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How Canadian politicians should prepare for a second Trump presidency

Part cliché. Mostly truism. It is said that there are no sure things in politics.

But, after his unprecedented victories in both New Hampshire and Iowa, Donald Trump locking up the Republican nomination looks pretty damn certain.

When politicians are presented with uncomfortable realities, they can do one of two things. Run around aimlessly with their pants on fire. Or, wake up, become serious and get to work.

Sadly, Canadians politicians have been trending down the former path this past week.

Jagmeet Singh described Trump as “vengeance-filled” and an “egomaniac.” Justin Trudeau opined about his “unpredictability.”

Characterizations as profoundly unenlightening as they are unhelpful.

While those characterizations might well be true, not only is it unwise to further rile an egomaniac by calling him one, it looks weak to respond to a brewing development by perceiving it first as a major threat, rather than an opportunity.

It looks weak, because it is weak.

There may be a storm brewing south of the border — but, frankly, we have bigger problems to deal with. Our economy, and more specifically our productivity, is in a terminal state of weakness. And if Trump is going to create a storm of unpredictability, danger, and vindictiveness, we cannot afford to make excuses but need to use the wind from his storm to sail our own ship faster, and more efficiently than ever before.

The scale of our problem is staggering. Leave aside all the issues we have with housing, addiction to unskilled labour, or whatever else it may be. Our productivity, the fuel of economic growth, driver of competitiveness, and elevator of living standards, is a catastrophe.

Researchers from the Centre for Productivity and Prosperity found that four decades ago, when adjusted for inflation and currency fluctuations, Canadians enjoyed a higher per capita standard of living than average among the major Western economies.

Now, Canadians are, on average, annually living $5,000 below that average. And if the current trend continues, we will be nearly $18,000 below that average by 2060.

What’s worse, there is nothing in our current economic planning or outlook that indicates we are on course to rectify that trend. The problem is as acute as it is current. At the start of this year, the Bank of Montreal’s chief economist noted our labour productivity has now tumbled for six consecutive financial quarters.

If Trump, anathema he might be, becomes president again, one can only hope the panic that will ensue among our political class translates into a much-needed kick in the ass.

In fact, it just might be that a Trump victory is good for Canada.

Our economic problems run so deep that an effort analogous to a wartime one is needed. And, if Trump needs to be a catalyst for that, by sidelining us from free trade, or enacting superficial, performative measures at our border, so be it.

The brutal truth is that, with or without Trump, we are in a national economic emergency. Some action is better than no action, to be sure. That said, I would have preferred, if during the Liberal’s cabinet retreat this week, the government had outlined a plan to tackle our productivity emergency instead of spending all this time on a “Canada-U. S. engagement strategy.”

It isn’t as though we are in a position of strength when it comes to economic negotiations with our American friends. Our productivity is in a sustained free fall that hasn’t been seen since the postwar years. While the U.S. will remain our most important trading partner and ally, if this ailment continues to fester we will become increasingly less important to them.

Sadly, we already are. And our politician’s current rhetoric toward the upcoming U.S. election reeks of ignorance on this point. It has no impact on Trump’s political calculus if Trudeau and Singh portray him as the big bad wolf. If anything, it probably plays to his advantage.

What would make Trump sit up, take notice and take us seriously? A concentrated effort to restore our economic usefulness.

Two birds, one stone.

Sonya Savage appointed Expert Panelist at the CCPC and Senior Public Policy Advisor at Navigator

Calgary, AB, January 25, 2024 – Former Alberta Minister of Environment and Protected Areas and Minister of Energy Sonya Savage joins the Canadian Centre for the Purpose of the Corporation (CCPC) as an Expert Panelist and, as a Senior Advisor, will also provide public policy advice to Navigator and its clients.

“I’m thrilled to join the Canadian Centre for the Purpose of the Corporation’s expert panel. The CCPC’s mission to support organizations in achieving impactful ESG objectives resonates deeply with the values I’ve championed throughout my career, as a lawyer, an energy executive and as a cabinet minister. But more, I look forward to being able to immerse myself in the challenging public policy issues Navigator’s clients deal with.”

“More and more, organizations are seeking advice as they work to balance the demands of delivering on their purpose and ESG commitments in an increasingly challenging environment. Sonya couldn’t be joining us at a more opportune time.” remarked Graham Fox, Executive Chairman of the CCPC and Navigator’s Ottawa Managing Principal.

