Category: Chairman’s Desk – Page 7 – Navigator

How Canadian politicians should prepare for a second Trump presidency

Posted on January 29, 2024February 4, 2025 by

Part cliché. Mostly truism. It is said that there are no sure things in politics.

But, after his unprecedented victories in both New Hampshire and Iowa, Donald Trump locking up the Republican nomination looks pretty damn certain.

When politicians are presented with uncomfortable realities, they can do one of two things. Run around aimlessly with their pants on fire. Or, wake up, become serious and get to work.

Sadly, Canadians politicians have been trending down the former path this past week.

Jagmeet Singh described Trump as “vengeance-filled” and an “egomaniac.” Justin Trudeau opined about his “unpredictability.”

Characterizations as profoundly unenlightening as they are unhelpful.

While those characterizations might well be true, not only is it unwise to further rile an egomaniac by calling him one, it looks weak to respond to a brewing development by perceiving it first as a major threat, rather than an opportunity.

It looks weak, because it is weak.

There may be a storm brewing south of the border — but, frankly, we have bigger problems to deal with. Our economy, and more specifically our productivity, is in a terminal state of weakness. And if Trump is going to create a storm of unpredictability, danger, and vindictiveness, we cannot afford to make excuses but need to use the wind from his storm to sail our own ship faster, and more efficiently than ever before.

The scale of our problem is staggering. Leave aside all the issues we have with housing, addiction to unskilled labour, or whatever else it may be. Our productivity, the fuel of economic growth, driver of competitiveness, and elevator of living standards, is a catastrophe.

Researchers from the Centre for Productivity and Prosperity found that four decades ago, when adjusted for inflation and currency fluctuations, Canadians enjoyed a higher per capita standard of living than average among the major Western economies.

Now, Canadians are, on average, annually living $5,000 below that average. And if the current trend continues, we will be nearly $18,000 below that average by 2060.

If Trump, anathema he might be, becomes president again, one can only hope the panic that will ensue among our political class translates into a much-needed kick in the ass.

In fact, it just might be that a Trump victory is good for Canada.

Our economic problems run so deep that an effort analogous to a wartime one is needed. And, if Trump needs to be a catalyst for that, by sidelining us from free trade, or enacting superficial, performative measures at our border, so be it.

The brutal truth is that, with or without Trump, we are in a national economic emergency. Some action is better than no action, to be sure. That said, I would have preferred, if during the Liberal’s cabinet retreat this week, the government had outlined a plan to tackle our productivity emergency instead of spending all this time on a “Canada-U. S. engagement strategy.”

It isn’t as though we are in a position of strength when it comes to economic negotiations with our American friends. Our productivity is in a sustained free fall that hasn’t been seen since the postwar years. While the U.S. will remain our most important trading partner and ally, if this ailment continues to fester we will become increasingly less important to them.

Sadly, we already are. And our politician’s current rhetoric toward the upcoming U.S. election reeks of ignorance on this point. It has no impact on Trump’s political calculus if Trudeau and Singh portray him as the big bad wolf. If anything, it probably plays to his advantage.

What would make Trump sit up, take notice and take us seriously? A concentrated effort to restore our economic usefulness.

Two birds, one stone.

Without a seat at Queen’s Park, Ontario is Bonnie Crombie’s to discover — and conquer

Posted on January 16, 2024February 3, 2025 by

So, which will it be: door No. 1 or door No. 2?

The question, of course, is one of the very first that confronts the newly elected leader of the Ontario Liberal party, Bonnie Crombie.

And what will the door she chooses tell us about how she intends to lead?

Until just this past week, Crombie was the mayor of Mississauga. But now that she is clear of this obligation and can fully turn her mind to defeating Premier Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs, Crombie must decide whether — and when — to seek a seat in the Ontario legislature.

And this is where those two doors come into play

Many would advise that it is crucial for Crombie to get a seat as quickly as possible. Those who hold this view — door No. 1 — would argue that it is only there, in the people’s house, that the new Liberal leader can effectively hold the government to account and demonstrate her ability to one day become premier.

