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Month: April 2018

A Budget In Name Only

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It is true that all budgets are political documents, but we learned this week it is not true that all political documents are budgets.

The document tabled by Ontario Finance Minister Charles Sousa this week is so political, so divorced from financial reality, it may not be fair to call it a budget.

With the election a couple of months away and the ruling Wynne Liberals trailing in the polls, plus all the promises contained in the document are contingent on their re-election, it’s appropriate to see this week’s performance as the most political of political exercises.

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne applauds while Ontario Finance Minister Charles Sousa (not pictured) delivers the provincial budget at Ontario’s legislature on March 28, 2018. Ernest Doroszuk/Toronto Sun/Postmedia Network

That is why Sousa’s document should be judged purely for its communication value to the Ontario Liberal Party, rather than on its economic merits. As such, the only real objective of this document is for the Liberals to re-define the ballot question.

All the current polling shows a large number of Ontarians believe it’s “time for a change.” As the incumbent government, this sentiment is pure poison. When people want change, the best you can do as an incumbent party is make the case there is risk in change. And Liberals have decided the easiest way to do that is to offer people so much free stuff that no other party in good conscience would do the same.

With the profligate spending, from free day care, to free prescription drugs, to free this, that and the other thing – the Liberals aim to introduce benefits Ontarians will find so appealing that come election day, they will be compelled to vote Liberal to keep them. Without benefits that change the calculus for voters, without introducing risks against the strong “time-for-a-change” sentiment we see in poll after poll, the Liberals will lose in June.??

Whether the document is judged success or not may have been settled over Easter. Long weekends often play important roles in elections. They offer a break from people’s daily lives, which aren’t spent pondering the merits of government policy, and put them in conversation with family and friends. It’s during the chats over the spiral ham or beer-can turkey where opinions often get solidified, where undecided voters start to make up their minds, and where elections can be won or lost.?

This Easter weekend came far enough ahead of the election that it may not determine the June 7 outcome, but it certainly came at the perfect time to settle whether Ontarians like all the goodies on offer and, perhaps, if they see the Liberals as uniquely positioned to guarantee their delivery.

It would be too cynical to say this document was about buying votes, but it is entirely fair to say it was an attempt to change the ballot-box question and fight the appetite for change that has gripped Ontarians ahead of the fast-approaching election.

Mike Van Soelen is a managing principal at public affairs firm Navigator Ltd., and has served in many roles for Conservative governments at Queen’s Park and in Ottawa.

What’s Not Legal – Part 1: Edibles

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On this episode of Legalized, David sits down with some of the leading minds in the cannabis industry to discuss what’s legal in Bill C-45 and what’s not.
Anne McLellan, former head of the Task Force on Cannabis Legalization and Regulation; Rosy Mondin, CEO of Quadron Cannatech; and Aaron Salz, head of Stoic Advisory, break down the growing market presence of smokeless cannabis and why edibles are illegal under the proposed legislation.

Views expressed do not necessarily represent those of Navigator or its affiliates.

Veering Left Is Right For Kathleen Wynne

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Jaime Watt, who has orchestrated communication strategies behind elections across Canada, is writing a three-part series advising each of the main provincial party leaders on their best path to winning a majority government on June 7. This is Part 3.

This week, Ontario’s Liberals tabled their re-election road map (a.k.a. their budget) in the provincial legislature.

Expansive. Ambitious. Aspirational. Generous. Promises of billions in new spending on a broad sweep of priorities that the Liberals see as essential to maintaining and expanding a fair, inclusive and just society, which might also be essential to their re-election chances.

From free child care for pre-JK kids to dental coverage for Ontarians who don’t have coverage, the budget contained a little bit (or, OK, a lot) of something for everyone.

Pundits reacted how one might expect: by the government’s opponents, who can all but taste victory on June 7, it was decried as a spend-happy and irresponsible budget, a “suicide note” from a tired government in its final days.

Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford decried the budget as a “spending spree” funded by taking money out of the pockets of taxpayers.

Andrea Horwath, who has advanced many of these ideas for years, dismissed it as a last-minute, last-ditch attempt at re-election.

But the document was actually a clever one. Wynne’s Liberals had little strategic choice but to veer sharply left.

They are a government that has run out of room on the right side of the political spectrum. While in Ontario Liberals are often elected with support from moderately conservative voters, in the premier’s case that ship has sailed.

The Ontario Liberals steady leftward march of the last 15 years – commitments to green energy projects, raising the minimum wage and significant overall general spending increases, not to mention the accumulated baggage of being a long-serving government – have closed the door to many of those voters.

That’s why the party must now focus on minimizing the New Democratic vote and turning the election into a black-and-white battle with Ontario’s Conservatives.

Luckily for Wynne, this is authentic and comfortable territory for her. Long before she was elected as a provincial politician, Wynne was a passionate activist on a number of these files, and was well-established on the progressive wing of her party.

And so, the budget represented a declaration that the Ontario Liberals plan to extend this leftward shift, should they be re-elected.

It won’t be an easy task. Polls have repeatedly shown that Wynne has a troublingly low approval rating – far lower than that of Stephen Harper at a similar time, for instance. The party has comparably low polling numbers.

Going into the election, she has a team that has proven effective and capable at her side, which has lost none of its enthusiasm and belief. She has presented a budget her party will be keen to run on.

Given their cards, the Liberals have optimally positioned themselves. Ford is always going to be the advocate for cutting government waste, and so a budget that highlights all of the good things Liberals believe the government can do for Ontarians creates a perfect foil.

It allows Wynne to be the force that believes in the opportunity for government to do good against a guy who just wants to cut.

And it renders Horwath little more than an afterthought.

It is, perhaps, the premier’s only shot: a left-wing coalition that supports a left-wing approach to policies. Seats in urban and Northern Ontario are the bulwark of that coalition.

That said, the Liberals will need some breaks.

To climb out of their current doldrums and to get the attention – and crucially, the consideration of the electorate – Doug Ford will have to stumble and prove he is not yet ready for prime time. Andrea Horwath will have to, once again, fail to connect with voters in a meaningful way.

The election will be decided in two months after a pitched battle over where Ontario’s values truly lie. The Liberals have staked out their position firmly, crisply and clearly.

Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist.