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The Saskatchewan Party (Sask Party) made history on October 28, 2024, becoming Canada’s longest-serving provincial government by winning a record fifth term. While voters ultimately demonstrated continued trust in Moe’s leadership, seeking solutions for health-care capacity, improvements to the education system, and relief from affordability challenges, the NDP made significant gains, nearly doubling their seat count from 14 in the 2020 election.

Backed by Rural Strongholds: Sask Party Wins Record Fifth Term

As of Tuesday morning, the Sask Party won 32 of 61 seats in the Legislature (with leads in three more), down from the 48 seats they won in 2020. Upstart right-wing parties like the Saskatchewan United Party (SUP) didn’t dent rural support enough to cause a problem for Moe’s Sask Party but the party did sustain significant losses in urban areas, particularly in Regina where it appears they failed to win a single seat, as of the time of writing. This urban divide was also evident in the popular vote: the Sask Party captured 65 per cent in rural regions but only about 40 per cent in both Regina and Saskatoon, trailing the NDP’s 55 per cent and 57 per cent, respectively.

Moe seemed to acknowledge this issue Monday, adopting a cooperative tone in his victory speech. He referenced potential perceptions of a divided province but emphasized that, regardless of how they voted, Saskatchewanians cast their ballots with the province’s best interests in mind. We expect the NDP to highlight this looming division given there will be very few urban voices in cabinet, in a province where most of the population lives in cities. Moving forward, we’ll be watching how the Sask Party navigates urban voters and their priorities.

The preliminary seat count stands at:

• Saskatchewan Party: 32 (leading in 3)
• NDP: 22 (leading in 4)

Key Battlegrounds That Carried the Day

As late as Saturday, October 26, polling showed both parties in a near deadlock. Despite significant changes to Saskatchewan’s electoral map, the NDP proved unsuccessful in breaking the rural wall. Urban voters were a different story. The results in key ridings led to the loss of five Sask Party ministers’ seats:

• Justice Minister and Attorney General Bronwyn Eyre lost her seat in Saskatoon Stonebridge, where the NDP’s Darcy Warrington won with 53.8 per cent of the vote.
• Parks, Culture and Sport Minister Laura Ross lost her seat in Regina Roachdale. A Sask Party MLA since 2007, Ross was defeated by the NDP’s Joan Pratchler, who won with 52.6 per cent of the vote.
• In a close race, Environment Minister Christine Tell may lose her seat in Regina Wascana Plains to the NDP’s Brent Blakely by just 4 per cent. The result may have been influenced by SUP candidate Dustin Plett, who currently holds 4.5 per cent of the vote.
• Social Services Minister Gene Makowsky lost his Regina University seat to the NDP’s Sally Housser, who won with 51 per cent of the vote.
• Minister of Corrections, Policing and Public Safety Paul Merriman may lose his seat in Saskatoon Silverspring-Sutherland to the NDP’s Hugh Gordon in a tight race, currently trailing by 3.3 per cent.

A Change Election? Yes and No

In an innovative approach to the 2024 provincial election, Elections Saskatchewan introduced “voting week” for the first time, with polls open the week prior to election day. As a result, and in keeping with trends in other provinces, Saskatchewan Elections reported that 273,010 people cast early ballots, with nearly 35,000 more votes cast during the first 48 hours of advanced polling than in the 2020 provincial election.

Elections Saskatchewan reported early Tuesday morning that just under 53 per cent of those eligible to cast a ballot did so, showing no uptick from 2020 and a decrease in voter turnout from 2016. According to Navigator’s research, advance turn-out is increasingly a function of convenience for voters, rather than a strong desire to seek change. Parties, particularly the Sask Party, would do well to acknowledge that voters in at least Regina and Saskatoon were looking for change and the party will have a strong opposition to contend with in the next four years.

A Fearsome Opposition Forms

Nearly doubling their previous seat count of 14 by winning over 10 new seats in the Legislature, the Saskatchewan NDP will gain a significantly larger caucus budget. This boost could pose challenges for the Sask Party, as the NDP will now be able to hire more staff and allocate more resources toward research. If they strategically leverage these advantages, they could mount a robust opposition over the next four years, establishing themselves as a formidable opponent in the next provincial election.

Cabinet Potential

Scott Moe is expected to announce a new cabinet in mid-November. Four high profile cabinet ministers announced their retirements before the election, and five additional ministers are projected to lose their seats, meaning that while many familiar faces are likely to remain and be in line for a promotion to the coveted job at Finance in particular, the appointment of newcomers to the cabinet table will be necessary.

