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Playing Defense: B.C. Prepares for Tough Economic Times

British Columbia became the first province to present its fiscal plan when it tabled Budget 2025 on March 4, the same day the U.S. enacted its new 25 per cent tariffs on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico. Like every province, B.C. has been preparing for this possibility since tariffs were initially floated by the incoming Trump administration in November 2024.

Budget 2025 is as much a story of what is not there rather than what is. Two key campaign promises—a $1,000 grocery rebate and low-interest financing for homebuilders—were both left on the cutting room floor with their respective price tags of $1.8 billion and $1.2 billion.

As noted in the budget preamble, B.C. is better positioned to weather the economic storm because its export markets are significantly more diverse than neighbouring provinces. The Minister of Finance has not used this as an excuse to sit on her hands, however, and has built a budget that focuses on navigating the economic uncertainty while further investing in the services that British Columbians rely on.

Major public services like urgent care, health care, schools and public transit all saw multi-billion-dollar bumps as the province looks to embark on a major infrastructure upgrade program.

All this investment comes at a cost though; B.C.’s record $10.9 billion deficit continues to rocket upward. In 2022/23, the provincial budget anticipated a surplus of $3.6 billion–how times have changed.

You can find our full analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.

The People Have Spoken: Ontario’s Next Chapter

Premier Doug Ford won a third consecutive mandate after calling an early election more than a year ahead of schedule. Riding the high of his alter ego, Captain Canada, Ford successfully positioned himself as the leader best prepared to protect Ontario from the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Speaking at his victory party, Ford said he needed “a strong mandate that outlives and outlasts the Trump administration. A mandate to do whatever it takes to protect Ontario.”  

In the end, the PCs claimed 80 seats, and the NDP held onto their role as Ontario’s Official Opposition with 27 seats, while the Liberals regained official party status, picking up 14 seats. The Ontario Greens retained their two seats in the Legislature. 

The Ontario Liberals successfully flipped four seats, gaining ground in Nepean and Ajax, and winning in the historically Liberal riding of Toronto—St. Paul’s, which the NDP have held since 2018.  

Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie lost in her own riding of Mississauga East-Cooksville but promised to stay on as leader in her concession speech.  

Voter turnout surpassed the last election, with 45 percent of Ontarians casting ballots.  

New Government Mandate 

Cruising to victory with a rare 3rd consecutive majority, Ford has secured another four-year term. With a strong mandate from the people of Ontario, Ford will view these results as an explicit endorsement of his platform, which he laid out the details of earlier this week. Look for Ford to prioritize the following initiatives throughout the early stages of the new parliamentary session: 

  • Protecting Ontario from tariffs: Ford earmarked nearly $20 billion to combat the likely impact of these penalties on Ontario businesses. 
  • Removing interprovincial trade barriers: The PCs promised $50 million to a new Ontario Trade Together Fund supporting Ontario businesses’ ability to expand into other provinces. 
  • Supporting our security: They committed to prioritizing investments in defence spending and border security, speaking directly to Trump’s criticism of Canada’s contributions to NATO. 
  • Investing in Infrastructure: The Conservatives plan to add an additional $5 billion to the Building Ontario Fund to build more LTC homes, housing units and transportation infrastructure, potentially including Ford’s wildly controversial 401 tunnel. 
  • Hurrying up Hubs: Lastly, expect Ford to prioritize keeping his promise to open the province’s 27 new HART Hubs by April 1, 2025, his $530 million alternative to the Supervised Consumption Sits currently operating in the province. 

If you think all of this sounds like it costs a lot of money, that’s because it does. Ford’s platform calls for $40 billion in new government spending, leaving some to question the Premier’s promise to balance the budget by next fiscal year. Only time will tell if a new spending blitz will be enough to push back on incoming U.S. tariffs and keep Ford’s promise to protect Ontario. 

Official Opposition Platform 

NDP – More of the Same 

While they were hoping for a more decisive result, yesterday could have gone worse for the NDP. Ontario’s Dippers managed to hold on to all of their incumbents in the province’s Northern ridings, which the Conservatives heavily targeted. They also managed to keep most of their urban seats in the province held by an incumbent, only losing Toronto-St. Paul’s to the Liberals.  

