Category: Chairman’s Desk – Page 5 – Navigator

Joe Biden has a clear path to victory: abortion rights

Posted on February 27, 2024 by

The battle lines of the 2024 U.S. presidential election are drawn, the ideologies entrenched. To say the electorate’s divisions are deep and well-established may be the understatement of this new century.

And so, now, the outcome will be determined by just one thing: election day turnout.

What else could there possibly be? A medical calamity? Criminal convictions? Maybe, but not likely.

That’s what will make this election historic. Not that it is the first rematch in almost 70 years but that it will be the first election that isn’t about persuasion but about turnout, in other words, which side can muster their voters to the polls.

Political orthodoxy would say: advantage Trump. The logic is clear. The MAGA crowd is angrier, and that anger, the orthodoxy goes, translates into more voters showing up on the first Tuesday (after the first Monday) in November.

I say: not so fast.

This election will hinge on — give or take — six states and the key districts within them. It’s here that turnout matters most and where the two strategic principles of turnout elections come most forcefully into play.

One, say what needs to be said to convince your supporters to show up on election day. Example, Bill Clinton, “I feel your pain.”

Two, don’t say anything that seriously motivates the other side to show up. Example, Hillary Clinton, “Basket of Deplorables.”

By far, the most improbable and therefore finest of Trump’s circus acts has been walking this tightrope. Seizing upon lightning-rod issues that rile up his base but not holding on so tight that it jeopardizes his electoral fortunes.

Recently, however, he’s taken a fall. And he’s done so as a result of one key issue: abortion.

During his presidency, Trump stacked the Supreme Court with conservative justices who did exactly what he promised they would: overturn Roe vs. Wade and the freedom to choose for millions of American women.

This was a categorical, strategic mistake.

The abortion issue is not abstract. It’s not a distant war in a place in Europe that most Americans will never visit, or a question of age or competency to lead; it’s an issue that has a direct impact on the life of every American woman.

Polling reveals Americans consider abortion to be a fundamental right. And, significantly, it’s an issue that drives Democrats to the polls.

Results speak for themselves. Democrats are riding a historic winning streak. Recent 2023 congressional victories extended into redder states like Kentucky. They’re raking in cash. And, most consequentially, Democrats have over-performed in every election since Roe vs. Wade was overturned.

Just last week, Democrat Tom Suozzi won George Santos’s former seat, further weakening the Republicans’ narrow lead in the House — weakness underscored by a string of legislative embarrassments, including their initial failure to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorka.

Polls are one thing. Elections are reality.

But of course, they are still proxies for the big show. And while Biden and Trump were not directly on the ballot of recent special elections, those elections reemphasize the strategic imperatives for both sides.

Trump needs to shut up about abortion. Unsurprisingly, he’s done the exact opposite. Recent reports confirm that Trump is contemplating sweeping new abortion restrictions, including a 16-week federal ban.

Biden needs to talk about little else and make the 2024 election a referendum on abortion. That means stepping outside his comfort zone: unapologetically asserting that abortion is health care and that Trump and his ilk mean to translate “The Handmaid’s Tale” from fiction into reality.

In turnout elections, where respective strengths and weaknesses are already well known, political gifts from your opponent are exceedingly rare. But the Republican’s unforced errors on the abortion issue is a gift to Democrats. One that’s paid dividends in recent elections and can pay yet again in the 2024 presidential race — if Joe Biden is ready to accept it.

To compete with Donald Trump, Canada needs a new political tool box

Posted on February 14, 2024 by

My last column discussed how our abysmal productivity will likely grow problematically acute under a new Trump administration.

It really hit a nerve.

Yet, it wasn’t the fear of Trump that caught attention, but rather the disaster that is our nation’s productivity emergency. I put forward the idea that the best way to deal with Trump was to get stronger economically and the best way to do that was to boost productivity.

While many of you quickly agreed, our political leaders are still clinging to the idea that hand-wringing about Trump as well as perpetuating a puppyish reputation in a dog-eat-dog world will somehow save us from economic doom.

