Category: Chairman’s Desk

After what some observers saw as a slow start, Erin O’Toole is making this election campaign his.

O’Toole understands the difficulty of fighting an election as the new face of a centre-right party. History, after all, is rife with Tory leaders who failed to make their mark or take control of their party early enough. So far, Erin O’Toole has learned from the past and set himself up brilliantly to avoid the same fate.

One lesson comes from former British Conservative prime minister David Cameron’s 2005 party conference speech, when he was still a leadership hopeful. The speech carried him to win the leadership and later came to define his vision for “a modern, compassionate conservatism.”

In order to form government after eight years in opposition, Cameron argued, the Conservatives needed to drastically reimagine their role in political life and become more positive, forward-looking and optimistic about changes in society. “There’s one thing [soon-to-be Labour leader] Gordon Brown fears more than anything else: a Conservative party that has the courage to change. So let’s give him the fright of his life.”

Canada’s Conservatives have been in opposition only six years, and Erin O’Toole is a very different politician from Cameron. But the guiding sentiment of Cameron’s speech outlines exactly what O’Toole needs to win this election: a Conservative party with the courage to change. If he can present his party to Canadians in those terms, it will surely scare the pants off Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

And as we enter the crucial third week of the campaign, O’Toole seems to be succeeding at exactly that.

The Tories are now roughly tied with the Liberals in most polls, having closed a gap of nearly seven per cent. O’Toole has done a tremendous job introducing himself to Canadians in just two weeks, and his team executed a political judo move by dropping their platform only two days into the campaign.

But most importantly, along the way, Erin O’Toole has changed the dynamic of this election. He is likeable, adaptable, and day by day, he is bravely charting new territory for a Tory leader, addressing head-on the kinds of issues that often bungle Conservative campaigns.

O’Toole has spoken clearly about his pro-choice views, the significance of climate change and other perennial wedge issues. Earlier this week, he affirmed his commitment to action on reconciliation and even made a splash by forcefully addressing LGBTQ health issues (I, for one, did not have “Tories push to revisit ban on poppers” on my campaign Bingo card).

There will be much ado about this approach, but I applaud O’Toole and his team for their bold strategy thus far. By plunging headfirst into these issues, he is making himself impervious to the usual late-election attacks by the Liberals.

In the past, the Liberal campaign machine has seized on the grey areas of Conservative policy, using them to transform the Tory leader into an election boogeyman. But O’Toole has pulled that strategy out from under them: he’s done all he can to erase any grey areas that may exist and prove he is no monster.

So, do not expect this campaign to play out like past elections — Erin O’Toole has seen this movie before, and he refuses to be cast as the villain.

That is not to say the Liberals won’t try. This week came the ultimate test, as Liberal candidate Chrystia Freeland and others accused O’Toole of attacking the sanctity of universal health care. O’Toole fared well, explaining that he is an advocate for greater choice and that he simply supports provinces across Canada pursuing new methods as they see fit.

The fact is, Erin O’Toole came into this election with very low expectations, and he has already far exceeded them. Now his task is to keep this steady pace and avoid peaking before he is within striking position of Trudeau and the increased scrutiny that brings.

The odds may have been against O’Toole, but today his task remains the same as the one he outlined in his leadership speech one year ago: “to show Canadians [his] vision for a stronger, prosperous and more united Canada.”

What a comfort then, that the more O’Toole shows of himself, the clearer that vision becomes.

Over the past week, as each federal leader has criss-crossed the country, each has tried to use personality and personal charisma to steal the show and run away with the momentum that’s needed to win.

RCAF Dad, a.k.a. Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole, has been meeting Canadians and pitching his platform. Green Leader Annamie Paul has been raising her party’s profile across main street Ontario. And after a slow kickoff with a minor policy announcement, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau has moved west to inject some energy into B.C. ridings that have all of a sudden become competitive.

But for those following closely, the one to watch this week was NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who was eagerly courting voters not in safe, bedrock NDP strongholds, but in ridings with the potential to flip his way, like Burnaby North—Seymour and Edmonton-Griesbach.

A leader’s campaign itinerary speaks volumes about their strategy and, more importantly, their expectations for election day. Singh’s grand early tour of potentially fertile new ground — rather than existing seats — suggests the NDP is confident enough to play offence.

And not without good reason. Polling from Discover, our firm’s research team, suggests that Jagmeet Singh may be the decisive factor in the outcome of this election.

