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Category: Chairman’s Desk

For campaign clues, watch where the leaders go

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This article originally appeared in the Toronto Star on September 15, 2019.

With the prime minister’s visit to Rideau Hall on Wednesday morning, Parliament was formally dissolved and the summer’s so-called “fake” election campaign, mercifully, brought to an end.

And with it, Canadians began to hear not just the noise of the campaign messaging but the noise of the parties’ campaign buses and planes as well.

It is that noise, the noise of the leaders’ tours, that is in many ways the canary in the coal mine when it comes to understanding how the election is unfolding.

Watch leaders visit ridings that pundits would describe as unwinnable and you’ll know the party thinks they are on their way to victory. Watch them hold a rally in a “safe” riding and you will know the party’s war room is in full-scale panic.

In 2015, for example, many observers could not believe some of the far-flung places Justin Trudeau was choosing to visit, rather than focusing on ridings with strong Liberal potential in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. What those observers missed was that Trudeau could afford to visit Canadians from coast to coast because he didn’t need to shore up votes. The tour, for those who were watching, foretold the election results.

So, here are some things to watch for in election No. 43.

After his remarks on Wednesday, Trudeau headed to Vancouver-Kingsway for his first rally of the campaign. Historically, the federal Liberals have not been especially competitive in B.C., but in 2015 they did unusually well. This time out you can bet they will be laser-focused on nailing down those seats, especially given the momentum in the province of Elizabeth May’s Greens.

So, no surprise that the prime minister chose B.C. for his kickoff. However, if we see him lingering around the west coast throughout the campaign, that may be a sign of trouble in other Liberal strongholds.

While the prime minister spoke from Rideau Hall, Andrew Scheer was en route to Trois-Rivières to make his case in the Quebec riding, which has not elected a Conservative since 1988. Over the next few weeks, I expect we will find Scheer in similar ridings across Quebec, attempting to capitalize on Jagmeet Singh’s weakness in the province.

Later in the day, Scheer descended on the GTA, another essential battleground for him. If he can manage to secure a sufficient number of 905 ridings, he may have a shot at forming government.

To do so, he will have to deal with the headwinds coming from his provincial cousins at Queen’s Park. A teachers’ strike this fall, for example, could pose more than just a messaging challenge for him. It could require Scheer to spend more time in the province than he otherwise might have planned.

For Jagmeet Singh, worrisome trends from pre-summer polling have not abated and Elizabeth May seems poised to eat the NDP leader’s lunch in B.C. and parts of the Atlantic provinces. The Greens have spent the past year presenting themselves as a viable third option for voters at the expense of the NDP.

If you hear Singh talking about May rather than Trudeau or Scheer, it means he is more focused on saving the furniture, as the cliché goes, than gaining ground. If Singh is forced to spend his time fending off incursions from the Greens rather than swiping seats from the other two parties, that would spell serious trouble for the NDP.

For May, who Canadians seem to have finally grown comfortable with as a political actor, the thing to listen for is yet another apology. If she is caught in another gaffe, Canadians may well be reminded of their past fears of the Greens. And that bloc of voters may then turn back to one of their traditional choices.

The campaign will, of course, bring with it many unpredictable twists and turns that will be impossible to unscramble until Election Day.

That said, watching the leaders’ tour itineraries will provide you with an insight into the thinking of campaign strategists, if nothing else.

Advice to party leaders on summer stumping

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This piece first appeared in the Toronto Star on June 23, 2019.

As the warm weather finally sets in and the House rises for the summer, the leaders of our federal parties will begin to have visions of electoral success dance in their heads.

Conventional wisdom tells us Canadians don’t want to hear from their politicians at this time of year — they would rather tune out the news and let leaders flip burgers and pal around at the Calgary Stampede.

But before they checked out for the summer, millions of Canadians gathered around their television screens to watch the Raptors claim the country’s first NBA title. And third-party advertisers took advantage of record television audiences to impress upon Canadians the key narratives and frames that will follow the leaders into the fall federal election: Andrew Scheer was tagged as “weak.” We were reminded that Justin Trudeau is (still) “not ready.”

And Jagmeet Singh’s current position in the polls meant he suffered the ultimate humiliation: no one even bothered to attack him.

So while it may be traditional to take a pause before the start of the campaign, the intensity of the pre-emptive air war (and the increasingly stringent campaign spending rules) has changed the conventional calculus that leaders can take a break and simply ramp things up come September. Now that the messaging of their opponents has begun to take hold, it would be a mistake to allow it to set in over the summer.