Added Jason Hatcher, Navigator’s Calgary Managing Principal “We are delighted that, in addition to having Sonya join the CCPC’s expert panel, we will be able to call on her genuinely unique experience to provide our clients with public policy advice.”

Sonya can be reached at sosavage@blg.com.

About Sonya Savage

Sonya Savage was first elected in 2019 and served as the Minister of Energy for Alberta, successfully leading the province through a global pandemic and overhauling energy policy to accelerate sustainable investment. In 2022, she was appointed to Minister of Environment and Protected Areas, overseeing the ESG Secretariat and developing the province’s net-zero climate strategy. Currently, Savage serves as Senior Counsel at BLG, leveraging her lengthy pipeline industry experience and political career to provide expert advice to clients on a range of issues. She also holds a Master of Laws in Environment and Energy with a published thesis on the evolving role of the National Energy Board. Learn more

About the Canadian Centre for the Purpose of the Corporation

The CCPC is an initiative of Navigator, Canada’s leading high-stakes strategic advisory and communications firm. The Centre releases regular analysis and guidance for business based around the expectations of Canadians. These insights inform the design of tailor-made strategic solutions for businesses and organizations to define, advance, and implement their purpose.

The Centre is led by Graham Fox alongside a panel of experts in policy, governance, business, law, communications, equity and diversity, sustainability and social responsibility. Learn more

Without a seat at Queen’s Park, Ontario is Bonnie Crombie’s to discover — and conquer

So, which will it be: door No. 1 or door No. 2?

The question, of course, is one of the very first that confronts the newly elected leader of the Ontario Liberal party, Bonnie Crombie.

And what will the door she chooses tell us about how she intends to lead?

Until just this past week, Crombie was the mayor of Mississauga. But now that she is clear of this obligation and can fully turn her mind to defeating Premier Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs, Crombie must decide whether — and when — to seek a seat in the Ontario legislature.

And this is where those two doors come into play

Many would advise that it is crucial for Crombie to get a seat as quickly as possible. Those who hold this view — door No. 1 — would argue that it is only there, in the people’s house, that the new Liberal leader can effectively hold the government to account and demonstrate her ability to one day become premier.

They would further argue that it is from that green leather seat that the new leader can best form a relationship with the press gallery, which is an essential ingredient in a successful general election campaign.

And, finally, they would say it is respectful of our democratic process.

Others — and I am one of them — see things very differently and strongly believe Crombie’s best choice is door No. 2.

Door No. 2 holds that she need not worry about getting a seat until the next election. Those who believe this is the best approach understand that, for her, sitting in the legislature is a waste of time.

We believe this for several reasons — both strategic and tactical. Throw in practical as well.

Let’s start with the practical: the Liberals aren’t considered, under the rules of the legislature, to be an official party. What does that mean? It means that Question Period is essentially the Marit Stiles and Doug Ford show, with Crombie looking like a not-ready-for-prime-time understudy. It means the Liberals are not guaranteed a question every day.

Now the tactical: the Liberals currently hold just nine seats. For Bonnie to be able to run in a byelection, one of those nine would have to resign. Whilst there is plenty of precedent for this approach, with a caucus of nine and a party that can charitably be called impecunious, it would seem to be unwise.

A lot of time and effort that would be more efficiently spent elsewhere would have to be directed to ensuring the leader’s victory.

But now to the strategic: it simply doesn’t matter. Not a whit.

Experience in a legislature? She already has it. Crombie sat as a federal Liberal MP from 2008 until 2011.

Relationships with the media? She’s got those as well. Besides, long gone are the days when the gallery was the gatekeeper to communicating with the public.

But more than all of that, being free of the obligations of being tied to Queen’s Park will allow Crombie to play to her strengths as a terrific retail politician.

Now, it is generally believed that incumbent governments have a structural advantage in elections, that incumbency allows them to hold most of the cards.

But it is her abilities as a retail politician where Crombie pulls even with the premier. Without question, Ford is the most accomplished retail politician of his generation. He’s proven he can connect with Ontarians from all walks of life. It was central to his ability to lead Ontario through the pandemic. It remains his superpower.

That said, his responsibilities as premier, which keep him tied to the Pink Palace, don’t let him show off those powers as much as he might like.

And Crombie’s freedom from the very same restrictions allow her to shine.