They would further argue that it is from that green leather seat that the new leader can best form a relationship with the press gallery, which is an essential ingredient in a successful general election campaign.

And, finally, they would say it is respectful of our democratic process.

Others — and I am one of them — see things very differently and strongly believe Crombie’s best choice is door No. 2.

Door No. 2 holds that she need not worry about getting a seat until the next election. Those who believe this is the best approach understand that, for her, sitting in the legislature is a waste of time.

We believe this for several reasons — both strategic and tactical. Throw in practical as well.

Let’s start with the practical: the Liberals aren’t considered, under the rules of the legislature, to be an official party. What does that mean? It means that Question Period is essentially the Marit Stiles and Doug Ford show, with Crombie looking like a not-ready-for-prime-time understudy. It means the Liberals are not guaranteed a question every day.

A lot of time and effort that would be more efficiently spent elsewhere would have to be directed to ensuring the leader’s victory.

But now to the strategic: it simply doesn’t matter. Not a whit.

Experience in a legislature? She already has it. Crombie sat as a federal Liberal MP from 2008 until 2011.

Relationships with the media? She’s got those as well. Besides, long gone are the days when the gallery was the gatekeeper to communicating with the public.

But more than all of that, being free of the obligations of being tied to Queen’s Park will allow Crombie to play to her strengths as a terrific retail politician.

Now, it is generally believed that incumbent governments have a structural advantage in elections, that incumbency allows them to hold most of the cards.

But it is her abilities as a retail politician where Crombie pulls even with the premier. Without question, Ford is the most accomplished retail politician of his generation. He’s proven he can connect with Ontarians from all walks of life. It was central to his ability to lead Ontario through the pandemic. It remains his superpower.

That said, his responsibilities as premier, which keep him tied to the Pink Palace, don’t let him show off those powers as much as he might like.

And Crombie’s freedom from the very same restrictions allow her to shine.

So while Ford’s Conservatives will look to define the new leader with a multi-channel ad campaign, Crombie will be free to tour the province in a bus with her face splashed on all sides, giving real-life proof to another reality.

Door No. 2 it is.

In the face of gloom, here are three reasons to be hopeful

Posted on December 27, 2023February 3, 2025 by

All doom and gloom. Or is it?

It’s beyond cliché to say that the world – and our country along with it – is confronting tremendous and unprecedented challenges. But isn’t that the story of life? Dealing with the new, the unfamiliar, even the horrendous.

To be sure, as we sit on the cusp of a new year, not only is there much to despair, the sanguinity we will need to meet these immense challenges presents a challenge itself.

All that said, here are three reasons to be optimistic heading into 2024:

1. More competitive federal politics. Much of the malaise felt by Canadians has to do with the cost of living and housing. Now, these are real issues but I believe they are getting better for one reason: this government faces a real challenger for the first time in its existence. And just like increased competition in other fields reaps advantages for consumers, this will benefit Canadians.

Pierre Poilievre, unlike his post-Harper predecessors, has exerted meaningful and existential pressure on the government. The result? The prime minister and deputy prime minister are now rolling out and owning major housing announcements, and the federal government is finally taking a role in housing supply, partly through its accelerator fund; a role it hasn’t played in decades.

Sure, the purveyors of doom and gloom will argue it’s too little too late but every house that’s built will make the most meaningful of differences in a Canadian family’s life.

This pressure from Conservatives will continually force Justin Trudeau and his government to perform at their best – a standard that slipped in the face of weak opposition – in other areas as well. And that is good news for all of us.

2. Unprecedented resolve on climate change. This year’s COP28 conference was bound to be controversial and many saw the result as underwhelming. It goes without saying that tackling climate change requires urgent and decisive action, not empty words and domineering special interests.