Incumbent MLAs to watch as Moe decides his next cabinet include:

• Warren Keading (Melville-Saltcoats)
• Colleen Young (Lloydminster)
• Terry Jenson (Warman)
• Travis Keisig (Last Mountain-Touchwood)
• Alana Ross (Prince Albert Northcote)

As the government ramps back up, we can expect a short legislative session kicked off by a throne speech ahead of the holidays.

Have any questions about the Saskatchewan Election? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.

The 2024 British Columbia election on October 19 confirmed the province is firmly divided, with no clear winner emerging between David Eby’s NDP or John Rustad’s upstart Conservatives. Nearly half the electorate voted Conservative for the first time in generations, while the other half backed the NDP. Remarkably, the Greens, with just two MLAs and no official leader, emerged as the most powerful brokers in forming the next government.

Deadlock Between NDP and Conservatives as Province Awaits Vote Count

Amid a torrential rainstorm that caused flash flooding in the lower mainland, Saturday’s election upheld the province’s reputation for political drama. After seven years in power, the NDP suffered a stunning blow by the Conservative Party, which last ran a full slate of candidates in 1960. Independents split the vote in at least two ridings, paving the way for the NDP candidates to win those seats. The Green Party retained official status, but its leader Sonia Furstenau lost her seat to the NDP after switching ridings. The NDP and Conservatives both fall narrowly short of the 47 seats needed to form a majority in the 93-seat legislature:

• NDP: 46 seats
• Conservatives: 45 seats
• Greens: 2 seats

Key Ridings to Watch

Margins were razor-thin in numerous constituencies with at least 11 ridings too close for media to call. The NDP led in six, while the Conservatives held the lead in five. Two automatic recounts are already set, with petitions likely to trigger more, particularly in three closely contested ridings where the Conservatives narrowly lost. While recounts seldom have a material effect on election results, this election might be the exception, despite use of electronic tabulators to initially count ballots. Ridings of note:

• Surrey City Centre and Juan de Fuca-Malahat: The NDP leads by fewer than 100 votes (96 and 23 votes respectively), triggering automatic recounts due by Oct. 28.
• Kelowna Centre: The Conservatives hold a slim lead of just 142 votes, making a recount likely.
• Coquitlam-Burke Mountain: The NDP leads by 268 votes, likely also leading to a recount.

Uncertain Path Forward as Parties Scramble for Majority

The landscape remains highly uncertain, and neither leader delivered a concession speech Saturday night. Expect lots of jockeying, courting and wheeling and dealing as the counting takes place over the next eight days. One party has to secure enough votes to form a government, and/or a supply-confidence deal with the Greens to provide stability to govern.

For now, the NDP will continue to serve as the caretaker government until the formation of a new government. It could take weeks as negotiations unfold.

NDP (46 Seats): Retain Power Through Key Alliances

As the incumbent, the NDP has several paths:

1. Negotiate with the Greens: Likely their best option, similar to their 2017 deal, but the Greens will demand major policy concessions, especially on climate issues.
2. Secure a Speaker: They could stabilize their position by getting the Speaker role.
3. Cross-party support: Though unlikely, they could try to convince opposition members to switch sides.

Conservative Party (45 Seats): New Contender with Limited Options

The Conservatives’ path is more difficult but not impossible:

1. Recounts: The party will push for recounts in close ridings, which could shift the balance.
2. Challenge NDP’s right to govern: Expect Rustad to fight hard, opposing NDP attempts at forming a government.
3. Negotiate with Greens: Unlikely due to policy clashes, but desperation may prompt concessions.

Green Party (2 Seats): Kingmaker in a Tight Race

The Greens two MLAs hold the balance of power. They could:

1. Support the NDP: More ideologically aligned, they could back the NDP in exchange for policy wins.
2. Support the Conservatives: This would be challenging due to policy conflicts, particularly on climate.
3. Remain neutral: The Greens could stay independent, keeping leverage over key votes of confidence that could bring down any government.