So while Ford’s Conservatives will look to define the new leader with a multi-channel ad campaign, Crombie will be free to tour the province in a bus with her face splashed on all sides, giving real-life proof to another reality.

Door No. 2 it is.

How the Navigator Black community is navigating the Israel-Hamas conflict

The Israel-Hamas war continues to play out in Gaza, complete with searing images of death and destruction. This week the International Court of Justice is hearing arguments brought by South Africa that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.

This conflict is entering its fourth month. No end is in sight. And many organizations in Canada continue to wrestle with how to respond. It is clear no single response is possible. No option perfect.

With that in mind, we spoke to four members of the Navigator Black community to discuss how they responded, and to share their insights in weighing how to approach this conflict, both inside and outside their organizations.

Their reflections are captured in the conversations below and offered exclusively to Navigator Black members.

Shelby Austin

Shelby Austin is the co-founder and CEO of Arteria AI. The Toronto-based firm works with clients around the world in the financial services sector to improve operational efficiency through digital documentation and data management.

In October she joined other Canadian CEO’s in signing an open letter to all levels of government demanding action to curb the rise of antisemitism and islamophobia in the wake of the Hamas attack on Israel.

Chris Hall: What is Arteria’s approach to commenting on significant global issues like the Hamas Israel conflict?

Shelby Austin: I suppose typically Arteria doesn’t comment on any issues as an organization. That said, we’re in a little bit of a different position than others because we are, as individuals, sort of synonymous with our organization.

We will choose to publicly comment as individuals, quite often alongside the company name, so it’s almost a distinction without difference.

For example, I signed the Globe and Mail letter as Shelby Austin, but also as the CEO of Arteria which was a clear public statement around the issues in the Israel-Hamas war.

CH: So how did you arrive at that decision to add your name or your signature to the Globe and Mail letter?

SA: I mean, it was just the right thing to do. We have often had good discussions about what is the right role of management in these sorts of situations. And for me, personally, I believe that many people who work with us need to understand our purpose and our values as individuals.

When something happens in the world that we believe we need to speak out on, we’ll often post something that is meaningful, authentic and that reflects our values.

So, in this case, when someone called me and said, would you put your name to this, I gave it a read and thought, well, what could be a better use of my limited amount of influence? I was happy to do it.

CH: Is that the first time you’ve done something like that? To speak out or add your name to a statement on an international or global issue?

SA: No, no. I often, through my LinkedIn, through my Instagram, through any of my social media accounts, will speak out on issues that matter. Again, I’m not necessarily speaking for a corporate body, but when something touches my soul and I am educated about it and it’s meaningful to me, I’ll absolutely comment on it.

There’s no policy of commenting, by the way, no policy to always say something or never say something. It really is a judgment call, particularly if I’m hearing our teams speak about something. And you know, then we’ll often have a discussion.

One of the most unique aspects of Arteria is that we have a culture that we work on together as a company on a weekly basis. It’s quite a unique organizational construct that allows us to have discussions like this.

And really, it’s not that we get every issue right. I mean of course we’re trying to get it right, but the goal is not necessarily to say the “right thing” all the time. The goal is to have authentic discussions with our teams about what they may be feeling in their hearts or carrying with them. We want to make space for people to feel that they can bring their whole selves to work in a really authentic manner.

CH: Was this issue different from others in terms of how your team responded? Do more people who work with you have a connection to that region, have stronger views about Israeli and Palestinian causes than they do about Russia and Ukraine, for example?

SA: No. For us it wasn’t any different. I happen to be proud and Jewish, and people know that about me.

And so I think to some extent there may have been an expectation that this was different for me.

But the truth is I am pretty attuned to what’s going on in the world and often we’ll try and make space for our team.

Our team is very multicultural. It’s overwhelmingly diverse from all walks of life, and that includes different genders, races, religions, etc. So, we don’t come to this as a homogeneous culture. Really, for us, it’s just about being hyper respectful and making space for people to have authentic conversations, because in truth many will say there’s no place in their job or in the boardroom for these sorts of opinions.

I think that people come to work with what’s going on in the world in their heart. To not make space for that, I think, is a critical misstep. Not doing so can be the cause of real risk items for our business, like attrition, like recruitment fees. I mean it’s a business issue in my point of view, to be both diverse and to put our values first.

CH: What kind of feedback did you get? For example, did you expect you might have some people applauding you for being part of the statement, or did you worry that some people would say, look, I don’t think you should have said anything.