Of course, there remain significant shortcomings. But for the first time in history, we have commitments from nearly 200 countries to move away from fossil fuels. For young people especially, this seems like the bare minimum. However, for someone with greyer hair who has seen (especially Conservative) politicians for years obfuscate and deny the impact or even legitimacy of climate change, this feels historic.

Wildfires have ravaged our communities in recent years, painfully bringing home the reality of climate change. As the United States Special Presidential Envoy John Kerry noted, this kind of international co-operation is awe-inspiring and sends a strong message to the world. For Canadians, it brings promise that the destructive impact of climate change is no longer up for debate at the highest levels of global governance.

In 2024, we cannot let our politicians and the international community off the hook. But we should be very glad that this major hurdle has been cleared.

3. The promise of Canada’s next generation. Many scrooges are down on this next generation. I’m not. There is plenty of reason to believe that this next generation of Canadians are as capable of meeting the challenges of their age, as those who came before them.

This year, many important people in my life who had made major societal contributions through their selfless service passed away. For me, their lives underlined the burden that falls to the next generation.

But this generation is marked by its resiliency and adaptability. They will grow up with an unparalleled level of education, in a multicultural society with access to diverse wisdom and experience we never had.

But there is the challenge for all of us: Statistics Canada tells us our youth are facing an unprecedented wave of depression. Many had to endure generational hardship and disruption through the pandemic. Despite this, now education participation rates are way back up to pre-pandemic levels. Now is not the time to give up on them.

There you go. Three reasons to feel optimistic about the year to come.

Pierre Poilievre’s wake-up call to Canadian media

Posted on December 12, 2023February 4, 2025 by

This past week, two developments attracted the nation’s attention.

Pierre Poilievre released a 15-minute video on Canada’s “housing hell” that has, at the time of writing, garnered 4.8 million views. And the CBC announced they would be cutting 10 per cent of its workforce.

What does a politician’s message on Canada’s housing crisis have to do with mass layoffs at our public broadcaster?

Everything.

First, Poilievre’s video. Like many groundbreaking political tactics, it’s less about the message, more the medium. In the 1995 Ontario election that saw Mike Harris win a landslide victory, we (I was part of Harris’s campaign) printed millions of copies of “The Common Sense Revolution”.

The revolution was not just self-styled — nor about the “common sense” message alone. It was also about how that message was delivered. The platform was distilled into a single, accessible brochure. Released a year earlier than was customary, and placed in every mailbox.

Nearly three decades later, Poilievre has managed to do something similar. Not just in this video but through his entire social media strategy.

And, to the astonishment of many, he’s breaking through.

But it isn’t just his political foes who should be taking notes. The CBC’s layoff announcement blamed “fierce competition from the digital giants.” In reality, the competition comes from anyone, anywhere.

The fight for precious clicks and seconds is as wide open as it is cutthroat. And the CBC has been losing, and losing badly, for some time.

Poilievre demonstrated last week that he is not only the CBC’s most vocal critic but its direct competitor. He did not appear on their programs to drive his message. Instead, he simply delivered it directly to Canadians. His own way, on his own channels and for a hell of a lot less than traditional advertising.

The financial pressures and job cuts in legacy media extend far wider and deeper than the CBC. We’ve seen wide-scale redundancies across the industry. The pain felt by this nation’s media is endemic. But so too is the sheer intractability of the challenges they’re facing.

Chopping off your leg is a foolish proposition until a doctor tells you it’ll save your life. The problem facing Canadian media is they don’t know if chopping off their leg will save anything. They can’t properly diagnose what’s ailing them. Nor can they see around the corner to the next technological revolution that will blow up their latest strategy. Who can?

While we can’t look into a crystal ball, we can, collectively, look in the mirror and acknowledge that we can’t allow our nation’s media landscape to get much worse. For it to be the next Kodak, Sears or Blockbuster – those who couldn’t, or wouldn’t – change before market changes obliterated them.

