Just prior to the implosion that rocked global financial markets, Lehman Brothers CEO Richard Fuld assured investors his bank’s liquidity and capital profile were rock-solid.
Before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission pursued charges, Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos swore her magic box (the “Edison machine”) was functioning just perfectly.
Hours before their stock tumbled to historic lows, Credit Suisse issued an infamous memo to their staff, claiming total financial stability.
These moments in history come crashing across my mind every time I think of the Democratic Party today and I guarantee that soon, very soon, U.S. President Joe Biden’s “firm” commitment to stay in the race, come hell or high water, will be added to this ignominious list.
So knowing that these strong, declarative statements are doomed to failure from the beginning, why do people keep trying them?
The answer is as simple as it is flawed: it comes from desperation and the belief that any sense of weakness will only hasten the inevitable end.
These things don’t work because, on their face, they contradict what people can see with their own eyes and end up doing the very opposite of what they are intended to achieve.
As a result, Biden’s candidacy to defeat Republican candidate Donald Trump is facing what can best be expressed as a bank run of confidence. Movie stars, left-wing pundits, old-guard Democrats and other influencers are withdrawing support faster than the Biden camp can manage. In fact, the campaign is doing nothing better than merely catching up to a place where the majority of the American electorate has already arrived.
It has grown into a full-blown crisis entirely of the campaign’s, and the candidate’s, own making.
Now, this crisis, as with all crises, comes opportunity, and the bright spotlight of opportunity now falls on Biden’s natural replacement: Vice-President Kamala Harris.
Her positives and negatives have been well documented.
To recap her negatives:
- According to the poll aggregators at Five Thirty Eight, her 37.5 per cent approval rating is barely stronger than Biden’s and is just lower than Trump’s.
- Harris’ 2020 presidential bid — where she dropped out before the first ballot was even cast—was disastrous.
- Her vice-presidential tenure has been, to be charitable, uninspiring where, amongst other disappointments, she failed to make serious progress on the border.
On the positive side:
- Her candidacy provides an opportunity for Democrats to transition from an octogenarian white man to a candidate whose diverse life experience can energize the base and attract new areas of support.
- The election rules enable Harris to inherit the war chest accumulated by the Biden campaign, along with the well-established organization that accompanies it. Both assets are nearly impossible to replicate in the remaining time.
- She would be the most natural recipient of, and benefit from, a Biden endorsement, for whatever it is worth.
- Crucially, Harris also has the ability to align herself with the popular aspects of Biden’s agenda while distancing herself from those less favoured by key voter groups.
But more than anything, Harris is the best option to drive a sharp contrast with Trump on abortion. Not only can she more credibly advocate for reproductive rights, but she is also uniquely positioned to harness the momentum from the Democratic success in the 2022 midterms by making the election a referendum on this issue.
While it is true that successful candidates are not formed in laboratories, if they have the right fundamental makeup, over time the electorate comes to see that, net-net, they are the best choice.
As former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney was fond of saying, he didn’t have to be better than Mother Teresa (thankfully), he just had to be better than his opponent John Turner and he didn’t consider that to be a difficult task!
In 2020, Biden didn’t have to be perfect. He just needed to be a better alternative to Trump, which he proved to be. In 2024, considering her strengths and the current political climate, Harris is not only the stronger alternative but is also better-positioned to clearly define and communicate what that alternative consists of to the American people.
And for that reason, today’s Democrats would be well advised to start highlighting her positives, rather than doing the Republicans’ job for them and only focusing on the negatives.
