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Playing Defense: B.C. Prepares for Tough Economic Times

British Columbia became the first province to present its fiscal plan when it tabled Budget 2025 on March 4, the same day the U.S. enacted its new 25 per cent tariffs on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico. Like every province, B.C. has been preparing for this possibility since tariffs were initially floated by the incoming Trump administration in November 2024.

Budget 2025 is as much a story of what is not there rather than what is. Two key campaign promises—a $1,000 grocery rebate and low-interest financing for homebuilders—were both left on the cutting room floor with their respective price tags of $1.8 billion and $1.2 billion.

As noted in the budget preamble, B.C. is better positioned to weather the economic storm because its export markets are significantly more diverse than neighbouring provinces. The Minister of Finance has not used this as an excuse to sit on her hands, however, and has built a budget that focuses on navigating the economic uncertainty while further investing in the services that British Columbians rely on.

Major public services like urgent care, health care, schools and public transit all saw multi-billion-dollar bumps as the province looks to embark on a major infrastructure upgrade program.

All this investment comes at a cost though; B.C.’s record $10.9 billion deficit continues to rocket upward. In 2022/23, the provincial budget anticipated a surplus of $3.6 billion–how times have changed.

You can find our full analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.

The People Have Spoken: Ontario’s Next Chapter

Premier Doug Ford won a third consecutive mandate after calling an early election more than a year ahead of schedule. Riding the high of his alter ego, Captain Canada, Ford successfully positioned himself as the leader best prepared to protect Ontario from the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Speaking at his victory party, Ford said he needed “a strong mandate that outlives and outlasts the Trump administration. A mandate to do whatever it takes to protect Ontario.”  

In the end, the PCs claimed 80 seats, and the NDP held onto their role as Ontario’s Official Opposition with 27 seats, while the Liberals regained official party status, picking up 14 seats. The Ontario Greens retained their two seats in the Legislature. 

The Ontario Liberals successfully flipped four seats, gaining ground in Nepean and Ajax, and winning in the historically Liberal riding of Toronto—St. Paul’s, which the NDP have held since 2018.  

Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie lost in her own riding of Mississauga East-Cooksville but promised to stay on as leader in her concession speech.  

Voter turnout surpassed the last election, with 45 percent of Ontarians casting ballots.  

New Government Mandate 

Cruising to victory with a rare 3rd consecutive majority, Ford has secured another four-year term. With a strong mandate from the people of Ontario, Ford will view these results as an explicit endorsement of his platform, which he laid out the details of earlier this week. Look for Ford to prioritize the following initiatives throughout the early stages of the new parliamentary session: 

  • Protecting Ontario from tariffs: Ford earmarked nearly $20 billion to combat the likely impact of these penalties on Ontario businesses. 
  • Removing interprovincial trade barriers: The PCs promised $50 million to a new Ontario Trade Together Fund supporting Ontario businesses’ ability to expand into other provinces. 
  • Supporting our security: They committed to prioritizing investments in defence spending and border security, speaking directly to Trump’s criticism of Canada’s contributions to NATO. 
  • Investing in Infrastructure: The Conservatives plan to add an additional $5 billion to the Building Ontario Fund to build more LTC homes, housing units and transportation infrastructure, potentially including Ford’s wildly controversial 401 tunnel. 
  • Hurrying up Hubs: Lastly, expect Ford to prioritize keeping his promise to open the province’s 27 new HART Hubs by April 1, 2025, his $530 million alternative to the Supervised Consumption Sits currently operating in the province. 

If you think all of this sounds like it costs a lot of money, that’s because it does. Ford’s platform calls for $40 billion in new government spending, leaving some to question the Premier’s promise to balance the budget by next fiscal year. Only time will tell if a new spending blitz will be enough to push back on incoming U.S. tariffs and keep Ford’s promise to protect Ontario. 

Official Opposition Platform 

NDP – More of the Same 

While they were hoping for a more decisive result, yesterday could have gone worse for the NDP. Ontario’s Dippers managed to hold on to all of their incumbents in the province’s Northern ridings, which the Conservatives heavily targeted. They also managed to keep most of their urban seats in the province held by an incumbent, only losing Toronto-St. Paul’s to the Liberals.  

Ironically, the NDP seemed to receive the same message as Ford’s victorious PCs from Ontario voters: more of the same, please. As the Official Opposition, the NDP now have a renewed mandate to hold the PCs to account, on cornerstone issues like healthcare, housing and affordability. 