Blockbuster is an instructive example. In 2000, the company had the chance to buy Netflix for $50 million. It balked. It could not see the forest for the trees, despite it staring them in the face. Today, Netflix is valued at around $200 billion and Blockbuster is a relic.

Not all solutions present themselves so conveniently. But here is the teaching moment: the signs were there. Blockbuster ignored them. Canadian media would be foolish to make the same mistake.

This past week, many commentators restated what they’ve claimed for years – that Pierre Poilievre is the worst thing to happen to the CBC in decades.

They’re wrong.

More significant than his criticism, Poilievre’s tactics should be the wake-up call the broadcaster needs, a timely sign of how much its model needs to change, and how fast.

But, in their own way, the tactics are also deeply revealing. They confirm that Canadians now depend on social media and want to consume their news in a new way – their way. And, like it or not, technology is allowing them to do just that.

Mainstream media has a clear choice: It can meet Canadians where they are by innovating fearlessly, embracing new approaches, understanding that failure is a price to be paid and really, really working to understand their audiences. Or it can go the way of Blockbuster.

Let’s not have that.

The homeless need our compassion and commitment to act urgently and creatively

Posted on November 28, 2023February 3, 2025 by

The leaves have fallen and begun to disappear. The cold has arrived. And as harsh as that cold will be, it won’t be nearly as harsh as the reality it has brought into sharp relief.

That reality is a simple one: we are failing our sisters and brothers (yes, they are our sisters and brothers and our sons and daughters and our mothers and fathers and nephews and nieces) who are homeless.

What’s more, by our collective neglect, we have allowed this problem to grow into a crisis, or an emergency, or whatever other fancy word you might find to take some of the sting out of what has happened.

But for those who are on our streets or in our emergency shelters, there is only one word that will do: nightmare.

Homelessness should have always been at the top of the public policy list. But, for years, it has consistently been allowed to slip down that list by governments of all stripes and at all levels. Why? Because collectively we didn’t care enough to demand better.

And that was pretty bloody dumb. After all, the data is clear: the single most important determinant of someone’s success in life is a stable roof over their head.

All of life’s prospects — including social, economic and health — for our homeless population are as hopeless as their life on the streets. Life expectancy is half. Mental health challenges are significantly increased. Prospects of entry to the job market are almost non-existent. Connections with family and friends are often frayed to the breaking point.

Now that the number of homeless sits in the tens of thousands, and the issue cannot be avoided by the public eye and has raised our collective consciousness, what are we doing about it?

For the most part, our governments are not doing much.

To her credit, Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow has been on this issue for some time and has made dealing with this nightmare, priority one since day one.

But civil society — that’s all of us — has to do its part.

University Health Network (UHN) is working to do just that.

With a path-making program, UHN is partnering with the United Way and City of Toronto to build a new four-storey building on hospital grounds. (Disclosure: I am a trustee of University Health Network.)

Each with its own bathroom, kitchen, and bed, these apartments will provide a permanent home for people who currently have no where to go. A place that isn’t conceived and operated as a housing initiative or a charitable cause but founded on the importance of health care.

Think of it this way. These places will have two front doors: one to the person’s new home and one to all the resources of our health care system. And that’s the crucial part.

It was after seeing so many homeless people walk out of the hospital and despairingly right back in again that Dr. Andrew Boozary decided there had to be a better way.

With generous support from the Gattuso Institute, Boozary led the development of this program which plans to scale and spread its creative approach to help others tackle our homeless epidemic.

This is as exciting as it is sensible. Medically, it drastically increases the chances of positive health and well being. Socially, it improves not only the lives of those previously homeless but the livability of our communities. And finally, economically, it is far less costly to provide housing for people than have them stay in hospitals.

And so, this holiday season, let’s commit ourselves to two things: First, let’s make an extra effort to respond compassionately to those living among us who are homeless. Second, let’s commit ourselves to addressing this issue with the urgency it deserves. And let’s do so in creative ways which harness all the resources of our community to deal with the structural problems our sisters and brother on the street currently face.