If you’re out walking after a bad storm, you’re liable to come across a few trees with limbs that are just hanging on.
One scintilla of added pressure, one strong gust, and the branch breaks.
This is the fragile reality of Canada’s immigration system today. The storm was entirely of the federal Liberals’ making. The next one will be entirely out of their control.
Canada’s immigration system is buckling under the weight of two critical pressures. One — capacity. Our country has failed to plan for the number of immigrants who have come here in recent years. Second — public sentiment. Now, for the first time in more than a quarter century, a clear majority of Canadians have soured on immigration. They’ve said enough is enough and made it clear there’s been too much, too fast, with insufficient supports.
These cracks are undeniable. So deep that — in a total about-face — the Liberal government has slashed its own immigration targets with a 21 per cent reduction in permanent resident targets for 2025.
Guess what? The Band-Aid solution won’t repair the cracked foundation.
But it gets worse. Because that foundation is about to have an elephant leap on top of it.
You don’t exactly need a crystal ball to predict that when U.S. President-elect Donald Trump assumes office in January, his campaign promise of mass deportations will drive scores of desperate migrants north. And we are in no way, shape, or form prepared to deal with this reality. Not from a policy, humanitarian, or strategic perspective.
Trump kicked off this debacle, not only with his promise of mass deportation but with the accusation last week that — as it stands right now — the problem is the other way around.
“As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing crime and drugs at levels never seen before,” he said. The penalty for our alleged crimes? A 25 per cent tariff “on all products.” On day one of his presidency.
So much for our special relationship.
Predictably, this development sent many of our media and government actors into a frantic tailspin of anxiety and protest. Articles pushed back on the idea that Canada should be equated with Mexico regarding border issues. Immigration Minister Marc Miller explained that there is zero ground for comparison, stating that the flow of migrants entering the U.S. from Canada and those entering from Mexico was “the equivalent on a yearly basis with a significant weekend at the Mexico border.” He continued, “We have a job to not make our problems the Americans’ problems, and they have a job not to make their problems ours.”
And there’s the rub.
He’s right about the facts at our border and the spirit of international co-operation that should underlie them. He is dead wrong about the realpolitik of our relationship with the next President of the United States.
Because for all the supposed people or illicit goods that might flow between our borders, America can handle our “problem,” our traffic — we, on the other hand, cannot even begin to dream of sufficiently handling a mass influx of migrants across our border and into our cities.
We don’t have the resources, space, or public appetite. Moreover, right now, we don’t have clear and focused public discourse on this issue.
We don’t need a sober “reality check” when it comes to this debate. What should be — but evidently is not — abundantly clear to our political class is that Donald Trump will say anything — fact or fiction — to improve his bargaining position and get his way. What we need is a strong plan to reinforce our border. Because that is the only way to prepare and do what we need to do — kill two birds with one stone.
First, to show Trump we’re making progress on a critical political priority for his administration: border security. Second, to prepare for the potential influx of migrants that will look to head to Canada the minute he takes office.
That plan should consist of more drones, helicopters and patrols as the RCMP and our border agency has asked for — but it also must include stricter punishments for the phoney, unauthorized immigration consultants and human traffickers that prey on people’s lives and livelihoods.
Borders are lines in the sand. Symbolic by nature. That’s precisely why they’re such fertile ground for politicians to grandstand, to deceive, to promise then, let down.
It’s also why reinforcing them with action, not words, is what the Canadian public must demand.