For the prime minister, bad news abounds: the Conservatives are leading in the polls and many observers predict the Liberals would be lucky to secure a minority.

Trudeau’s polling has been worsening since mid-February, around the time that Jody Wilson-Raybould resigned as Minister of Veterans Affairs amid the SNC-Lavalin affair. But there may be a silver lining. That decline seems to have finally slowed, along with the steady Conservative gains that accompanied it.

Now it’s up to the prime minister to convince Canadians there is still a job to be done, and he is the right man to do it. Along the way, he would do well to avoid further gaffes, like his comment about “drink-box water bottles.” Such moments may seem benign, but they are red meat for the likes of viral content factories such as Canada Proud.

For Andrew Scheer, the most crucial thing will be for him to build his own brand, distinct from the Jason Kenney-Doug Ford coalition that has come to define conservativism in the minds of many Canadians over recent months.

Polls suggest this has not worked to Scheer’s advantage, particularly in Ontario, where candidates out door-knocking have found voters conflating the provincial party with their federal counterparts — and not necessarily in a positive light. While the Conservatives have effectively capitalized on Trudeau’s SNC-Lavalin woes, their momentum has been slowing. Scheer should devote his summer to travelling the country, making himself more accessible to Canadians and proving he is a viable option as prime minister.

Considering the New Democrats’ dismal standing in the polls to date, my advice to Jagmeet Singh is simple: batten down the hatches.

With support crumbling in former “Orange Wave” ridings, the NDP leader needs to accept the reality that this campaign is not a winning opportunity, but rather an attempt at survival. For the party, that means they must carefully prioritize ridings they can actually win or hold, rather than make any long-shot efforts at incursions elsewhere.

What’s more, the weakness of the NDP seems to be paying off for Elizabeth May’s Green party.

On Tuesday, Ekos released the first poll to show the federal Greens ahead of the New Democrats. While it may have been less than a two-point lead, it’s clear the party’s message is resonating with at least some Canadians.

With another elected MP by her side, May should be laser-focused on maintaining that momentum over the summer.

For every leader, I would advise them to remember — as the Raptors victory and so many other events have shown us — that this is truly a year of firsts. Anything can happen, especially during an election. And while that may be a blessing for some, for others it may well prove to be a curse.

Ontario Liberals opt for good TV at leadership convention

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This editorial first appeared in the Toronto Star on June 16, 2019.

Two weeks ago, the Ontario Liberals began the long and arduous process of rebuilding their shattered party. Now reduced to a caucus of five — or what some impolite wags refer to as “the minivan caucus” — the party membership gathered in Mississauga to determine just how they will go about selecting a new leader next March.

The business of drafting the rules of a leadership race may well conjure up stereotypical images of smoke-filled back rooms but the work is anything but arcane. Recall how for the federal Liberals, the race that brought Justin Trudeau to the helm of the party also revitalized the entire organization. It brought in a new generation of excited members and garnered a tsunami of earned media coverage.

That’s why so many observers were puzzled by the choice the Ontario Liberal party made last week to effectively keep the rules of the race the same as before: the provincial party decided against dropping membership fees, and more importantly, against moving away from a delegated convention in favour of one-member, one-vote.

Under a delegated convention, riding associations elect delegates, who assemble at a convention and choose the new leader through a series of successive ballots. Under a one-member, one-vote approach, which most Canadian political parties have adopted, all party members get to cast their vote, typically through an online portal. In that model, the convention functions simply as a venue to announce the results.

Even though the Liberals adopted a hybrid system in 1991, which allows party members more say in how delegates cast first ballot votes, delegated conventions have been derided as antiquated; this very newspaper called the OLP’s decision “old-style.”

Old style it may be, but there is, of course, the sheer spectacle of it all. There is a reason that American political parties have continued to opt for delegated conventions. Delegates shifting their allegiances among the candidates in real time, punctuated by rousing speeches from would-be party leaders, all makes for compelling television. And if there is something the Ontario Liberals could use right now it is some compelling television. Brutal has been the fall from government to no-party status.

In January 2013, when the party elected Kathleen Wynne at such a convention, television networks ran non-stop coverage for nearly two days. Eric Hoskins staged a theatrical floor-crossing, feigning a walk to Wynne’s rival Sandra Pupatello before marching over to Kathleen’s camp. CTV News called it a “thrilling” convention and mourned the prospect that it could be the last conducted in this way.

