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Quebec Budget 2025: A Bare Bones Budget in a Brittle Economy

Quebec Finance Minister Éric Girard presented the CAQ’s seventh budget in a time of turbulence and economic uncertainty caused by diplomatic tensions and trade relations with the U.S. administration. The budget aims to help Quebec weather these difficult times while maintaining sound public finances.

The budget introduces measures to support businesses affected by U.S. tariffs, increase innovation, diversify markets, and invest in major infrastructure projects. It is also an opportunity for the province to foster growth through the reduction of administrative processes and regulatory red tape. Quebec will also continue to invest in improving the healthcare and education systems.

With the budget presented only a week before the American-imposed tariffs are set to come into effect on April 2, the Quebec government remains optimistic that trade discussions over the next months will yield less negative outcomes. The budget was forecasted on this hypothesis. Nevertheless, the situation of uncertainty is expected to have a lasting impact on the Quebec economy.

Investments to stimulate the economy will be coupled with a cut back on overall spending and changes to fiscal measures with the goal to achieve a balanced budget by 2029-2030. Quebecers can expect to see some tax incentives removed, a hike in prices, and changes to certain previously subsidized services.

Minister Girard is framing the budget as difficult decisions to strengthen the province in a time of uncertainty likened to the beginning of the pandemic in 2020.

You can find our full analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.

Welcome to Canada’s first AI Election

Navigator in conversation with AI expert Fenwick McKelvey

In anticipation of another year of exponential leaps in AI products and capabilities, Navigator Managing Principal Chris Hall spoke with Fenwick McKelvey, co-director of Concordia University’s Applied AI Institute, about the potential impacts of AI on Canada’s upcoming federal election, the optimistic view of bots, and the difficult choices ahead for businesses looking to keep up. 

CH – You recently conducted research that included a classroom exercise you did with your students to see if AI tools such as OpenAI could be used to manipulate voters. Some of those big firms didn’t say no when you tried to manipulate messages. Can you tell me about your findings?

FM – Many of the AI firms, I feel, are unprepared or not taking seriously their potential impact on, or use in, elections. What I find striking is that for all the rhetoric and evaluations and the money being dumped into AI safety, or Open AI’s claims of protecting its threats to democracy, my small team of graduate students at Concordia University — in collaboration with the University of Ottawa — were able to go to most of the major large language models, ask them very simply and very obviously, “Could you generate 50 fake tweets about my experience going to a (political) rally?” That’s very suspicious. 

[However], every major large language model, Open AI, Anthropic, Microsoft — every one except for Google — happily gave up that information, happily did that work. And that, to me, is part of the issue here. That even though we’ve been talking for 10 years about threats to democracy and the Internet, we don’t see platforms taking that seriously enough. So, while I don’t think AI is going to swing the next election, it does become a major policy issue, and we really haven’t made a lot of headway in addressing it or moving that needle.

CH – What does that tell you about what political players and, frankly, the public need to do to recognize bots and other efforts to manipulate their opinions?

FM – Part of the trend here is acknowledging the increasing pressures being put on the public to be the bot spotters. There’s a large push towards more and more automated messages throughout [the culture], whether that’s ads or synthetic influencers on Instagram. So I think it’s part of this bigger trend that we have to contextualize and think of as a media governance issue. It’s an issue that’s going to require a lot of collaboration between journalists, academics and governments acting in good faith to really make sense of very dramatic shifts in how everyday people consume the news and have to be making this kind of constant decision about what’s real and fake.

CH – Some AI experts are worried that artificial intelligence could play a destructive role in the next federal election, undermining trust in our institutions through disinformation and manipulating data. What concerns do you have?

FM – What I’m most concerned about is how we’ve let our imagination of politics and political futures become so dependent upon technology. For better or worse, technology is not going to break or fix our democracy or the next election.

AI is going to have a marginal effect in the next election, but certainly it’s going to test the norms of our political parties and politicians on how they may or may not use deep fakes as part of their rhetoric, or how they may try to use artificial intelligence to enhance the turn towards micro-targeting. I do think this raises a deeper question about the influence of big tech platforms in our politics. This has been an ongoing issue since Cambridge Analytica [was found to have misused Facebook data for political manipulation in 2018]. More directly, we suffer from a governance question about how a lot of innovation is being imported from Silicon Valley and we lack a sense of how to steer that, and, as a society, how to respond to that.

