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Month: February 2025

The People Have Spoken: Ontario’s Next Chapter

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Premier Doug Ford won a third consecutive mandate after calling an early election more than a year ahead of schedule. Riding the high of his alter ego, Captain Canada, Ford successfully positioned himself as the leader best prepared to protect Ontario from the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Speaking at his victory party, Ford said he needed “a strong mandate that outlives and outlasts the Trump administration. A mandate to do whatever it takes to protect Ontario.”  

In the end, the PCs claimed 80 seats, and the NDP held onto their role as Ontario’s Official Opposition with 27 seats, while the Liberals regained official party status, picking up 14 seats. The Ontario Greens retained their two seats in the Legislature. 

The Ontario Liberals successfully flipped four seats, gaining ground in Nepean and Ajax, and winning in the historically Liberal riding of Toronto—St. Paul’s, which the NDP have held since 2018.  

Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie lost in her own riding of Mississauga East-Cooksville but promised to stay on as leader in her concession speech.  

Voter turnout surpassed the last election, with 45 percent of Ontarians casting ballots.  

New Government Mandate 

Cruising to victory with a rare 3rd consecutive majority, Ford has secured another four-year term. With a strong mandate from the people of Ontario, Ford will view these results as an explicit endorsement of his platform, which he laid out the details of earlier this week. Look for Ford to prioritize the following initiatives throughout the early stages of the new parliamentary session: 

  • Protecting Ontario from tariffs: Ford earmarked nearly $20 billion to combat the likely impact of these penalties on Ontario businesses. 
  • Removing interprovincial trade barriers: The PCs promised $50 million to a new Ontario Trade Together Fund supporting Ontario businesses’ ability to expand into other provinces. 
  • Supporting our security: They committed to prioritizing investments in defence spending and border security, speaking directly to Trump’s criticism of Canada’s contributions to NATO. 
  • Investing in Infrastructure: The Conservatives plan to add an additional $5 billion to the Building Ontario Fund to build more LTC homes, housing units and transportation infrastructure, potentially including Ford’s wildly controversial 401 tunnel. 
  • Hurrying up Hubs: Lastly, expect Ford to prioritize keeping his promise to open the province’s 27 new HART Hubs by April 1, 2025, his $530 million alternative to the Supervised Consumption Sits currently operating in the province. 

If you think all of this sounds like it costs a lot of money, that’s because it does. Ford’s platform calls for $40 billion in new government spending, leaving some to question the Premier’s promise to balance the budget by next fiscal year. Only time will tell if a new spending blitz will be enough to push back on incoming U.S. tariffs and keep Ford’s promise to protect Ontario. 

Official Opposition Platform 

NDP – More of the Same 

While they were hoping for a more decisive result, yesterday could have gone worse for the NDP. Ontario’s Dippers managed to hold on to all of their incumbents in the province’s Northern ridings, which the Conservatives heavily targeted. They also managed to keep most of their urban seats in the province held by an incumbent, only losing Toronto-St. Paul’s to the Liberals.  

Ironically, the NDP seemed to receive the same message as Ford’s victorious PCs from Ontario voters: more of the same, please. As the Official Opposition, the NDP now have a renewed mandate to hold the PCs to account, on cornerstone issues like healthcare, housing and affordability. 

However, one question remains: leadership. While Marit Stiles won her seat handily, she didn’t perform any better than previous NDP bosses, which could be grounds for dismissal if the party is ambitious. However, given the short election period and her party’s Opposition status, expect Stiles to be granted some leniency and stay on as party head until at least the next election. 

Liberals – Bonnie in Two? 

Despite campaigning on winning in one election, Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie moved her own goalposts for the snap election call. She had three things she needed to accomplish: 

  1. Win official party status (12 seats) 
  2. Move into official opposition 
  3. Win her seat 

Unfortunately for her, she only managed to accomplish one of the three, securing official party status, and all the benefits that come with it for her beleaguered party. Outside these goals, she failed to deliver seats in Mississauga and much of the vote-rich 905.  

Will party status be enough to keep the naysayers at bay, giving Crombie a second shot, or will the knives start to turn inward?  