However, one question remains: leadership. While Marit Stiles won her seat handily, she didn’t perform any better than previous NDP bosses, which could be grounds for dismissal if the party is ambitious. However, given the short election period and her party’s Opposition status, expect Stiles to be granted some leniency and stay on as party head until at least the next election. 

Liberals – Bonnie in Two? 

Despite campaigning on winning in one election, Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie moved her own goalposts for the snap election call. She had three things she needed to accomplish: 

  1. Win official party status (12 seats) 
  2. Move into official opposition 
  3. Win her seat 

Unfortunately for her, she only managed to accomplish one of the three, securing official party status, and all the benefits that come with it for her beleaguered party. Outside these goals, she failed to deliver seats in Mississauga and much of the vote-rich 905.  

Will party status be enough to keep the naysayers at bay, giving Crombie a second shot, or will the knives start to turn inward?  

Close Races, Fresh Faces 

While the legislature’s composition remains largely the same, this less-than-eventful election did bring us a few tight races and fresh faces. Here are the new talking heads we’ll be seeing in the next legislative session:  

  • EtobicokeLakeshore: Liberal’s Lee Fairclough picks up over PC’s Christine Hogarth.  
  • Hamilton Mountain: Monica Ciriello gains, marking the PC’s first victory in the riding since 1999. The riding was long held by NDP MPP Monique Taylor, who is looking to make her move into federal politics.  
  • Hamilton Centre: Robin Lennox (technically) reclaims the riding for the NDP. It was previously held by Sarah Jama, who sat as an independent after being ousted from the same party. 
  • Algoma—Manitoulin: PC’s Bill Rosenberg beats out independent incumbent Michael Mantha, who formerly sat with the NDP until 2023. The PC’s first victory in the riding since 1987.  
  • Toronto—St. Paul’s: Liberals reclaim historical stronghold. Former CP24 anchor Stephanie Smyth gains over prominent NDP incumbent Dr. Jill Andrew.  
  • Don Valley North: Liberal candidate Jonathan Tsao gains over PC’s Sue Liu. 
  • Ajax: Liberal’s Rob Cerjanec narrowly pulls from PC incumbent Patrice Barnes.  
  • Nepean: Liberal candidate Tyler Watt flips after longtime PC incumbent Lisa MacLeod announced her exit from provincial politics.  

Too close to call 

Politicos will still be watching out for local recounts and potential flips as counting continues. Here are the races where it may be too close to call: 

  • Burlington: PC incumbent Natalie Pierre leads over Liberals by 40 votes.  
  • Mississauga—Erin Mills: PC incumbent Sheref Sabawy leads over Liberals by 20 votes. 
  • York South—Weston: PC candidate Mohamed Firin leads over Liberals by 44 votes. 
  • Mushkegowuk—James Bay: NDP incumbent Guy Bourgouin leads over PCs by 4 votes.   

 

Have any questions about the Ontario election? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com 

Uncertainty: Alberta Braces for Choppy Economic Waters​

The first two months of 2025 have seen a shift in the global economic context, and governments have been forced to adapt. Last year was about responsibly building the province, this year it’s about confronting new challenges head-on.

Alberta remains one of the fastest-growing provinces in Canada, and that growth continues to put pressure on the services Albertans count on every day. New this year are the ongoing trade conflicts with the U.S., which threaten to put significant downward economic pressure on not just Alberta but the entire global economy.

The fiscal framework introduced in 2023 was meant to keep Alberta’s financial situation in check and the province’s spending within its means. Those guardrails allow for deviation in the event of extraordinary circumstances—and these are extraordinary circumstances.

For the first time in Premier Smith’s tenure, the Government of Alberta is forecasting a $5.2 billion deficit, which will be reduced over the next three years. The deficit results from a doubling of the Government’s fiscal contingency in response to global volatility, as well as a significant increase in government spending while revenue remains stagnant. Almost every department will see an increase in their budget, and spending on new capital projects has increased by more than $1 billion.

Budget 2025 is unchartered waters for a UCP government, but as Minister Horner said in his address, “we are in a difficult time.”

You can find our full analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.

Data breaches are on the rise – and Canadians expect their businesses to be prepared

In a polarized, digital first, and deeply interconnected economy and society, data breaches are on the rise from both a frequency and cost perspective. PwC’s 2025 Global Digital Trust Insights survey found that the average cost to an organization of a data breach has risen to $3.32 million per incident. Their increasing frequency has not resulted in increasing acceptance.

Canadians are more concerned, more alert, and more judgemental of the enterprises they interact with when it comes to protecting their data. Exclusive research from Navigator reveals that 85% of Canadians are worried about data breaches with 66% reporting increased concern compared to three years ago. For industries handling sensitive information, the concern level is even more acute.