In 1996, when Dalton McGuinty was elected leader, it was a classic dark-horse race that didn’t end until 4 a.m. With delegated conventions, the drama comes baked in.

On the other hand, one member, one vote formats often deliver results that are expected. That’s because the format favours front-runners with large organizational and financial resources. At least that has, more often than not, been the story of the history of the Conservatives in Ontario. Think of Patrick Brown, John Tory, Tim Hudak and Ernie Eves.

The exception, of course, is Doug Ford and it may well be that concern about the emergence of an equivalent insurgent candidate had an impact on the decision the Liberals made last week.

Finally, there is the practical matter of the vote’s integrity. Using an online portal has proven liable to technical difficulties, which can forestall or even overshadow the ultimate outcome. The race to replace Jack Layton as leader of the federal NDP was plagued by hacks and overwhelmed computer servers. The entire unfortunate affair sapped the excitement out of Thomas Mulcair’s victory, and he struggled for some time to regain momentum.

Given all of this, it was no surprise the Liberal party fell short of the two-thirds vote of the members needed to change the system. The race for the next leader will consume the party through March 2020 — already, several contenders have thrown their hat into the ring, including Steven Del Duca and Michael Coteau.

And one way or another, I bet we’ll all be watching.

A lesson in valour from Juno Beach

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This editorial first appeared in the Toronto Star on June 9, 2019.

On the Normandy coast, the few remaining brave veterans gathered, their numbers depleted by the unrelenting ravages of time. They were joined by politicians from every nook and cranny of our country, military brass, and serving soldiers, sailors and airwoman and men.

And thousands upon thousands of everyday Canadians and French. All gathered to commemorate, and remember, the 75th anniversary of the largest combined military operation in history and, arguably, the crucial turning point in the Second World War: the Allies D-Day landing.

The air was filled with an almost partylike atmosphere. The weather was glorious. Event planners from Veterans Affairs Canada efficiently checked guests off lists and issued colour-coded wrist bands. Along the route, French authorities closed roads and provided motorcycle escorts.

The French stood by the roadside and, all these years later, expressed their enduring gratitude with quiet and solemn waves. Canadian flags, along with those of our allies, flew everywhere — not just from public buildings but from homes and apartment balconies.

Friends greeted friends. They made plans for dinner. It felt peculiar, almost surreal.

As we took our seats for the start of the ceremony, that feeling didn’t change. As lovely as it was, it all felt, in many ways, no different from many other ceremonies. Bilingual. Inclusive of our Indigenous sisters and brothers. Anthems were sung. Music was played. A thoughtful speech was given by our prime minister. It was all, well, appropriately Canadian.

And then everything changed.

From the beach came 359 young Canadian and French boys, each one representing a Canadian who was killed on that day 75 years ago. And from that beach those kids kept coming and coming.

Each carried boots or flowers or a helmet in remembrance but it was their age, roughly the same as those who lost their lives, which made the greatest impression of remembrance on me.

It was at that moment that I truly understood the difference between valour and courage.

Courage, of course, is the ability to do something one finds frightening, while valour is strength, determination, heroic bravery in the face of unimaginable danger.

Part of the act of remembrance is to remember that these were boys — kids we would call them today — who fought a war which was not their own. They were volunteers, every last one of them, who understood that the duty of a free citizen is the willingness to fight to preserve that freedom.

They took the beaches, many of them in their first military engagement, and remained fiercely committed to holding that ground as the world fell apart around them.

And the beach was only the beginning.

Their belief in a better world drove them further and further — from the beaches of Normandy to the heart of the continent and beyond. Caen, where Canadian flags flew this week alongside the tricolore, was a turning point on this road to salvation. A city martyred for peace and the enduring belief in something better.

And like the city itself, that hope has endured. The veterans who spoke on Thursday told a story that books never could. A story of valour but also the insanity of a time when young people were sent into the world with Canadian emblems sewn not onto their backpacks but rather the shoulders of their uniforms.

And when the war was done and they came home, they went on to be, in the words of journalist Tom Brokaw, the “Greatest Generation,” for their resolve coming of age in the Great Depression and their sacrifice in the Second World War.

Standing on Juno Beach, I came closer to understanding the power of that resolve, realizing how the discipline of one step forward can carry a person — and a generation.

And closer to understanding just how important Laurence Binyon’s words from his poem, Ode of Remembrance, are.

As he said, “we will remember them.”