Close Races, Fresh Faces 

While the legislature’s composition remains largely the same, this less-than-eventful election did bring us a few tight races and fresh faces. Here are the new talking heads we’ll be seeing in the next legislative session:  

  • Etobicoke—Lakeshore: Liberal’s Lee Fairclough picks up over PC’s Christine Hogarth.  
  • Hamilton Mountain: Monica Ciriello gains, marking the PC’s first victory in the riding since 1999. The riding was long held by NDP MPP Monique Taylor, who is looking to make her move into federal politics.  
  • Hamilton Centre: Robin Lennox (technically) reclaims the riding for the NDP. It was previously held by Sarah Jama, who sat as an independent after being ousted from the same party. 
  • Algoma—Manitoulin: PC’s Bill Rosenberg beats out independent incumbent Michael Mantha, who formerly sat with the NDP until 2023. The PC’s first victory in the riding since 1987.  
  • Toronto—St. Paul’s: Liberals reclaim historical stronghold. Former CP24 anchor Stephanie Smyth gains over prominent NDP incumbent Dr. Jill Andrew.  
  • Don Valley North: Liberal candidate Jonathan Tsao gains over PC’s Sue Liu. 
  • Ajax: Liberal’s Rob Cerjanec narrowly pulls from PC incumbent Patrice Barnes.  
  • Nepean: Liberal candidate Tyler Watt flips after longtime PC incumbent Lisa MacLeod announced her exit from provincial politics.  

Too close to call 

Politicos will still be watching out for local recounts and potential flips as counting continues. Here are the races where it may be too close to call: 

  • Burlington: PC incumbent Natalie Pierre leads over Liberals by 40 votes.  
  • Mississauga—Erin Mills: PC incumbent Sheref Sabawy leads over Liberals by 20 votes. 
  • York South—Weston: PC candidate Mohamed Firin leads over Liberals by 44 votes. 
  • Mushkegowuk—James Bay: NDP incumbent Guy Bourgouin leads over PCs by 4 votes.   

 

Have any questions about the Ontario election? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.  

Uncertainty: Alberta Braces for Choppy Economic Waters​

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The first two months of 2025 have seen a shift in the global economic context, and governments have been forced to adapt. Last year was about responsibly building the province, this year it’s about confronting new challenges head-on.

Alberta remains one of the fastest-growing provinces in Canada, and that growth continues to put pressure on the services Albertans count on every day. New this year are the ongoing trade conflicts with the U.S., which threaten to put significant downward economic pressure on not just Alberta but the entire global economy.

The fiscal framework introduced in 2023 was meant to keep Alberta’s financial situation in check and the province’s spending within its means. Those guardrails allow for deviation in the event of extraordinary circumstances—and these are extraordinary circumstances.

For the first time in Premier Smith’s tenure, the Government of Alberta is forecasting a $5.2 billion deficit, which will be reduced over the next three years. The deficit results from a doubling of the Government’s fiscal contingency in response to global volatility, as well as a significant increase in government spending while revenue remains stagnant. Almost every department will see an increase in their budget, and spending on new capital projects has increased by more than $1 billion.

Budget 2025 is unchartered waters for a UCP government, but as Minister Horner said in his address, “we are in a difficult time.”

You can find our full analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.

If stakeholder capitalism is dead, then Canadian businesses should not lose sight of purpose 

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It feels like a lifetime ago that in 2019, 181 CEOs of the biggest companies in the United States came together to redefine the purpose of a corporation to promote “an economy that serves all Americans.”  

We can laugh at the hubris of the proclamation, but it responded to a real demand for businesses to stand for something beyond profits. The year 2020 intensified that demand. The murder of George Floyd sparked calls for racial justice and equity. The immediate impacts of one global crisis (COVID-19) forced people to think deeply about other crises, like climate change and income inequality.  

Above all, it was a time when businesses seemed to understand that, in the big picture, they operate because of their customers, employees, suppliers, communities and shareholders. And it was time to start acting with all those interests in mind. 

Since 2020, the stakeholder capitalism movement has had a rough go. Emmanuel Faber, who famously boasted that his company, Danone, had “toppled the statue of Milton Friedman” with its purposeful approach to capitalism, was sacked; Nike cut 30 per cent of its sustainability staff; and Larry Fink, one of the leading proponents of stakeholder capitalism, stopped talking about it altogether. 