Ironically, the NDP seemed to receive the same message as Ford’s victorious PCs from Ontario voters: more of the same, please. As the Official Opposition, the NDP now have a renewed mandate to hold the PCs to account, on cornerstone issues like healthcare, housing and affordability. 

However, one question remains: leadership. While Marit Stiles won her seat handily, she didn’t perform any better than previous NDP bosses, which could be grounds for dismissal if the party is ambitious. However, given the short election period and her party’s Opposition status, expect Stiles to be granted some leniency and stay on as party head until at least the next election. 

Liberals – Bonnie in Two? 

Despite campaigning on winning in one election, Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie moved her own goalposts for the snap election call. She had three things she needed to accomplish: 

  1. Win official party status (12 seats) 
  2. Move into official opposition 
  3. Win her seat 

Unfortunately for her, she only managed to accomplish one of the three, securing official party status, and all the benefits that come with it for her beleaguered party. Outside these goals, she failed to deliver seats in Mississauga and much of the vote-rich 905.  

Will party status be enough to keep the naysayers at bay, giving Crombie a second shot, or will the knives start to turn inward?  

Close Races, Fresh Faces 

While the legislature’s composition remains largely the same, this less-than-eventful election did bring us a few tight races and fresh faces. Here are the new talking heads we’ll be seeing in the next legislative session:  

  • EtobicokeLakeshore: Liberal’s Lee Fairclough picks up over PC’s Christine Hogarth.  
  • Hamilton Mountain: Monica Ciriello gains, marking the PC’s first victory in the riding since 1999. The riding was long held by NDP MPP Monique Taylor, who is looking to make her move into federal politics.  
  • Hamilton Centre: Robin Lennox (technically) reclaims the riding for the NDP. It was previously held by Sarah Jama, who sat as an independent after being ousted from the same party. 
  • Algoma—Manitoulin: PC’s Bill Rosenberg beats out independent incumbent Michael Mantha, who formerly sat with the NDP until 2023. The PC’s first victory in the riding since 1987.  
  • Toronto—St. Paul’s: Liberals reclaim historical stronghold. Former CP24 anchor Stephanie Smyth gains over prominent NDP incumbent Dr. Jill Andrew.  
  • Don Valley North: Liberal candidate Jonathan Tsao gains over PC’s Sue Liu. 
  • Ajax: Liberal’s Rob Cerjanec narrowly pulls from PC incumbent Patrice Barnes.  
  • Nepean: Liberal candidate Tyler Watt flips after longtime PC incumbent Lisa MacLeod announced her exit from provincial politics.  

Too close to call 

Politicos will still be watching out for local recounts and potential flips as counting continues. Here are the races where it may be too close to call: 

  • Burlington: PC incumbent Natalie Pierre leads over Liberals by 40 votes.  
  • Mississauga—Erin Mills: PC incumbent Sheref Sabawy leads over Liberals by 20 votes. 
  • York South—Weston: PC candidate Mohamed Firin leads over Liberals by 44 votes. 
  • Mushkegowuk—James Bay: NDP incumbent Guy Bourgouin leads over PCs by 4 votes.   

 

Have any questions about the Ontario election? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com 

Uncertainty: Alberta Braces for Choppy Economic Waters​

The first two months of 2025 have seen a shift in the global economic context, and governments have been forced to adapt. Last year was about responsibly building the province, this year it’s about confronting new challenges head-on.

Alberta remains one of the fastest-growing provinces in Canada, and that growth continues to put pressure on the services Albertans count on every day. New this year are the ongoing trade conflicts with the U.S., which threaten to put significant downward economic pressure on not just Alberta but the entire global economy.

The fiscal framework introduced in 2023 was meant to keep Alberta’s financial situation in check and the province’s spending within its means. Those guardrails allow for deviation in the event of extraordinary circumstances—and these are extraordinary circumstances.