We already know that a slight majority of Canadians want a new governing party. We also know that while the NDP’s national polling is lukewarm, Singh’s personal ratings tell a different story. He is only two points behind Trudeau in national positive impressions and, crucially, he pulls ahead in B.C. and Ontario, both must-win territories for the NDP.

These numbers become even more interesting when you consider whether or not this election is a referendum on Justin Trudeau’s handling of the COVID pandemic.

It is not.

Rather the opposite: our polling shows that only 14 per cent of Canadians intend to vote based on Trudeau’s pandemic performance. Conversely, 43 per cent plan to vote based on each party’s plan for the future, and 38 per cent based on priority issues.

So this is no backward-looking election that seeks to relitigate the past. Rather, Canadians are focused on what’s ahead. And it’s the frame of an aspirational election voters will use.

This public opinion landscape is ripe for Singh’s NDP to reassert themselves. Not only because of the appetite for change, but also because many of his party’s campaign pillars speak directly to Canadians’ concerns for the future. In policy terms, more than one-third of Canadians feel Singh would do better than Trudeau on Indigenous issues. On climate change, 30 per cent of Canadians feel Singh is better suited to the task.

And ultimately, when it comes to “what kind of country do you want to live in?” many Canadians aspire to live in a country that is led by someone like Jagmeet Singh: a young, racialized leader who is tuned into the issues of the day. Especially urban Torontonians and West Coast progressives who have grown more conscious of racial justice and equity issues. It is exactly those voters who will keep Trudeau from a majority, if Singh has his way.

The position of today’s NDP is reminiscent of the modern party’s most successful standard-bearer. Just over 10 years ago, Jack Layton was leading the NDP into his fourth election as leader. Then, as today, the party was in fourth place and buoyed by remarkably positive sentiment toward its dynamic leader. Layton’s NDP swept the country and did the unthinkable, coming within grasp of the levers of power.

To be clear, Layton’s victory was a decade in the making, and relied on much more than his own charisma. But make no mistake — in times of change, when voters yearn for something “else,” personal affinity is hugely important. It can be the difference between someone staying home or trying something new at the ballot box.

Still, it remains to be seen if young voters turn out and whether fears of the unknown will trump the desire for change. But at the very least, Singh has a fighting chance to keep the Liberals from their coveted majority.

Finally, the wait is over.

After months of will-he-or-won’t-he speculation, the prime minister is expected to walk across the lawn today and knock on the door of Rideau Hall.

There he will ask its new occupant, Governor General Mary Simon, to take a few moments away from unpacking moving boxes to sign the writ dissolving Parliament and calling a federal election.

Trudeau will do so confident that now is the right time to dispense with the pesky restrictions of a minority government and secure a majority.

But not so fast.

Party strategists have a habit of getting ahead of their skis and in doing so forget one of the most important axioms of politics: campaigns matter. The road of political dreams is littered with the failed results of those who did not understand that their reach would exceed their grasp.

Now, to be sure, as the candidates come out of the gate Trudeau looks to be in an enviable position. Canadians are generally satisfied with how his government has handled the pandemic, and believe that they are not worse off than they were four years ago. There is not the kind of palpable anger across the land which has seized our southern neighbours. Add to that a rookie opponent on the right and the prospect of a serious public health threat in the coming winter months, and now certainly looks like a good time — or at least the most opportune time — to go.

Who can blame the Liberals for their optimism? Listening to pundits and dinner table conversations, you would think the outcome was preordained — that Trudeau and the Liberals had already tied the whole thing up and stolen away with the 15 additional seats they’ll need to push on undeterred with their spending plans.

But campaigns do matter, and the way things look as the campaign buses take to the roads may be very different when the party faithful gather in hotel rooms to await the results 36 days later.

Think of David Peterson’s snap election in 1990 that cost him his majority government. Driven by an astonishingly positive top-line public opinion environment, Peterson’s Liberals allowed themselves to believe that no campaign could damage their lead.

More recently, think of Stephen Harper’s decision to suspend Parliament for the longest writ period in modern history. Harper no doubt believed the more Canadians could see of Justin Trudeau’s inexperience, the more secure they would feel with Harper’s stern seriousness. Ultimately, it was the latter they grew tired of, while their yearning for the former catapulted the number three party into government.

So, as we find ourselves on the doorstep of yet another campaign, remember the election period will bring with it risk and opportunity for each of the players.

Especially now, when so much else seems uncertain, the campaign could change everything.