Concern Around Data Breaches Per Industry

Growing concern is stacked on top of an absence of trust, with only 40% of respondents believing that businesses affected by breaches have adequately addressed customer concerns or resolved issues. Is this anxiety fueled by high-profile incidents such as the Canada Revenue Agency and Ticketmaster breaches? Likely in part.

But it’s amplified by some of the driving technological changes of the day – changes that are only intensifying.

  • Widespread adoption of artificial intelligence has struck a nerve, with 70% of Canadians expressing that the technology poses a greater risk compared to just 39% who see it as a valuable tool for preventing breaches.
  • Concern over state-sponsored threats is growing with 71% of Canadians believing that state-sponsored cyber threats will increase over the next five years and 65% expressing concern that Canadian entities are vulnerable to such breaches.
  • The rise of ransomware extortion poses complex legal, ethical, and financial questions. While the Government of Canada does not recommend ransom payments, 77% of Canadians agree that it is important to pay ransom (when applicable) to prevent or limit the spread of customer information.

Forging a Path Forward

Despite these challenges, every business has the opportunity to do right by doing right, showcasing to their customers, employees and stakeholders that they have responded swiftly, with transparency and speed. Specifically:

  • 93% of Canadians emphasized the importance of enhancing security measures, including implementing new systems, conducting staff training, and reviewing policies.
  • 92% believe businesses should offer free credit monitoring and conduct a thorough, transparent investigation.
  • 92% highlighted the importance of notifying clients immediately.

While every scenario brings its own qualities, we remind Canadian organizations to use the following principles in preparation for and response to a breach.

  1. Speed beats perfection, preparation enhances speed: As soon as you are aware of a breach, the clock is ticking on your first notification to affected stakeholders. Timely transparency is critical to maintaining trust. Simple and cost-effective preparatory steps can go a long way in building out your crisis and cyber response capabilities.
  2. Lead from the front: Activate an integrated crisis response team led by a decisive C-suite leader. Streamline communications by appointing a single spokesperson to manage messaging and maintain consistency.
  3. Develop, practice and implement a crisis management framework: It’s not a question of if, but when. Prepare for the inevitable with a tailored, practiced crisis communications plan, cyber incident response plan and business continuity plan that leaves guesswork at the door when a breach occurs. Regular exercising of these plans is critical.
  4. Engage with Key Stakeholders: Communicate proactively with employees, customers, partners, and regulators. Trust is rebuilt when stakeholders are at the heart of decision-making.
  5. Provide tangible support to affected customers: Canadians need to see you work to protect their data. Free credit monitoring, identity theft protection, or the establishment of a dedicated hotline can showcase your commitment to customers and their recovery, reinforcing your organization’s accountability.
  6. Find and communicate remedial steps: Take immediate action to strengthen your defences. Upgrading systems, conducting audits, and training employees sends a clear message: your organization is serious about preventing future breaches.
  7. Leverage external experts: Bring in trusted professionals, like Navigator, PwC, and a legal breach coach to validate your response. Highlighting external expertise reassures stakeholders and demonstrates your commitment to professional recovery.
  8. Monitor and manage public sentiment: Track media and social sentiment to gauge public reactions. Use these insights to refine your messaging, ensuring it is empathetic, nuanced, and aligned with stakeholder expectations.
  9. Share lessons learned: Be transparent about how you addressed the breach and what improvements have been made. Sharing lessons learned demonstrates accountability and positions your organization as a leader in trust recovery.
  10. Conduct a post-crisis response and reputation audit: Evaluate your response, stakeholder sentiment, and reputational risks. Use these insights to refine strategies, rebuild trust, and strengthen your crisis management framework.

Want to learn more?

Looking to gain deeper insights and better understand how to prepare your organization to effectively respond to and recover from a data breach? Connect with one of our experts today. Book a consultation by contacting us at info@navltd.com or ca_incident_response@pwc.com

Download a copy of the research summary below:

Saskatchewan Provincial Election

The Saskatchewan Party (Sask Party) made history on October 28, 2024, becoming Canada’s longest-serving provincial government by winning a record fifth term. While voters ultimately demonstrated continued trust in Moe’s leadership, seeking solutions for health-care capacity, improvements to the education system, and relief from affordability challenges, the NDP made significant gains, nearly doubling their seat count from 14 in the 2020 election.

