If the June byelections are a precursor to the real showdown, the Conservative leader cannot afford to take this tune-up lightly.
Pierre Poilievre is about to face his greatest test. How he performs could determine not just his future but, just possibly, the country’s.
His first time up at the plate — in a Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection late last year—many concluded Poilievre struck out. That’s one way to see it. But I look at it differently: Poilievre refused to swing the bat—fully aware his efforts would be futile in a Liberal stronghold.
But for the upcoming by-elections in June, that approach just won’t cut it. Indeed, to show he’s not just a capable rhetorician, but an electoral strategist who can succeed where federal Conservatives have recently fallen short, Poilievre must swing for the fences. Question is: is the count in his favour?
Four by-elections, two in Manitoba, one in Ontario, and one in Quebec, all represent unique challenges. And just to set expectations straight, he doesn’t need to win them all just as he is unlikely to.
Rather, Poilievre has a critical opportunity to show he can channel the groundswell of support he achieved in his leadership campaign into a larger movement. Show that he stands for his own distinct vision of Canada, not just opposition to Trudeau and the Liberals.
Some say he needs to bring forward his industrial policy. Others his stand on climate. And, of course, still others want to hear how he plans to address the perennial problems in our health care system.
He has answers to all of these policy matters — and others. But here is where it gets tricky, very tricky, because this is where the communication priorities become difficult for him.
It is clear that Poilievre has found a way to connect with hundreds of thousands, likely now millions, of Canadians on the very issues that matter most to them — food inflation, gas prices, and the staggering cost of everyday life.
Pierre Poilievre is about to face his greatest test. How he performs could determine not just his future but, just possibly, the country’s.
His first time up at the plate — in a Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection late last year—many concluded Poilievre struck out. That’s one way to see it. But I look at it differently: Poilievre refused to swing the bat—fully aware his efforts would be futile in a Liberal stronghold.
But for the upcoming by-elections in June, that approach just won’t cut it. Indeed, to show he’s not just a capable rhetorician, but an electoral strategist who can succeed where federal Conservatives have recently fallen short, Poilievre must swing for the fences. Question is: is the count in his favour?
Four by-elections, two in Manitoba, one in Ontario, and one in Quebec, all represent unique challenges. And just to set expectations straight, he doesn’t need to win them all just as he is unlikely to.
Rather, Poilievre has a critical opportunity to show he can channel the groundswell of support he achieved in his leadership campaign into a larger movement. Show that he stands for his own distinct vision of Canada, not just opposition to Trudeau and the Liberals.
Some say he needs to bring forward his industrial policy. Others his stand on climate. And, of course, still others want to hear how he plans to address the perennial problems in our health care system.
He has answers to all of these policy matters — and others. But here is where it gets tricky, very tricky, because this is where the communication priorities become difficult for him.
It is clear that Poilievre has found a way to connect with hundreds of thousands, likely now millions, of Canadians on the very issues that matter most to them — food inflation, gas prices, and the staggering cost of everyday life.
And in doing so, I am not sure it matters if he connects with those people who are raising the issues they think a responsible politician should be responding to.
But he needs these by-elections because he needs to show he can win across the country. And so, in each, this time he will have to swing for the fences.
In Ontario, he confronts unexpected defiance. Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie, who is stepping down, publicly endorsed a candidate for the Liberal nomination. Although the seat is expected to be a safe hold, this is an unhelpful nuance.
In Quebec, pollsters give the Conservatives a shot at only a few seats. The outgoing Marc Garneau’s riding is not one of them. Although likely unattainable, it’s the effort, the approach, that matters. Gaining even an inch in Quebec always requires a tailored strategy — not merely speaking French.,
If not carefully devised, that strategy can also be a minefield that impedes success elsewhere, as illustrated by the ramping up of anti-immigration rhetoric in the province’s political discourse.
Manitoba bears its own peculiar challenges. Here, Poilievre faces a more extreme faction of firebrand politics with Maxime Bernier running for the PPC. Mercifully, without vaccine mandates to rally around, Bernier’s brand is inching closer to extinction. Forget evolution.
Poilievre should be able to face Bernier down with relative ease. His challenge will be balancing his hardline support in Winnipeg South Centre with the more moderate stance that riding expects.
All things considered, so far Poilievre’s 2023 has been a good one.
A lead in the national polls? Check. Even better, in many, he’s opened up more than a five-point lead.
A healthy and growing war chest? You bet. This year, his Conservatives have raised $8.3 million.
But tangible electoral results? That’s … pending.
So while favourable predictions are nice, and money’s even better, in politics, performance on election day is all that matters.
If these byelections actually are a precursor to the real showdown, Poilievre simply cannot afford to take this tune-up lightly. A lot of things need to go right to hit a home run. But, as Pierre well knows, it starts by swinging hard.
This article first appeared in the Toronto Star on May 22, 2023.