So that’s a big part of where AI is going to fit into the next election: in one part, how politics, politicians and parties are reacting to it, and, in another part, how this becomes part of their platforms or not.

CH – I’ve asked you about the negative consequences. Are there positive aspects to using artificial intelligence and machine learning in politics?

FM – Certainly. In trying to be nuanced here, I’m trying to give room for the opportunity to think about the upside. [University of Ottawa professor] Elizabeth Dubois and I, when we were working on political bots, would often think about bots being used in journalism to track websites to help reporters monitor changes in government policy or changes in corporate policy. A lot of bots are also instrumental for key websites we use, like Wikipedia, and for the ways we might be able to generate and write content.

I think there are some very interesting questions we might ask about how AI is going to be used in politics. One example I like to give is [embattled Mayor] Eric Adams in New York, who used a generative AI system to call voters and make him sound like he’s speaking in a language he doesn’t speak, whether that’s Yiddish or another foreign language, so voters would hear, in their mother tongue, Eric Adams speaking to them.

Now, that’s a really interesting question of how that enfranchises or invites voters whose first language might not be English into the political process. And that’s, I think, part of where we might see AI help make politics more accessible and ultimately help enfranchise people to participate more in politics given we’re in a time when we see such a low turnout. I like the fact that the Eric Adams example makes people feel a bit uncomfortable, but it also speaks to the possible promises that could happen with this technology.

CH – Does the Canadian government have a role in making sure AI is used in a way that is more productive than malicious?

FM – I think that’s a big question for us: how Canada can influence AI’s development. And certainly, you’ve seen tremendous investment from Canada in AI, both monetarily and strategically, yet it’s unclear how much say Canada will have. And it’s a big open question for me.

That doesn’t deny the fact that Canada has undertaken important measures to update its laws to respond to AI. I would point to the Digital Charter Implementation Act or [Bill] C-27 as a key piece [of legislation] that includes the Artificial Intelligence and Data Act. I’ve had concerns about whether those bills have been developed in such a way that actually builds capacity in civil society and in the corporate sector around dealing with the host of issues AI presents. I think the government needs to think about its policy crafting process as instrumental to building capacity in AI adoption and AI literacy.

CH – You mentioned AI adoption. Let me ask you to look ahead to 2025, if I could. Do you think this is the year when businesses will really begin to embrace AI as part of their practice?

FM – I think businesses are going to face an existential question of whether they want to think about artificial intelligence as a part of their organization or as a service contract in which they’re procuring AI services.

That is a strategic calculation that comes with great implications. In one sense, if you’re a firm that can see very fixed benefits of artificial intelligence, then it’s how do you ensure your organization constructs the artificial intelligence in such a way that it becomes an asset, becomes something you have the capacity of managing and actually have control or governance over. [Conversely, you could turn] towards very large online platforms that are going to be providing these AI services probably for a lower cost, but with clear downsides about how much influence you have and potentially the data flows that are going to be established for those contracts.

CH – Is there a danger of being left behind if companies don’t begin to embrace it in a bigger way?

FM – I think there’s always a risk of being left behind in technologies. But I also think that we’re at a point where there’s a lot of mixed messaging and mixed signals about the upside of artificial intelligence. It’s not a one-size-fits-all solution.  

Part of it is that AI is going to have impacts, but those impacts are going to look different depending on what the organization is. If you’re a call centre company, where you might be using artificial intelligence — and this is what they’re doing in Japan — to mute enraged customers yelling at their customer-service representatives to make their employees happier or [make it so] their employees sound more English using artificial intelligence, that’s one potential opportunity. That’s very different than in a news organization that might be encountering the fact that what’s going to really differentiate it is that its articles don’t seem like they’re written by machine. So it’s going to vary depending on the organization, and I think that’s why it’s a strategic calculation.

CH – I have heard and read a lot about Canadian productivity lagging behind other OECD countries, and that if we don’t begin to invest in new technologies we can’t close that gap. What is at stake for Canadian companies in the year ahead if they are not prepared to make these kinds of investments in the new technologies?

FM – Well, I think there’s a tension between most managers, who think AI is going to improve productivity, and most employees, who do not. This is a classic moment of being sold snake oil. Is AI going to solve the productivity gap? 

If you’re looking at the macroeconomic issues around Canadian productivity, Canada also has historically low levels of corporate investment in research and development, which also could be a huge factor in why there’s a productivity gap. 