The strains of this movement were predictable early. Today they’re clearer and starker.  

To start, the issue environment that businesses seemed eager to enter is highly polarized. Take ESG, for example. While it was once widely believed that embracing these principles was strategic from both an ethical and risk management perspective, a rising tide has written the framework off as woke moralizing or a deliberate attack on energy producers, with 18 U.S. states passing laws that discourage the practice. 

Take the Israel-Hamas war as another. While every company should place a high value on human life and oppose race- or religious-based violence of any kind, very few are equipped to offer constructive messages on a complex conflict with age-old roots. Most have chosen the simpler route of retreating altogether. 

Another diagnosis is that for some Canadians, businesses have lost the right to lecture them on social issues. U.S. President Joe Biden famously likes to tell Americans, “Don’t tell me what you value. Show me your budget, and I’ll tell you what you value.” 

It appears many Canadians are making similar assessments of their employers. If executive compensation continues to outpace worker pay, carbon emissions continue to increase, and race-based inequities persist, they feel they’ve seen what they need to see about corporate Canada’s “values.” 

It would be easy to declare the stakeholder capitalism movement dead or dying in Canada. The harder question: What could make it work?  

The solution comes back to the first principle that companies driven by an intrinsic purpose fare best over time, both for themselves and society. In practice, that means defining your priorities and strengths and leaning into them as core focuses, leaning out from others. In other words, speaking loudly on issues of principle and purpose, but saving the virtue signalling for others. 

This discussion should influence human resources, capital allocation, operational planning and strategic message development. We need more than just statements and slogans, but businesses with clarity about what they stand for.  

Achieving this can help build alignment with stakeholders, encourage open, fact-based discussions about future plans, and help to sustain trust in a rapidly changing economy and society. 

Stakeholder capitalism may be dying as a term, but this form of pragmatic, long-term planning rooted in real purpose should not. 

Si Montréal est rempli d’obstacles, il devra demeurer créatif pour se distinguer

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C’est bien connu : Montréal est une ville emblématique, parsemée de cônes orange, de panneaux « DÉTOUR » souvent contradictoires, et de nids-de-poule. Naviguer dans la ville peut parfois se révéler être un véritable défi, suscitant frustration et jurons chez piétons et automobilistes. Pourtant, pour d’autres, l’expérience montréalaise s’avère bien plus fluide. 

C’est le cas pour plusieurs industries qui, ces dernières décennies, ont choisi Montréal comme leur pôle canadien. Leur succès montréalais leur a permis de rayonner non seulement au Canada, mais aussi à l’échelle mondiale. 

Prenons l’exemple du secteur de l’aérospatiale. Avec des poids lourds comme Bombardier, Pratt & Whitney, Airbus et CAE, ainsi que des centaines de partenaires, Montréal s’est imposée comme le 3e pôle mondial dans ce domaine. C’est d’ailleurs le seul endroit au monde où un avion peut être entièrement assemblé à partir de composants fabriqués localement. 

Montréal s’affirme également comme la capitale mondiale des jeux vidéo. Fondée en France, Ubisoft a ouvert son premier bureau nord-américain à Montréal en 1997. Aujourd’hui, il s’agit du plus grand studio de développement au monde, avec plus de 4 000 employés et des franchises à succès comme Assassin’s Creed, Far Cry, Watch Dogs et Rainbow Six. Le succès d’Ubisoft à Montréal a encouragé d’autres studios et entreprises d’animation à venir s’y installer, contribuant à l’essor de cette industrie dans notre métropole. 

Plus récemment, c’est l’industrie technologique, et plus précisément celle de l’intelligence artificielle, qui a fait de Montréal sa plaque tournante. Avec l’Institut des algorithmes d’apprentissage de Montréal (MILA) et la plus grande communauté universitaire en IA au monde, des géants comme DeepMind, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Samsung et Thales ont tous choisi d’y investir.  