Let’s be clear: It won’t.

Canada can only thrive in a Trump-led world by adding new tools to our political tool box. Let me explain.

Donald Trump represents more than just a pearl-clutching excuse to our nation’s political classes. He is the living embodiment of an uncharitable lens Canada’s elected leaders refuse to look through: the view of Canada from the outside.

For decades, that outside-looking-in lens revealed how Canada attracted international companies through our high-quality health-care, our skilled workforce and our stable, sensible government, but is today autofocused on how we must resort to bribing these same companies with preposterously high incentives.

It’s an autofocus that now shows our economy suffering from an alarming brain drain with many high-skilled immigrants picking up their bags and turning around shortly after arriving.

And that same lens projects Canada to be the worst-performing economy out of 38 advanced countries over the next forty years, achieving the lowest real GDP per capita growth.

Dead. Last. Behind Luxembourg, Columbia, and Chile.

What serious Canadian thinks that’s OK?

The very difficult, inescapable truth is Canada is sleepwalking into the future with our politicians leading the way.

All Canadians, but most especially those we have chosen to lead us, need a bucket of cold water to wake up, some Adderall to keep focused and a kick in the pants to get going.
In that last column, I wrote, “Our economic problems run so deep that an effort analogous to a wartime one is needed.”

A wartime effort is needed because it is the only frame of reference that will allow us to escape the political games that have obfuscated and distracted us from the clear structural issues plaguing our economy:

That agricultural supply management is bad for food prices and ruinous for our international trade deals.

That interprovincial trade barriers are killing our competitiveness and stifling investment.

That our public service needs sizable cuts and massive reform that takes advantage of modern technology and drives results.

That we simply must find a way to deliver our natural resources to market, particularly natural gas, in a responsible fashion that ensures we recycle profits into innovation that helps solve climate change.

None of these problems can be solved with the current political tool box. That’s the core of my point. These perpetual sticking points, regional complaints and special interest roadblocks can only be solved with new tools.

And that’s where my wartime analogy comes into play.

In times of war, we created new ministries for co-ordinating domestic industry, transformed our economy to meet global demand, and established new Crown corporations to build houses, among other initiatives.

It’s not complicated. We need the same approach today – Canada urgently requires transformative political leadership or the economic pain we’re experiencing today will feel like a mosquito bite tomorrow.

Brian Mulroney has a famous line, “Political capital is accumulated to be spent on the great pursuits of a nation.” Less well known but just as important is the line that followed it, “If you’re afraid to spend your capital, you shouldn’t be there.”

Let that be instructive to all of Canada’s political leaders today.

It’s time for those letting us sleepwalk into the future to step aside. It’s time for those willing to take us to war on our productivity challenges to step up and start spending their political capital — even if it means acting in a way that’s contrary to their short-term political interests.

History will thank them for it.

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How Canadian politicians should prepare for a second Trump presidency

Posted on January 29, 2024 by

Part cliché. Mostly truism. It is said that there are no sure things in politics.

But, after his unprecedented victories in both New Hampshire and Iowa, Donald Trump locking up the Republican nomination looks pretty damn certain.

When politicians are presented with uncomfortable realities, they can do one of two things. Run around aimlessly with their pants on fire. Or, wake up, become serious and get to work.

Sadly, Canadians politicians have been trending down the former path this past week.

Jagmeet Singh described Trump as “vengeance-filled” and an “egomaniac.” Justin Trudeau opined about his “unpredictability.”

Characterizations as profoundly unenlightening as they are unhelpful.

While those characterizations might well be true, not only is it unwise to further rile an egomaniac by calling him one, it looks weak to respond to a brewing development by perceiving it first as a major threat, rather than an opportunity.

It looks weak, because it is weak.

There may be a storm brewing south of the border — but, frankly, we have bigger problems to deal with. Our economy, and more specifically our productivity, is in a terminal state of weakness. And if Trump is going to create a storm of unpredictability, danger, and vindictiveness, we cannot afford to make excuses but need to use the wind from his storm to sail our own ship faster, and more efficiently than ever before.

