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Dealing with Deficits: Ontario’s 2024 Budget

The province is returning to a nearly double-digit deficit of $9.8 billion from a reported surplus in its Q3 finances, the largest since Kathleen Wynne’s election year budget in 2018. The Ford government is hoping to pull out all the stops to grow Ontario’s economy through targeted investments in infrastructure, housing, and skills training, all while keeping costs down for Ontarians.

To explain the red ink, the Ford government is pointing the finger at a host of factors – inflation, interest rates, and $6 billion in desperately needed payments to the broader public sector due to the court’s ruling against the PCs’ Bill 124 public sector wage constraint legislation.

Central to the government’s plan to stay on course are massive investments in infrastructure. With over $190 billion set aside over the next 10 years (an increase of roughly $6 billion since last year’s plan), the government continues to prioritize new builds and redevelopments in the health and long-term care, housing, and public transportation sectors.

As high interest rates persist and the global economy prepares to weather more headwinds, Ontario’s deficit is expected to triple in the short term. The PCs continue to stick to “third road” fiscal planning – no new taxes, no deep cuts, balancing the budget through growth – but will that be enough?

You can find our full analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.

After weeks of mean-spirited speculation, Kate Middleton shows she has her priorities straight — and the humility of the late Queen

It’s said that revision sits at the very heart of great writing.

And right now, I feel every beat of that truism.

Let me be perfectly honest: I am madly rewriting this week’s column. I had written about the disappearance of Kate Middleton, the Princess of Wales, from the public eye, the firestorm of controversy that it created, and the public affairs lessons that could be drawn from the episode.

Now, I — along with the rest of the world — sit at my desk shocked and deeply saddened to learn of the Princess’ recent cancer diagnosis.

And all of a sudden, while those lessons still, for the most part, hold, each has been so clearly and powerfully superseded by others — by higher lessons about what truly matters in this life.

And that mother, wife and daughter — and yes, princess — explained to the public that she has “taken time.” Time to process the difficult news. Time to start her treatment. Time to tell her young children that their mother was going to be OK.

Time a raging conspiratorial news cycle could not and did not afford her.

There is still some confusion around her diagnosis and bewilderment around Kensington Palace’s initial response. There is still plenty of speculation; speculation that isn’t going to end anytime soon.

But here is what’s perfectly clear: Kate Middleton has authentically demonstrated that she is a wife, a mother and a daughter first, and a princess second.

And needless to say, she has got the order right.

The final words of Kate’s video message were to those who, like her, are battling cancer. Those powerful words reminded them that they are “not alone.”

I can tell you from the experience of battling a life-threatening illness of my own, how much those simple words can mean, how much hope they can inspire, the comfort they can provide.

Last year, in tribute to my friend Elizabeth Dowdeswell, Ontario’s longest serving lieutenant-governor, I wrote that if the monarchy was going to survive in this modern era, it would not be because of its pageantry or history, but rather because it would be embodied by extraordinary people.

Those who served with as much humility as did our late Queen. Those who encourage us to never give up on our ideals. Who bring out our common humanity.

And so, while this diagnosis will take Kate away from her official duties, her message on Friday, her strength and perseverance, her humanity, is a service unto itself. The kind that transcends conspiracy or news cycle.

That kind that endures.

Quebec Budget 2024: A Reality Check?

The 2024-2025 budget reveals an $11 billion deficit attributed to sluggish economic activity and increased spending on public sector settlements. In response, the government is reaffirming its priorities and devoting the bulk of its spending to health and education.

For the Coalition Avenir Québec, this budget marks a challenging moment. Opposition parties criticize past election-oriented budgets, tax cuts for individuals and one-off cheques sent to Quebecers to help them fight inflation. Despite this criticism, the government is sticking to its game plan, eschewing talk of austerity and committing to returning to balanced budgets in the future while enhancing public services.

To achieve its goals, the government plans to launch a “comprehensive review” of government and tax spending in the upcoming spring.

The 2024-2025 budget was an opportunity for Premier François Legault to reaffirm his priorities in a difficult context. The effectiveness of the announced measures and the hope of an economic upturn by the year’s end will determine whether public finances can find a more stable footing.

You can find our analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.

What Brian Mulroney knew about politics and Canada that is missing today

As much as victory’s highs are as ephemeral as a shooting star, defeat’s bitter sting lingers in a way never quite forgotten.

For me, Election Night 1993 will never be forgotten.