Backed by Rural Strongholds: Sask Party Wins Record Fifth Term

As of Tuesday morning, the Sask Party won 32 of 61 seats in the Legislature (with leads in three more), down from the 48 seats they won in 2020. Upstart right-wing parties like the Saskatchewan United Party (SUP) didn’t dent rural support enough to cause a problem for Moe’s Sask Party but the party did sustain significant losses in urban areas, particularly in Regina where it appears they failed to win a single seat, as of the time of writing. This urban divide was also evident in the popular vote: the Sask Party captured 65 per cent in rural regions but only about 40 per cent in both Regina and Saskatoon, trailing the NDP’s 55 per cent and 57 per cent, respectively.

Moe seemed to acknowledge this issue Monday, adopting a cooperative tone in his victory speech. He referenced potential perceptions of a divided province but emphasized that, regardless of how they voted, Saskatchewanians cast their ballots with the province’s best interests in mind. We expect the NDP to highlight this looming division given there will be very few urban voices in cabinet, in a province where most of the population lives in cities. Moving forward, we’ll be watching how the Sask Party navigates urban voters and their priorities.

The preliminary seat count stands at:

  • Saskatchewan Party: 32 (leading in 3)
  • NDP: 22 (leading in 4)

Key Battlegrounds That Carried the Day

As late as Saturday, October 26, polling showed both parties in a near deadlock. Despite significant changes to Saskatchewan’s electoral map, the NDP proved unsuccessful in breaking the rural wall. Urban voters were a different story. The results in key ridings led to the loss of five Sask Party ministers’ seats:

  • Justice Minister and Attorney General Bronwyn Eyre lost her seat in Saskatoon Stonebridge, where the NDP’s Darcy Warrington won with 53.8 per cent of the vote.
  • Parks, Culture and Sport Minister Laura Ross lost her seat in Regina Roachdale. A Sask Party MLA since 2007, Ross was defeated by the NDP’s Joan Pratchler, who won with 52.6 per cent of the vote.
  • In a close race, Environment Minister Christine Tell may lose her seat in Regina Wascana Plains to the NDP’s Brent Blakely by just 4 per cent. The result may have been influenced by SUP candidate Dustin Plett, who currently holds 4.5 per cent of the vote.
  • Social Services Minister Gene Makowsky lost his Regina University seat to the NDP’s Sally Housser, who won with 51 per cent of the vote.
  • Minister of Corrections, Policing and Public Safety Paul Merriman may lose his seat in Saskatoon Silverspring-Sutherland to the NDP’s Hugh Gordon in a tight race, currently trailing by 3.3 per cent.

A Change Election? Yes and No

In an innovative approach to the 2024 provincial election, Elections Saskatchewan introduced “voting week” for the first time, with polls open the week prior to election day. As a result, and in keeping with trends in other provinces, Saskatchewan Elections reported that 273,010 people cast early ballots, with nearly 35,000 more votes cast during the first 48 hours of advanced polling than in the 2020 provincial election.

Elections Saskatchewan reported early Tuesday morning that just under 53 per cent of those eligible to cast a ballot did so, showing no uptick from 2020 and a decrease in voter turnout from 2016. According to Navigator’s research, advance turn-out is increasingly a function of convenience for voters, rather than a strong desire to seek change. Parties, particularly the Sask Party, would do well to acknowledge that voters in at least Regina and Saskatoon were looking for change and the party will have a strong opposition to contend with in the next four years.

A Fearsome Opposition Forms

Nearly doubling their previous seat count of 14 by winning over 10 new seats in the Legislature, the Saskatchewan NDP will gain a significantly larger caucus budget. This boost could pose challenges for the Sask Party, as the NDP will now be able to hire more staff and allocate more resources toward research. If they strategically leverage these advantages, they could mount a robust opposition over the next four years, establishing themselves as a formidable opponent in the next provincial election.

Cabinet Potential

Scott Moe is expected to announce a new cabinet in mid-November. Four high profile cabinet ministers announced their retirements before the election, and five additional ministers are projected to lose their seats, meaning that while many familiar faces are likely to remain and be in line for a promotion to the coveted job at Finance in particular, the appointment of newcomers to the cabinet table will be necessary.

Incumbent MLAs to watch as Moe decides his next cabinet include:

  • Warren Keading (Melville-Saltcoats)
  • Colleen Young (Lloydminster)
  • Terry Jenson (Warman)
  • Travis Keisig (Last Mountain-Touchwood)
  • Alana Ross (Prince Albert Northcote)

As the government ramps back up, we can expect a short legislative session kicked off by a throne speech ahead of the holidays.

Have any questions about the Saskatchewan Election? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.