The scale of our problem is staggering. Leave aside all the issues we have with housing, addiction to unskilled labour, or whatever else it may be. Our productivity, the fuel of economic growth, driver of competitiveness, and elevator of living standards, is a catastrophe.

Researchers from the Centre for Productivity and Prosperity found that four decades ago, when adjusted for inflation and currency fluctuations, Canadians enjoyed a higher per capita standard of living than average among the major Western economies.

Now, Canadians are, on average, annually living $5,000 below that average. And if the current trend continues, we will be nearly $18,000 below that average by 2060.

If Trump, anathema he might be, becomes president again, one can only hope the panic that will ensue among our political class translates into a much-needed kick in the ass.

In fact, it just might be that a Trump victory is good for Canada.

Our economic problems run so deep that an effort analogous to a wartime one is needed. And, if Trump needs to be a catalyst for that, by sidelining us from free trade, or enacting superficial, performative measures at our border, so be it.

The brutal truth is that, with or without Trump, we are in a national economic emergency. Some action is better than no action, to be sure. That said, I would have preferred, if during the Liberal’s cabinet retreat this week, the government had outlined a plan to tackle our productivity emergency instead of spending all this time on a “Canada-U. S. engagement strategy.”

It isn’t as though we are in a position of strength when it comes to economic negotiations with our American friends. Our productivity is in a sustained free fall that hasn’t been seen since the postwar years. While the U.S. will remain our most important trading partner and ally, if this ailment continues to fester we will become increasingly less important to them.

Sadly, we already are. And our politician’s current rhetoric toward the upcoming U.S. election reeks of ignorance on this point. It has no impact on Trump’s political calculus if Trudeau and Singh portray him as the big bad wolf. If anything, it probably plays to his advantage.

What would make Trump sit up, take notice and take us seriously? A concentrated effort to restore our economic usefulness.

Two birds, one stone.

Without a seat at Queen’s Park, Ontario is Bonnie Crombie’s to discover — and conquer

Posted on January 16, 2024January 16, 2024 by

So, which will it be: door No. 1 or door No. 2?

The question, of course, is one of the very first that confronts the newly elected leader of the Ontario Liberal party, Bonnie Crombie.

And what will the door she chooses tell us about how she intends to lead?

Until just this past week, Crombie was the mayor of Mississauga. But now that she is clear of this obligation and can fully turn her mind to defeating Premier Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs, Crombie must decide whether — and when — to seek a seat in the Ontario legislature.

And this is where those two doors come into play

Many would advise that it is crucial for Crombie to get a seat as quickly as possible. Those who hold this view — door No. 1 — would argue that it is only there, in the people’s house, that the new Liberal leader can effectively hold the government to account and demonstrate her ability to one day become premier.

They would further argue that it is from that green leather seat that the new leader can best form a relationship with the press gallery, which is an essential ingredient in a successful general election campaign.

And, finally, they would say it is respectful of our democratic process.

Others — and I am one of them — see things very differently and strongly believe Crombie’s best choice is door No. 2.

Door No. 2 holds that she need not worry about getting a seat until the next election. Those who believe this is the best approach understand that, for her, sitting in the legislature is a waste of time.

We believe this for several reasons — both strategic and tactical. Throw in practical as well.

Let’s start with the practical: the Liberals aren’t considered, under the rules of the legislature, to be an official party. What does that mean? It means that Question Period is essentially the Marit Stiles and Doug Ford show, with Crombie looking like a not-ready-for-prime-time understudy. It means the Liberals are not guaranteed a question every day.

A lot of time and effort that would be more efficiently spent elsewhere would have to be directed to ensuring the leader’s victory.

But now to the strategic: it simply doesn’t matter. Not a whit.

Experience in a legislature? She already has it. Crombie sat as a federal Liberal MP from 2008 until 2011.

Relationships with the media? She’s got those as well. Besides, long gone are the days when the gallery was the gatekeeper to communicating with the public.