Peter Mansbridge summarized it best, “The Jays have painted the country blue. The Liberals have painted it red.”

With barely a sliver of blue on the electoral map, the Progressive Conservative party was reduced not to rubble but quarry dust — two seats.

The “grand conservative coalition” fell. The regionalist Reform and Bloc parties rose. And while Brian Mulroney was not on the 1993 ballot, his record was. The Brian Mulroney era was decidedly over.

Observing the sheer scale of the loss, political leaders across this country were quick to draw a lesson.

The wrong one.

Where they saw a warning sign in that defeat, they should have seen a road map to success.

Political leaders come to office with fundamentally different views of success. For some, the definition of success is governing in a way that ensures the support of “the base.” This approach posits it was, of course, the base that elected you and it is, to the base, you owe fealty.

Others believe that the political capital that comes with success must be spent to backstop the support of the base, to be sure, but also on both the issues of the day that come across a prime minister’s desk and the transformational projects that build nations.

Brian Mulroney understood this better than any prime minister since Sir John A. Macdonald. And so, spend it he did. Not simply on his own narrow interests but in the interests of the country he was elected to serve.

Today, our leaders must confront that same challenge.

The problems Canada faces are neither transitory nor benign, they are structural. Structural problems require structural solutions. And structural solutions take vast amounts of political capital.

Canada not only has a productivity emergency, it has a political capital deficit. In our hyper-fragmented media landscape, politics has become a game of inches.

And nations are not built an inch at a time.

In Canada, building a national consensus in real-time is almost impossible. That’s why political leaders need to have the courage to act and the willingness to spend political capital BEFORE that consensus emerges.

Anyone living under the fantasy that our problems in housing, homelessness, health care and immigration will be solved by anything less than major, far-sighted, national initiatives is gravely mistaken.

In his time, Brian Mulroney identified the structural challenges that faced Canada and steered a course to meet them. To boost our country’s competitiveness, he undertook permanent structural reform of our tax system. He faced down the pernicious evil of apartheid by using his personal political capital to confront racism in its most vile form.

And, crucially, he spent political capital not just by appeasing his base, but by seizing opportunities. Case in point: free trade. Mulroney knew there would be winners and losers. And that many of those losers would be Conservative voters. But he also understood Canada’s economy desperately required creative destruction in order to create a more resilient, competitive one.

The fact that Mulroney suffered politically as he implemented these structural changes is not to be ignored.

It is to be emphasized.

History speaks for itself. Not one of Mulroney’s successors, even after years of attacking the GST and free trade, dared to significantly alter course on either issue.

And so, at this moment, when it looks like there will soon be another change in our political era, let’s remember the true Mulroney legacy. The legacy of nation building. And in doing so, let’s look at the opportunity for our leaders: not to simply aspire to greatness but to achieve it.

Let our leaders believe in Canada more than we sometimes believe in ourselves. Let them dream of a Canada “fair and generous, tolerant and just.” Let them serve it tirelessly to ensure that dream comes true for all Canadians. For those who are struggling to make ends meet today. For those who feel left behind today.

And in doing so, let them set the table for those Canadians who are yet to come.

Navigating Uncertainty: Alberta’s Precautionary Budget

Budget 2024: A Responsible Plan for a Growing Province

Albertans are likely to face headwinds this year as the broader economy is expected to slow slightly, experts predict another summer of worsening drought and wildfires, and debt servicing/debt refinancing costs increase significantly due to the current high interest rate environment. If Budget 2023 was a pre-election budget intended to keep Danielle Smith in the premier’s chair, Budget 2024 is a governing budget, leaning into themes of responsible spending and saving.

Budget 2024 prepares for these challenges while maintaining economic growth and labour attraction policies and safeguarding spending so Albertans continue to receive the high levels of service they are accustomed to.

Premier Smith’s vision for a reinvigorated Alberta Heritage Trust Fund remains a top priority for the year and likely for her mandate, having previewed the budget as Alberta’s last shot at getting off the resource revenue rollercoaster and saving for the future. The government is retaining more than $1 billion in investment earnings from the previous year and will deposit another $2 billion increasing the value of the fund to $25 billion.

This is a potentially fraught year to chart a new course and, to succeed, the Finance Minister and Premier will need to resist the temptations of stimulus spending and hold firm to the plan, more details of which are promised later in the year.

You can find our analysis of the budget below. For more analysis, or support engaging government on any of the budget announcements, contact your Navigator team or reach out at info@navltd.com.