For the first time in Premier Smith’s tenure, the Government of Alberta is forecasting a $5.2 billion deficit, which will be reduced over the next three years. The deficit results from a doubling of the Government’s fiscal contingency in response to global volatility, as well as a significant increase in government spending while revenue remains stagnant. Almost every department will see an increase in their budget, and spending on new capital projects has increased by more than $1 billion.

Budget 2025 is unchartered waters for a UCP government, but as Minister Horner said in his address, “we are in a difficult time.”

You can find our full analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.

Sonya Savage appointed Expert Panelist at the CCPC and Senior Public Policy Advisor at Navigator

Calgary, AB, January 25, 2024 – Former Alberta Minister of Environment and Protected Areas and Minister of Energy Sonya Savage joins the Canadian Centre for the Purpose of the Corporation (CCPC) as an Expert Panelist and, as a Senior Advisor, will also provide public policy advice to Navigator and its clients.

“I’m thrilled to join the Canadian Centre for the Purpose of the Corporation’s expert panel. The CCPC’s mission to support organizations in achieving impactful ESG objectives resonates deeply with the values I’ve championed throughout my career, as a lawyer, an energy executive and as a cabinet minister. But more, I look forward to being able to immerse myself in the challenging public policy issues Navigator’s clients deal with.”

“More and more, organizations are seeking advice as they work to balance the demands of delivering on their purpose and ESG commitments in an increasingly challenging environment. Sonya couldn’t be joining us at a more opportune time.” remarked Graham Fox, Executive Chairman of the CCPC and Navigator’s Ottawa Managing Principal.

Added Jason Hatcher, Navigator’s Calgary Managing Principal “We are delighted that, in addition to having Sonya join the CCPC’s expert panel, we will be able to call on her genuinely unique experience to provide our clients with public policy advice.”

Sonya can be reached at sosavage@blg.com.

About Sonya Savage

Sonya Savage was first elected in 2019 and served as the Minister of Energy for Alberta, successfully leading the province through a global pandemic and overhauling energy policy to accelerate sustainable investment. In 2022, she was appointed to Minister of Environment and Protected Areas, overseeing the ESG Secretariat and developing the province’s net-zero climate strategy. Currently, Savage serves as Senior Counsel at BLG, leveraging her lengthy pipeline industry experience and political career to provide expert advice to clients on a range of issues. She also holds a Master of Laws in Environment and Energy with a published thesis on the evolving role of the National Energy Board. Learn more

About the Canadian Centre for the Purpose of the Corporation

The CCPC is an initiative of Navigator, Canada’s leading high-stakes strategic advisory and communications firm. The Centre releases regular analysis and guidance for business based around the expectations of Canadians. These insights inform the design of tailor-made strategic solutions for businesses and organizations to define, advance, and implement their purpose.

The Centre is led by Graham Fox alongside a panel of experts in policy, governance, business, law, communications, equity and diversity, sustainability and social responsibility. Learn more

Federal Budget 2023

A (Too?) Timid Response to Challenging Times

Budget 2023 notionally delivers the response that had been expected of the government to address affordability issues facing Canadian families, reflects recent intergovernmental agreements on health care funding, and addresses the US administration’s “green industrial policy” investments. In actuality, the budget seems too timid a response to too many disparate policy and political imperatives to make a meaningful impact on any single one of them.

From a political perspective, the suite of measures aimed at addressing the rising cost of living is understandable. Exclusive public opinion data collected by Discover by Navigator in the days leading up to today’s budget confirm that addressing cost of living issues was the top priority of Canadians at 39 per cent, beating out lowering taxes (21 per cent) and reducing government spending (20 per cent). These measures will also serve to buttress the deal negotiated a year ago with the New Democratic Party, notably the additional investments in dental care – a long-standing NDP priority.

Like Budget 2022, which was shaped by rising inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Budget 2023 is more a response to outside pressures than the expression of the Government of Canada’s desired policy direction. The question is whether the measures announced today will constitute a robust enough response to the Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, the demands of our increasingly strained health care system or the still-too-heavy burden of the rising cost of living on family budgets to make a meaningful; difference. Only time will tell, which may, in the end, be the one thing the government was playing for in designing this budget.

You can download our budget analysis here.

For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com