Prime Minister Mark Carney’s careful march to a majority has reached the coda. With three byelections set for Aug. 31, the Liberals can put to rest the rumblings about their majority status and earn the halo of legitimacy.
These byelections are about both seats and symbolism because of the unprecedented way Carney came to have a majority in the first place: five floor-crossings and a trio of byelection wins. Never before has a Canadian government leapt from minority to majority status outside of a general election. While impressive as a political act, the patchwork approach invited skepticism, even hostility. Is this a true majority government, or a sleight of hand?
Now, voters in the three ridings up for grabs — North Vancouver—Capilano in B.C.; Beaches — East York in Ontario; and Chicoutimi—Le Fjord in Quebec — can clearly survey the political landscape and deliver a verdict. They will either endorse Carney’s hold on power or pull back on the reins. Importantly, in the Conservative-held Quebec riding, they will deliver a verdict by not only choosing a winner, but a loser.
Carney has been clever
First, though, it must be said that the prime minister has been clever about all of this. The chessboard is set.
Carney called the three byelections for the dog days of summer. He only needs to win one to retain his majority and the two in Ontario and B.C. are Liberal strongholds. In B.C., he’s running his own former deputy chief of staff Braeden Caley, capitalizing on that level of experience and Carney’s own popularity.
In Toronto, he nixed the Billy Bishop airport expansion that might have sent left-leaning voters into the waiting arms of the NDP. Carney opted to not yet call a byelection to fill a fourth vacant seat, Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot-Acton in southwest Quebec.
So, over the next month, the Liberals will be free to focus their resources on the real prize: Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, the Quebec seat Conservative MP Richard Martel recently vacated when Carney offered him a Senate appointment. The polling shows the Quebec riding is a three-way toss-up between the Bloc Québécois, the Liberals and the Conservatives. Carney’s Liberals think they can take it, leapfrogging from their third-place finish in the 2025 election.
If they’re right, they’ll return to Ottawa in September with even more swagger than when they left in June. Such a victory would be a clear signal of how big they’ve built their tent, turning a blue seat red despite Carney’s shaky French.
The flip side is what it will mean if the Conservatives lose the seat — whether to the Liberals or to the Bloc. It would be the latest rebuke of Pierre Poilievre’s leadership and send Conservative MPs searching for whatever level of morale is below rock bottom.
The number of Conservatives who think Poilievre can lead them to victory is shrinking. The byelections could prove to be a turning point for more in-depth conversations about who might lead them next, and how that person could capitalize on an opening when it comes.
Liberals in power 14 years
The next federal election is set for the fall of 2029. Donald Trump will be gone from office — setting aside all bluster of a third term. Canadians will check their calendars and see the Liberals will have been in power for 14 years, even longer than the Jean Chrétien-Paul Martin streak of 12.
Conservatives would do well to remember they can look beyond the rank-and-file to choose who leads them. Perhaps they should try fishing in a pond bigger than their caucus room. Canada is full of impressive people who haven’t (yet) entered politics and as Carney has shown, that can be a good thing.
So, look around. Size up who is doing big things in business or philanthropy or elsewhere and might want to serve their country at the highest level. Start a conversation with Fiona McKean, John Ruffalo, Linda Hasenfratz, or Arlene Dickinson.
What Poilievre’s tenure has taught us is that, for better or worse, voters notice how a politician makes them feel. The Conservatives need someone who can expand the tent, and make a diverse coalition feel welcome at the table. Then, the party can start to imagine its own march to a majority.
