People have good reason to doubt the veracity of campaign promises because they have good, abundant evidence that politicians hardly feel honour-bound to keep them.
For many politicians, making promises you can’t keep is as natural as breathing on the campaign trail. In turn, the electorate is conditioned to expect political promises to be like piñatas: designed to be broken.
But it looks like the Donald Trump’s victory may be ushering in a new era.
Exhibit A — Trump’s statement in his victory address on election night: “We will govern by a simple motto: Promises made, promises kept. We’re going to keep our promises.” (Sharp political observers will remember these exact words helped propel former Ontario Conservative leader Mike Harris to two majority governments in Ontario.)
Fooled once (as if one vast helping of humble pie wasn’t enough), his opponents are now clinging to the refuge of an additional fantasy — that it’s still all smoke and mirrors, that he won’t make good on those seemingly terrifying promises.
There is not a cup of coffee in the world strong enough to wake these people up — because there is absolutely zero indication anyone can reasonably cling to this belief. Trump’s ever-running announcements of yet more appointments of the most rabid, radical elements of the MAGA movement to the highest offices of the land is a shotgun blast to these life rafts. Conspiracy enthusiast RFK Jr. as health secretary. Russia enthusiast Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence. Don’t get me started on Matt Gaetz as attorney general.
But I suspect the deeper point is that the 2024 U.S. election represents a larger, more fundamental sea change — a definitive transition from values-based politics to transaction politics.
And there is no better testimony to this shift than Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the difference between the political movement that first swept him into office and the one that is going to blow him out.
In 2015, Trudeau had it all: celebrity, charisma, charm. But more than anything, he spoke to and represented values. The core tenet of Trudeau-ism was politics done, if only notionally, differently.
In 2024, here’s what is crystal clear: people are sick to death of this. What they want delivered is not the talk but the goods. They want prices down. They want criminals in their neighbourhoods locked up.
Simply put, they want results.
What is clearer still is that Canadians believe Trudeau can’t deliver those results.
So, Trump’s victory will do absolutely nothing for Trudeau’s chances in the next election. In fact, it will do the opposite. It will inspire Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s team to keep pursuing the scent they’ve already so sharply picked up: that when life gets tough people desire — not a lecture on political correctness — but a promise on making life affordable. And more than that, a government that they can count on.
But, more importantly, it should do something else too. It should serve as a wake-up call to those who believe in the utter nonsense that Poilievre won’t do or doesn’t mean what he says. Axe the tax. Shutter the CBC. Cut the GST on new homes. He will do these things. And, critically, he’ll do so faster than you expect.
Having served as an MP since 2004, Poilievre’s long record in the House of Commons is often used against him by his critics. They cast him as a permanent politician. But experience is the ultimate teacher. Don’t forget, the early Stephen Harper years were minority governments, and the agenda was largely frustrated by constant deal-making with the opposition parties.
Eventually, Harper got his majority and Poilievre his seat at the cabinet table. But it took precious time to get there.
So, the point is this: should (and it is essentially certain) the Conservatives win a majority, the new government will face a crucial window of opportunity. A mandate to act and not a minute to spare.
Because the 2024 presidential race has underscored the public appetite for results over rhetoric. And, for my money, it is as clear a signal as any that Poilievre will spend zero time on symbolic gestures and all his time delivering on his promises.