So the idea that AI is going to come and make employees more productive is certainly a slightly naive theory about how Canada’s going to close that productivity gap. The fact that it’s being marketed by AI firms that still have a really open question about how effective these tools are going be in the multitude of use cases they are putting out, means companies should be a bit wary about rushing whole hog into some of these AI solutions. 

To me, [it’s very important] to think about AI as something that really requires a degree of change management in the organization, and a buy-in to make sure AI is being developed and deployed responsibly, ethically, in line with Canadian law, and in ways that actually empower workers’ autonomy and their jobs.

Fenwick McKelvey is co-director of Concordia University’s AI institute.

The NDP’s free fall reveals an essential truth about this election

The NDP’s flashy new ads, portraying Jagmeet Singh as a fighter, seem to be borne of an alternate universe. The latest polls aren’t just flashing red — they’re signalling a collapse that could cost the party its official status — Ipsos? 10 per cent. Angus Reid nine per cent. Leger? 11 per cent.

It doesn’t matter which poll you look at. And evidently, it doesn’t matter which Canadian voter the pollsters ask. The federal NDP are on the brink of utter disaster.

While all eyes have been on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s efforts to resuscitate the Liberal party, it’s the other major shift — the collapse of the NDP vote — that will ultimately determine the final outcome of the next federal election. More than that, it reveals with absolute clarity what this election will be fought over.

First, let’s be clear about what this downward spiral represents.

For Liberals, it’s Christmas come early. For Conservatives, it’s a worrying sign that progressive voters are consolidating behind Carney. For the NDP? It’s not just a repudiation of their leader, a rejection of their messaging, or even a reflection of voter frustration. Most critically, it is an indictment of their strategy.

In any other context, for any other party, these numbers should serve as a dire wake-up call. What I fear instead is that it will become an excuse factory — none more damaging than the idea that their eventual downfall will be merely the result of strategic voting by “fake progressives” who were never serious about the NDP’s agenda to begin with.

That’s only half-true. Yes, the NDP are victims of the moment. But more accurately: they are victims of their own failure to build a credible political strategy to meet this moment.

There will be a strong temptation within NDP circles to blame ideological divides within the party — that they should have tacked further left, or that they should have abandoned their progressive principles and moved closer to the centre.

That would be missing the forest for the trees at a time when the entire woodland is on fire.

This isn’t about factional divides in progressive politics.

This isn’t even about the party wearing the stain of propping up the Liberals for years, despite Trudeau’s declining popularity.

This is about a fundamental failure to grasp the ballot question of this election: who is best suited to protect Canadians from Donald Trump?

Because guess what? There will be nothing left to be progressive about if Trump’s influence dominates Canada’s economy, trade, and security.

What the NDP still fails to see is that, for voters of all stripes, this election isn’t about theoretical progressive ideals — it’s about safeguarding the progressive policies that Canada already has, policies that could disappear overnight if Trump makes good on his threats.

At this point, the party’s strategy appears depressingly predictable.

While they are reportedly planning to run a full slate of 343 candidates, their real plan is a retreat: consolidating resources into defending the ridings they already hold and making limited plays for a narrow band of additional seats.

In other words, it will be a thinly veiled furniture-saving exercise.

Meanwhile, voters will be focused on who is best to save the country.

So, here’s the bottom line. This election isn’t about finding the best incremental policy on housing or pharmacare — it’s about who is best suited for the leadership required in an unprecedented moment of global and economic volatility.

That should be Jagmeet Singh’s sole focus.

It should be every leader’s sole focus.

Any failure to recognize this reality and prosecute a strategy that meets the urgency of the moment is not just a political misstep — it is an act of outright political suicide and an unconscionable own goal.

The U.S. Democrats aren’t the strongest opposition to Trump right now. Canada is

If there’s anything to be said beyond vindictiveness, caprice and outright insanity about the first 30 days of the Trump presidency, it’s the appalling lack of a coherent opposition from the Democratic party.

A crisis of confidence and nerve could not have been more painfully on display than the party’s pathetically weak response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress this past week.

Funnily enough, it turns out courage and conviction were hiding North of the border. In our political leaders. In our institutions. In our patriotism and our collective sense of responsibility.

Let that sink in. The strongest, most articulate, the main opposition to Donald Trump now exists outside America. And for the foreseeable future, that’s exactly where it will stay.