But more than all of that, being free of the obligations of being tied to Queen’s Park will allow Crombie to play to her strengths as a terrific retail politician.

Now, it is generally believed that incumbent governments have a structural advantage in elections, that incumbency allows them to hold most of the cards.

But it is her abilities as a retail politician where Crombie pulls even with the premier. Without question, Ford is the most accomplished retail politician of his generation. He’s proven he can connect with Ontarians from all walks of life. It was central to his ability to lead Ontario through the pandemic. It remains his superpower.

That said, his responsibilities as premier, which keep him tied to the Pink Palace, don’t let him show off those powers as much as he might like.

And Crombie’s freedom from the very same restrictions allow her to shine.

So while Ford’s Conservatives will look to define the new leader with a multi-channel ad campaign, Crombie will be free to tour the province in a bus with her face splashed on all sides, giving real-life proof to another reality.

Door No. 2 it is.

In the face of gloom, here are three reasons to be hopeful

Posted on December 27, 2023January 8, 2024 by

All doom and gloom. Or is it?

It’s beyond cliché to say that the world – and our country along with it – is confronting tremendous and unprecedented challenges. But isn’t that the story of life? Dealing with the new, the unfamiliar, even the horrendous.

To be sure, as we sit on the cusp of a new year, not only is there much to despair, the sanguinity we will need to meet these immense challenges presents a challenge itself.

All that said, here are three reasons to be optimistic heading into 2024:

1. More competitive federal politics. Much of the malaise felt by Canadians has to do with the cost of living and housing. Now, these are real issues but I believe they are getting better for one reason: this government faces a real challenger for the first time in its existence. And just like increased competition in other fields reaps advantages for consumers, this will benefit Canadians.

Pierre Poilievre, unlike his post-Harper predecessors, has exerted meaningful and existential pressure on the government. The result? The prime minister and deputy prime minister are now rolling out and owning major housing announcements, and the federal government is finally taking a role in housing supply, partly through its accelerator fund; a role it hasn’t played in decades.

Sure, the purveyors of doom and gloom will argue it’s too little too late but every house that’s built will make the most meaningful of differences in a Canadian family’s life.

This pressure from Conservatives will continually force Justin Trudeau and his government to perform at their best – a standard that slipped in the face of weak opposition – in other areas as well. And that is good news for all of us.

2. Unprecedented resolve on climate change. This year’s COP28 conference was bound to be controversial and many saw the result as underwhelming. It goes without saying that tackling climate change requires urgent and decisive action, not empty words and domineering special interests.

Of course, there remain significant shortcomings. But for the first time in history, we have commitments from nearly 200 countries to move away from fossil fuels. For young people especially, this seems like the bare minimum. However, for someone with greyer hair who has seen (especially Conservative) politicians for years obfuscate and deny the impact or even legitimacy of climate change, this feels historic.

Wildfires have ravaged our communities in recent years, painfully bringing home the reality of climate change. As the United States Special Presidential Envoy John Kerry noted, this kind of international co-operation is awe-inspiring and sends a strong message to the world. For Canadians, it brings promise that the destructive impact of climate change is no longer up for debate at the highest levels of global governance.

In 2024, we cannot let our politicians and the international community off the hook. But we should be very glad that this major hurdle has been cleared.

3. The promise of Canada’s next generation. Many scrooges are down on this next generation. I’m not. There is plenty of reason to believe that this next generation of Canadians are as capable of meeting the challenges of their age, as those who came before them.

This year, many important people in my life who had made major societal contributions through their selfless service passed away. For me, their lives underlined the burden that falls to the next generation.

But this generation is marked by its resiliency and adaptability. They will grow up with an unparalleled level of education, in a multicultural society with access to diverse wisdom and experience we never had.

But there is the challenge for all of us: Statistics Canada tells us our youth are facing an unprecedented wave of depression. Many had to endure generational hardship and disruption through the pandemic. Despite this, now education participation rates are way back up to pre-pandemic levels. Now is not the time to give up on them.

There you go. Three reasons to feel optimistic about the year to come.