SA: Well, I suppose I’m always open to feedback and I don’t always say the right thing, so there’s always a possibility that people will come out and say that was wrong and I was keenly aware that that might be a challenge.

But you know, if you speak from the heart, if you’re really speaking from your own place with respect and great capacity for understanding, I think that that’s an OK outcome because, really what you’re saying is, these are my views. I hold them strongly enough to speak out, and if you disagree, let’s have a conversation because it’s obviously something I felt strong enough about to say something publicly on a whole bunch of different channels.

And, as a result, I’m happy to have conversations or educational moments on any of these issues, whether it’s the Israel-Hamas war or really any item that’s come up, of which there have been many in recent days. Issues where I felt strongly that it was important to share views or to share empathy most of all which is really what we’re trying to do.

CH: Could I come back to your statement that you don’t have a policy for or against speaking out. As you consider this now, is it time to have a policy or are you thinking of having a policy for Arteria about when it’s appropriate to speak out?

SA: Listen, I have worked for very large corporations where there have been many policies.

I think one of the gifts of being below the Dunbar number, below a certain threshold of folks within an organizational structure, is that it’s mostly about providing people space and ensuring, of course, that you’re fulfilling all your legal obligations and all the other various items.

But apart from that, which is a wide berth, I think it’s good for us that we want people to show up in a way that makes sense to them. For us, the more forums the better. The forum we can create to debate and to generate great conversation or great thinking around culture or the future of the company or what’s going on in the world or what’s going on in their families is all positive.

I mean, sometimes people carry things with them that have nothing to do with a war but have to do with having kids at home or a sick parent or, you know, people have a lot going on. We don’t ask people to check their personal lives at the door and that’s important to us.

CH: One of the things that has come up is providing that safe space for people to have a discussion to express how they feel. Did you need to do anything to make sure that people understood there was a safe space at Arteria to be able to do that?

SA: I think the nice thing about starting little and being in our third year is that you kind of know what you’re getting on the way in the door. We wear our hearts on our sleeves.

I think anyone who’s worked with me in organizations large or small will tell you that. My cofounders and I have worked for many, many, many years together. In one case, close to 15 and another close to 10. I mean, the three of us have worked together for an extraordinary long time. We are all visibly diverse and we all just try and let people have space.

People often laugh, but our entire company comes on a call for an hour once a week to talk through things like: is kindness an imperative in the workplace, or should we ask for advice rather than feedback to generate a better sense of value both from the receiver and the giver of that advice? Or are we feeling heavy with what’s going on in the world? I mean, these are all issues that would be considered taboo within larger constructs.

But in our construct, it’s the most natural thing, and it’s really organic and it’s something that we talk about. Significantly, we also ask: how do we maintain this culture as we grow?

One of the benefits or scary parts of being a venture-backed backed company is that you’re always aiming to grow. And as we see a rapid headcount growth, for us, we worry more about how we maintain this breath of fresh air, this true, honest-selves-first policy as we get bigger. You know, at some stage when we’re 500 people or more, maybe we’ll move to a policy approach, but right now we run more like a pirate ship than the Navy. At some point that perhaps changes.

But right now, it’s one of the things that I certainly believe is the secret of our success.

CH: I’m still trying to get a sense of how you align those values you just spoke about. With stakeholders or the venture capitalists, for example, who might have a different viewpoint on you speaking your mind on issues like this?

SA: Listen, I think that they know us very well before they invest, right, these are very, very well-vetted decisions and I think they know that we are clear on who we are and that, one of the most important things about being Arterians as we call ourselves is, you know, having that sense of personal purpose.

That means we don’t all have to agree, because that doesn’t make sense to me. I’d like to think we all agree on certain things like we shouldn’t be antisemites or Islamophobic. Obviously, I hope that’s table stakes.

But I think that if what we’re saying is, we need to make space to ensure that if I am from Iran and the events of the past year have touched me, that I have a place to say that. I come to work with a lot on my plate and I need to have this space for people to recognize that. I’m not just carrying the stress of the work today, I’m carrying this stress of my world, whatever that is.

If we don’t make space for people to bring that into their workplace, to have a recognition that the burdens they’re carrying are not just the ones of the next meeting with a customer, that’s a clear negative.

And I would say we’re careful to not enforce homogeny for sure, but we need to ensure that we are making space for authenticity.