Month: May 2022

It’s two weeks away from Election Day. Our major party leaders have been through the wringer with two debates, plenty of attack ads, candidate fiascos, and in the case of Horwath and Schreiner, taken out by the ultimate opponent, COVID-19.

The announcement is perhaps untimely for Horwath, who continues to drag in the polls. The latest Nanos poll has pegged the NDP at just 20 per cent, trailing the PCs at 36 per cent and the Liberals at 29 per cent. Leger’s May 18 poll also revealed 37 per cent of decided voters would vote PC, 28 per cent Liberal and 23 per cent NDP if the election were held today. BUT 46 per cent of decided voters said they may change their minds in the voting booth on Election Day.

What We’re Watching

• On Wednesday, CTV News released an article revealing that dozens of MPPs are sitting on investment properties that have generated gains of over $36.5 million. This is also not the first time the story has come up. Amid a housing crisis, these findings should be getting traction, but it remains to be seen if this second media hit will go anywhere.
• The race for a seat in Del Duca’s home riding of Vaughan-Woodbridge is heating up – or is it? We’re keenly interested in whether Del Duca will be able to beat a sitting Cabinet minister and close friend of Ford for his old seat.
• In more candidate madness, Brantford—Brant PC candidate Will Bouma is in hot water for homophobic comments in a church publication he previously oversaw. Ford defended Bouma, who put out a statement noting his support for the LGBTQ community. Liberal candidates Noel Semple in Etobicoke Centre and Audrey Festeryga in Chatham—Leamington—Kent are also under fire.

Union Endorsements

As we noted in last week’s Friday edition of The Push Back, some private sector unions have broken ranks with their fellow unions in their traditional ties with the Liberals and NDP. While OPSEU and the Ontario Federation of Labour threw their support behind the NDP, we saw more unions endorse the PCs this week. The International Union of Painters and Allied Trades (IUPAT), the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers (SMART), and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) have all thrown their support behind the PCs this week.

Some have likened this flurry of PC union endorsements to the “hard hat revolution” in the U.S. during the 1970s, which saw many union members throw their support behind Richard Nixon. While there are parallels to be drawn, Nixon’s allure was his opposition to the liberal cultural movement that had swept America over the previous decade. Similarly, Ford is racking up endorsements because of the pro-worker policies that his government introduced over the last four years, including the Working for Workers Act.

It should be noted that Ford has not won union support across the board. As noted, public sector unions have maintained their support for the left-leaning parties. Public sector support for the NDP and Liberals can partially be attributed to their platforms on organized labour, but can also be attributed to some of the setbacks that these unions have faced under the Ford government, including Bill 124 which capped public sector wages at a one per cent annual increase for three years and return to office policies.

But do union endorsements really matter? Did Ontario voters notice? Let’s look at the numbers.

Social Media Volume

The below graph shows that initially, there was limited conversation about union endorsements. Volume increased slightly for the NDP around May 9 when several of their candidates were endorsed by the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation (OSSTF). It wasn’t until May 15 that activity spiked, especially when it became clear that the PCs were going to secure endorsements from most construction unions. Yesterday, there were 710 mentions of the PCs endorsements on Twitter, dwarfing the volume seen by any of the other parties. Also of note, the Liberals have received almost no attention about their limited union endorsements, which is unusual given how heavily unions supported the Liberals in the 2014 and 2018 elections.

Push Back Verdict – Bark Worse than Bite

Last week, we concluded that the effects of the union endorsements “can’t be seen.” To some extent, this is still true. By severely limiting the advertising power of unions and third parties in 2018, they no longer have the power they once did to influence voters. The biggest effect that unions still have is their ability to mobilize their members to knock on doors, make phone calls and get out the vote on election day. It’s unclear whether the pro-PC private sector unions are better organized than the “anything but conservative” public sector unions. For the time being, our insights show that PC endorsements have mattered more to voters and we’re fielding research next week to test our hypothesis further. Stay tuned for that update.