Malgré les critiques récurrentes sur l’état des infrastructures, le système d’éducation et l’accès difficile aux services sociaux au Québec, comment Montréal est-elle devenue un catalyseur de croissance pour ces industries ? Et pourquoi ces entreprises ont-elles préféré Montréal à Vancouver ou à la Ville Reine ? Vancouver bénéficie pourtant d’une main-d’œuvre hautement qualifiée et d’un emplacement stratégique pour le commerce international, notamment avec l’Asie. De son côté, Toronto, la plus grande ville du Canada et la capitale financière du pays, bénéficie d’une économie diversifiée qui fait d’elle un choix privilégié pour les grandes entreprises et les affaires internationales. 

Il se trouve que plusieurs facteurs ont contribué à la création de cet écosystème unique à Montréal, devenu aujourd’hui incontournable pour les industries cherchant à propulser leur croissance. Tout d’abord, l’emplacement stratégique de Montréal offre un accès direct au marché nord-américain ainsi qu’une ouverture privilégiée vers l’Europe. 

Réputée pour sa diversité, Montréal est aussi un véritable creuset de talents, d’idées et de perspectives. La ville abrite deux universités anglophones, deux francophones et plus de 50 chaires de recherche, attirant des talents venus des quatre coins du monde. Les partenariats entre institutions éducatives et industries ont permis de créer des programmes de formation spécialisés, assurant une main-d’œuvre qualifiée et prête à répondre aux besoins du marché. 

Enfin, le gouvernement du Québec a su soutenir ces secteurs grâce à des initiatives favorisant l’innovation et l’investissement. Des programmes gouvernementaux, des incitations fiscales et des incubateurs ont facilité l’émergence de startups et l’installation d’entreprises bien établies. 

Montréal est ainsi devenue un terreau fertile pour l’innovation, attirant entreprises, investisseurs étrangers et talents désireux de profiter de ces conditions idéales. 

Malgré l’exode massif vers Toronto dans les années 70, Montréal a su conserver sa réputation de ville à l’avant-garde de l’innovation. Et tandis que la ville continue d’être marquée par ses travaux routiers incessants, on peut se demander : quelle nouvelle industrie y trouvera bientôt son essor ?

If Canada wants to be an EV leader, then it needs to place its eggs in more than one basket

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Canada’s auto sector has many of the fundamentals right. Our educated workforce, history of high-quality assembly and parts manufacturing, and close trading relationship with the U.S. have been pillars of our success for decades. 

As the industry shifts toward the manufacturing of electric vehicles, or EVs, our abundance of critical minerals offers us an even greater advantage in a global arms race to build and power the cars of the future. 

Federal and provincial governments alike are seized with this opportunity and have invested billions to support EV and battery manufacturing on home soil. And while I support these investments, it’s also important to reflect on the true strength of Canada’s auto sector: its diversity. We’ve never kept all our eggs in one basket. And we shouldn’t change that in the years ahead.  

We can’t be selective or ideological when it comes to auto jobs. Realistically, if you look at the Detroit Three (General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis), pickup trucks pay the bills. The three companies committed over $120 billion towards EV and EV battery manufacturing, but their major profit centres remain with internal combustion engines (ICEs).

A few years ago, Ford made a big splash with the F150 Lightning, its flagship EV pickup truck. The result? In 2023, Ford sold 24,165 EV pickup trucks, and about 750,000 F150s.

With Trump threatening tariffs and a rollback of Biden-era EV policies, the industry will be under even greater pressure. But counterintuitively, if Pierre Poilievre wins the election and comes out saying the Canadian government will no longer be an active participant in the EV market, we’ll pay one hell of a price.  

Ontarians will remember that one of the first things Doug Ford did when he became premier was cancel the incentives to buy an electric vehicle. I was okay with that in isolation, because he was basically penalizing Tesla, one of the most anti-union companies in the world. But here we are in 2025 and what is he doing? Heavily investing in electric vehicles and marketing Ontario as a destination of choice for the sector. 

An incoming government should bypass any uncertainty and embrace the sector from day one. We should demand and expect a credible plan that looks past immediate political pressures and prioritizes the long-term protection and diversification of our auto sector. 

Jerry Dias was the founding president of Unifor and served as an advisor to Canada’s NAFTA negotiating team.