What if the fourth wave worsens and Canadians become furious over the gamble Trudeau has taken with their health? What if growing frustration with COVID restrictions boils over into all-out rage? What if Jagmeet Singh and other progressive personalities prove far more magnetic than our time-hardened and world-weary prime minister?

Above all, what if the political state of play is much more complicated than we want to admit? A few important data points from new polling by our firm Navigator suggest a seriously divided electorate.

Canadians were asked, assuming an election is called, whether they want stability in the form of a Liberal majority or the change promised by electing a new government. Over half — 58 per cent — preferred change, while the remaining 42 per cent wanted a Liberal majority. Asked whether they feel the country is on the right track or the wrong one, the split is even tighter at 51 to 49 per cent, respectively.

This data indicates a serious appetite for change, but it also suggests a country very closely divided on how to achieve it.

Anyone who says this campaign is a done deal, is simply dead wrong. While we may not want to admit it, the division in our country runs deep, and the impact of the past two years on our politics remains unclear.

As a result, the outcome of this election may surprise even the closest observer — including those sitting in the PMO, who called it in the first place.

Finally, summer is well and truly here.

After a particularly gruelling spring complete with a few intermittent “false” summer days, the weather has warmed and reminded us just how lucky we are to live in this beautiful country — glorious and free.

Yet, as the idyll of summer approaches, there lurks a disruption on our road to a return to a new normal: a federal election campaign.

With vaccine rates outpacing most predictions and months of election speculation reaching a fever pitch, it seems ever more likely that Trudeau will push forward to the polls.

So, before the summer break begins in earnest, a bit of advice for each leader as they prepare for a gruelling campaign.

First, Green Party Leader Annamie Paul.

If you hadn’t heard of Paul before, you may well have been introduced to her through reports of party infighting, or the floor crossing of former Green MP Jenica Atwin to the Liberals.

Notwithstanding all that noise, Paul is a figure to watch. She is the first Black Canadian and the first Jewish woman to lead a federal party. She is also the subject of a leadership review that could see her removed as leader on July 15.

If she survives, my advice is simple: prove your mettle. If racism and misogyny in the Green ranks is indeed the root of this leadership challenge, clean it up. Fast.

At the same time, make the most of this moment, because the Greens may never get more coverage than they will in the coming months.

For Jagmeet Singh, this election will be pivotal.

The NDP have been largely absent over the course of the pandemic, forced to prop up Trudeau’s recovery agenda while the Liberals eat their lunch with big spending on socially liberal policies.

So far, Singh has failed to show that his party can form an effective opposition. It is time for him to do so, or risk proving right those in his caucus who have accused him of frittering away the last year.

Next up, with 32 seats in the House, Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet.

Of all the leaders, I would bet that Blanchet is sleeping most soundly ahead of a pending campaign.

That’s because he has the lowest bar to reach. Having won 22 new seats in 2019 and proven himself adept at winning concessions in Parliament for Quebecers, Blanchet simply has to hold enough seats to maintain that influence.

Now, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole.

In normal times, the campaign would be a proving ground for a rookie leader like O’Toole — but these are not normal times. O’Toole’s party members will expect him to hold the Liberals to at least a minority if he is going to be secure in his leadership.

My advice? Think beyond COVID. Show Canadians you can lead the country. Demonstrate how you will deliver on a broader range of issues.

And keep moving fast. While members have complained of O’Toole’s decisive action on items like climate policy and removing Derek Sloan from caucus, he has proven himself so far. O’Toole has shown a pragmatic determination to make the party more competitive in today’s world.

He knows, after all, that come fall, the Liberals will do what they do best: tie Conservatives to the spectre of a hidden anti-choice and climate-skeptical agenda. If O’Toole maintains his momentum, he will be much better positioned to defend himself.

Finally, to the prime minister: prepare for the fight of your life.

The pandemic has bought the Liberals breathing room as the opposition parties avoid division and the country has “rallied around the flag.”

But once the writ is dropped, all bets are off. The opposition parties will be out to tar the Liberals for their COVID record. And the patty-cake relationship with provincial leaders will fall to the wayside.

For Justin Trudeau, a minority win is not enough. If he can’t win a majority, he may as well hit the road.

But don’t count the PM out. He is at his best when he is in a fight — and he and his team know how to fight. Trudeau has the best pathway to a win of any of the leaders. His challenge will be having the discipline to stay the course.