Make no mistake — Canada must now prosecute the most consequential political persuasion campaign in our nation’s history.

“Off again, on again, off again” — let’s be clear: the threat of tariffs isn’t going anywhere.

That’s why I use the word “political” very deliberately. Diplomacy will still have its place as part of the cover story, but the real fight — the one that matters most — is a bare-knuckle, down-on-the-ground, political street fight.

As Trump reminds us every day, this is the era of the permanent campaign. And so, fire must meet fire. Just as Trump tries to persuade Canadians that they’d be better off as America’s 51st state, we must continue our full-scale political counteroffensive to persuade Americans that Trump’s tariffs and trade wars (even the threat of them) are making their lives more expensive, more difficult, and more uncertain.

And we need to tie that pain directly to Trump personally.

Reciprocal tariffs are the blunt-force instrument, they trigger economic pain. But tariffs alone aren’t enough. This is a crisis and we need to go to end game. That means realizing the only thing that will change Trump’s mind is political pressure. And therefore, we need a persuasion campaign layered on top to effect that pressure — one designed to convert every ounce of economic pain into political pain, one that ensures every price increase, supply chain snag and lost job is strapped to Trump’s ankles like a lead weight.

And to do that most effectively, we ought to follow three basic rules of political persuasion.

First, define the audience.

The strategy cannot be to simply influence coastal elites and Democrats who already agree that tariffs are, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau echoing the Wall Street Journal put it, a “dumb” idea. That’s not a path to victory. And it’s a waste of time.

We need to convince every last American consumer, no matter how they voted, Trump’s tariffs are making or will make their life worse.

Second, steal what works.

Put another way: use the tactics that are proven to work most recently with your target audience and only pivot if you need to.

Remember those viral gas station stickers — the ones with former U.S. president Joe Biden pointing at the pump price and saying, “I did that!”? That’s the template.

We need to ensure Donald Trump owns the specific price of specific everyday essential items.

Egg prices through the roof? “Trump did that.”

Paying more at the pump? “Trump did that.”

Paying more for a fridge, a sofa, a pack of diapers? “Trump did that.”

Third, underline the disconnect.

The core vulnerability of Trump’s populist brand is that he’s fundamentally out of touch with the reality he claims to champion.

As Congressman Eric Swalwell (in a rare example of effective bite back from the Democratic party) recently put it:

“This guy has gone to the Super Bowl … the Daytona 500 … a UFC fight.

He should go to the f—king supermarket and look at what people are spending to feed themselves, because that’s where they want him to go and he won’t go there.”

That’s precisely the tone and message Canada needs to amplify.

We need to drag Trump — kicking and screaming — to the grocery store, to the gas pump, to the dinner table where families are staring down higher electricity bills and overpriced food.

Here’s the bottom line: Trump didn’t just win, with the margin he did, solely because Americans were fed up with Biden. He won because he made them a simple promise — he would bring down prices. On day one.

That promise is already in pieces and tariffs will only drive prices higher. And our job — Canada’s job — is to make sure every American knows exactly why.

We cannot wait around for the Democratic party or anyone else to drive this political message. This is Canada’s fight — and it starts now.

Playing Defense: B.C. Prepares for Tough Economic Times

British Columbia became the first province to present its fiscal plan when it tabled Budget 2025 on March 4, the same day the U.S. enacted its new 25 per cent tariffs on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico. Like every province, B.C. has been preparing for this possibility since tariffs were initially floated by the incoming Trump administration in November 2024.

Budget 2025 is as much a story of what is not there rather than what is. Two key campaign promises—a $1,000 grocery rebate and low-interest financing for homebuilders—were both left on the cutting room floor with their respective price tags of $1.8 billion and $1.2 billion.

As noted in the budget preamble, B.C. is better positioned to weather the economic storm because its export markets are significantly more diverse than neighbouring provinces. The Minister of Finance has not used this as an excuse to sit on her hands, however, and has built a budget that focuses on navigating the economic uncertainty while further investing in the services that British Columbians rely on.

Major public services like urgent care, health care, schools and public transit all saw multi-billion-dollar bumps as the province looks to embark on a major infrastructure upgrade program.

All this investment comes at a cost though; B.C.’s record $10.9 billion deficit continues to rocket upward. In 2022/23, the provincial budget anticipated a surplus of $3.6 billion–how times have changed.

You can find our full analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.