Cabinet Potential

While awaiting the Greens’ decision, key leaders and potential cabinet picks to watch for are:

NDP to Watch

When the writ was dropped, 25 per cent of NDP cabinet ministers chose not to seek re-election. Of those who ran, all but three were re-elected and will likely play key roles if the NDP forms government. Ones to watch include:

• Mike Farnworth (Public Safety and Solicitor General)
• Adrian Dix (Health)
• Josie Osborne (Energy)
• Grace Lore (Children and Family Services)
• Bowinn Ma (Emergency Management and Climate Readiness)
• George Chow (Citizens’ Services)
• Ravi Kahlon (Housing)
• Jennifer Whiteside (Mental Health and Addictions)
• Brenda Bailey (Jobs and Economic Development)
• Anne Kang (Municipal Affairs)
• Lisa Beare (Post-Secondary Education)

Conservatives To Watch

The only incumbents on the Conservative side are former BC United/Liberal MLAs with cabinet-minister experience. These few have potential to be leaders within the party under Rustad, including:

• Elenore Sturko, Surrey-Cloverdale
• Bruce Banman, Abbotsford-South (Shadow Minister Emergency Management, Climate Readiness and Citizens’ Services)
• Gavin Dew, Kelowna-Mission (Ran for BC Liberal Leadership in 2022)
• Lorne Doerkson, Cariboo-Chilcotin (Defected to Tories and served as Third-Party Caucus Chair)
• A’aliya Warbus, Chilliwack-Cultus (star candidate and daughter of former BC Lieutenant-Governor Steven Point)

Record-Breaking Advanced Voter Turnout

Amidst the uncertainty, one thing that’s for sure is the high level of public and voter engagement in following the results. More than one million people, or 28 per cent of registered voters, set a record at the advanced polls. It was also the first time the province used a new electronic voting system. Overall turnout reached just over 57 per cent, showing an improvement from the 54 per cent in 2020, though still lower than the 61 per cent seen in 2017.

Have any questions about the BC Election? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.

Chrystia Freeland’s fourth budget is less a fiscal plan than a political manifesto. She’s chosen again to spend in areas where the Liberals understand they are politically vulnerable while raising taxes on those who will cost them the fewest votes in the next election.

The finance minister and others in cabinet have been rolling out in a steady stream of new spending initiatives since Easter, $53 billion in total for housing, school food programs, a national disability benefit and other measures.

The goal is clear. The Liberals want to convince Millennial and Gen Z voters that they will help make life more affordable.

The flip side is that Freeland had to raise taxes to pay for these promises and to remain inside her fiscal guardrails – keeping the deficit at or below $40.1 billion while lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio this year and into the future.

The cost, according to many economists, is that there’s little in the budget to address Canada’s growing productivity gap with other industrialized nations, a gap the OECD projects will continue in the decades ahead threatening Canadians’ standard of living.

But the future for the Liberals is now with an election at most 18 months away. They need this spending to shore up support among younger voters, the ones who helped them win the past three elections, and to retain the support of their junior partners, the NDP.

The budget title sums up the theme, “Fairness for Every Generation.”

Fairness in this budget means higher taxes of more than $20 billion to be borne by a select group of mostly older Canadians.

Freeland is raising the capital gains inclusion rate from 50 per cent to 66 per cent for individuals, corporations and trusts reporting more than $250,000 in capital gains. The government says the change will affect only the wealthiest 0.13 per cent of Canadians.

No surprise there. A Navigator Discover poll conducted from March 26 to April 1 of 1,500 adults found the vast majority of respondents – 78 per cent – support taxing the ultra-wealthy.

The same poll suggested 85 per cent of respondents across age groups, regions and genders listed the high cost of living as the most important issue for government to address. When asked who was most to blame, they identified corporate greed and Justin Trudeau as the top two culprits.

One of those two is easier to blame than the other. Cue higher taxes on the wealthiest few. Spend billions on the young and the politically restless.

You can find our full analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.

The province is returning to a nearly double-digit deficit of $9.8 billion from a reported surplus in its Q3 finances, the largest since Kathleen Wynne’s election year budget in 2018. The Ford government is hoping to pull out all the stops to grow Ontario’s economy through targeted investments in infrastructure, housing, and skills training, all while keeping costs down for Ontarians.

To explain the red ink, the Ford government is pointing the finger at a host of factors – inflation, interest rates, and $6 billion in desperately needed payments to the broader public sector due to the court’s ruling against the PCs’ Bill 124 public sector wage constraint legislation.

Central to the government’s plan to stay on course are massive investments in infrastructure. With over $190 billion set aside over the next 10 years (an increase of roughly $6 billion since last year’s plan), the government continues to prioritize new builds and redevelopments in the health and long-term care, housing, and public transportation sectors.

As high interest rates persist and the global economy prepares to weather more headwinds, Ontario’s deficit is expected to triple in the short term. The PCs continue to stick to “third road” fiscal planning – no new taxes, no deep cuts, balancing the budget through growth – but will that be enough?

You can find our full analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.