are largely irrelevant. At the same time, traditional party lines have blurred, allowing greater latitude to hunt and gather the bits that seem to fit the prevailing circumstances. After all, there is little to be gained from publicly committing to a resolute course of action that could be overturned by sudden unforeseeable events. As boxer Mike Tyson famously noted: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

Mr. Ford is one of a new breed of modern political leaders who wins support less for his experience or innovative ideas than for his ability to convincingly package and sell a customized mix and match of ideologies. He has never previously been an MPP, nor does he have deep roots in the provincial party he leads. But his familiarity with business and with the backrooms of politics may prove to be a strength.

Freed of a solid platform or clear policy commitments to constrain his new government, Mr. Ford stands to gain momentum quickly. For example, the Tories have inherited one of the strongest provincial economies in Canada, making a Conservative inclination to step out of the way the most positive approach.

Despite being absent from power for 15 years, the Conservatives still have the potential for a strong cabinet featuring the likes of long-time MPP and former leadership candidate Christine Elliott; experienced businessmen Peter Bethlenfalvy and Rod Phillips; Caroline Mulroney, and such seasoned MPPs as former interim leader Vic Fedeli.

A roster of talented people is one thing, but getting them all to row in the same direction is quite another. The Conservative caucus is notoriously fractious – which is one of the reasons Mr. Ford was successful in the leadership race.

That means his blunt practicality and his lack of Tory party history could be helpful in overcoming years of squabbling and back-bench back-biting. He has a proven ability to bring remarkably diverse factions from different cultural, ethnic and religious communities together in the Ford Nation tent – and to hold their loyalty.

His success in that regard has direct implications at the federal government level, where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau suddenly faces a vocal critic rather than a staunch ally running Canada’s largest province. The Conservatives’ thumping 76-seat majority, furthermore, suggests that Ontario isn’t feeling particularly Liberal-friendly with a federal election on the books for October, 2019.

The Conservative victory also suggests that the big tent of Ford Nation is now sheltering many of the multicultural votes upon which the Liberals have long depended. Many first-generation Canadians have come from countries where the privilege of debating a platform and related policies is not as deeply ingrained as part of the political tradition.

The same uncertainty extends to the City of Toronto, which has a politically and financially symbiotic relationship with Queen’s Park. The absence of a clear platform of municipal spending and support could make life challenging for the mayor facing re-election in the fall.

On Thursday, Ontario residents voted resoundingly in favour of change. They got what they wanted and now that the political campaigning is over, maybe the discussion of serious issues can begin. Or not.

Deirdre McMurdy is a principal at Navigator Ltd.