Suffice it to say, if Ford and the PCs can continue to effectively push back on the old narrative of the PCs being anti-labour, build on the momentum the party has seen this week and effectively position the PCs as the working-class party of this election, it will be difficult for the Liberals or NDP to beat him on Election Day.

Have any questions about the news out of Queen’s Park this week? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.

 

More than 24 hours have lapsed on the second and last debate with the leaders of Ontario’s four major political parties. Did the leaders make an impression? Did they gain or lose ground with voters? Or were voters even aware of the debate? We took a quick look at the social media trends post-debate with today’s Push Back Spotlight.

Social Media Listening

Who’s being talked about?

Unsurprisingly, Doug Ford dominated the conversation online with overall mentions of the PC leader far higher than that of his opponents. Trailing behind was Liberal leader Steven Del Duca, with his quick jabs and live fact-checks generating some sizeable traction. Likely to the chagrin of NDP leader Andrea Horwath, the strong performance of the Green Party’s Mike Schreiner rivaled and even exceeded that of the official opposition’s.

What’s being talked about?

In an election where affordability is king, we were surprised to see that education dominated the online conversation during Monday’s debate. Del Duca hammered Ford on his public education record, citing the difficult experiences felt by kids studying online during the pandemic.

What are people saying?

Sentiment analysis revealed many critics of Ford’s performance Monday, with quips about the PC leader’s binder providing online opponents with much to talk about. Del Duca, on the other hand elicited a more balanced response from viewers, which was likely more lukewarm than he was hoping for. Of note, was online talk about Schreiner’s performance with our sentiment analysis revealing an overwhelmingly positive response.

The Push Back Verdict — Holding the Line

Doug Ford and Steven Del Duca were able to hold their own in the debate and not lose ground to opponents. Ford bore the brunt of many attacks but continued to face opponents with a cool head. Likewise, Del Duca was able to take the high ground with his education agenda, an area where the PCs have been both traditionally and currently weak. However, this is not a change election and it is likely Ford will benefit from the incumbent advantage with his avoidance of missteps during the debate.

If there was a loser, it was Andrea Horwath with her apparent nervousness and failure to own the progressive agenda at the podium. Even on social disability, Horwath acknowledged Schreiner and the Greens had been an influence to change the NDP’s own policy commitment.

We think Mike Schreiner deserves an honourable mention for his crisp messages and radiating confidence. Ford felt Schreiner’s wrath on attacks that were clear, pointed and disarming. Unlike Horwath, Schreiner was able to connect with the audience, steering the conversation away from petty squabbles and towards facts and accountability.

Sound Bites of the Debate

• FORD to DEL DUCA: “Under yourself and the former Premier Kathleen Wynne, you destroyed this province. The economy was going downhill quicker than the Canadian bobsled team.”
• DEL DUCA to FORD: “There’s an old saying in life: you’re entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts, Mr. Ford. And the truth of the matter is, you need to stop reading the script that looks like it came out of the fiction section.”
• SCHREINER to FORD: “He will roll out the red carpets for the Amazons of the world and the big box stores of the world, but when it comes to supporting local farmers, he’ll pave over their farmland.”
• HORWATH on FORD: “This is the premier that basically had a tantrum and tore out EV charging stations when he first took office. He tore up green energy contracts when he took office. Now he’s seen the light, perhaps? I somehow doubt it.”
• FORD on the pandemic: “Was everything perfect? No, it wasn’t perfect. But if there was an issue, I’ll get up there, I made the change, I apologized.”
• FORD to DEL DUCA: “Mr. Del Duca, for two and a half years, literally 24-7, I was working on this pandemic. It’s easy to sit back from the sidelines, when you didn’t have to make the tough decisions that I had to make, and criticize. You have the easiest job. You just sit there and criticize.”
• DEL DUCA on Ford’s pandemic track record: “I thought it was shameful that tonight Doug Ford was looking for pity from the people of Ontario as he talked about how hard he’s worked and how tough it’s been over the past couple of years. Doug Ford doesn’t seem to understand that’s the job that he ran for four years ago. You don’t just get to be Premier when it’s parades and sunshine. When you sign up for this job…you have this job in good times, but you also have it in tough times.”