Perspectives | Issue 11

Navigator’s folio of ideas, insights and new ways of thinking

Meet the new blue coalition

November 25, 2022

Alex Shiff | Associate Principal

Lauren Armstrong | Associate Principal

Jim Billington | Associate Principal

Philippe Gervais | Managing Principal

Clare Michaels | Associate Principal

Jason Hatcher | Managing Principal

Love him or hate him, Pierre Poilievre’s rise as the new federal Conservative leader speaks to the massive realignment in Canadian politics. Poilievre rode to a landslide victory with a platform characterized by a resurgent emphasis on individual freedoms, resistance to political correctness, and a strong desire for concrete action to make life more affordable.

Poilievre is not just betting on the support of the traditional male blue-collar worker, but the broad-based support of the Canadian working class, many of whom were far from insulated from the impacts of the pandemic. Unlike his Liberal rival, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Poilievre will seek to find and use the unifying sense of anger and helplessness many Canadians still feel in the face of forces beyond their control, whether they are inflation, viruses or hurricanes. From across the country, here is what you need to know about the movement that delivered Poilievre his victory and what it says about the Canadian opinion landscape.

British Columbia

By Alex Shiff

Associate Principal

Metro Vancouver and the Lower Mainland are key to the Conservatives’ victory in British Columbia. Poilievre and his team know this and spent significant time in those areas during the campaign. Poilievre managed to attract large crowds of supporters drawn to his distinctive brand.

Poilievre’s message is uniquely well-suited to win back suburban ridings in B.C. His focus on housing and affordability speaks to B.C.’s millennials, who have seen their standard of living decline as costs climb under Trudeau. Poilievre’s personal story and emphasis on entrepreneurship, freedom of expression and religion has also ingratiated him with immigrant communities that have significant presences in suburban B.C.

British Columbians can expect Poilievre to spend much of his time as leader campaigning in Metro Vancouver and fine-tuning his message to the suburban voters who are key to his path to 24 Sussex.

Alberta

By Lauren Armstrong

Senior Consultant

Albertans see a housing and inflationary crisis looming and are anxious to protect the livability of our major cities. For an incoming leader of the federal Conservative Party, Alberta will always be the heartland, the home base, the source of hundreds of thousands of votes and tens of millions of dollars. But to keep momentum and the funds flowing from Alberta donors, Poilievre, a Calgary native, will need to avoid landmine social issues and extract tangible wins, particularly on pocketbook issues.

At the same time, he’ll need to find a balance between opposing Trudeau’s policies, particularly those that are perceived to hurt the working class, without jeopardizing the areas where business and both the provincial and federal governments co-operate, like on carbon capture and storage. This is the same challenge posed to Alberta’s premiers for decades — talk tough in public and negotiate shrewdly behind closed doors.

Saskatchewan

By Jim Billington

Associate Principal

Saskatchewan lays claim to the title of most conservative province in Canada, with all 14 electoral districts currently represented by Conservative MPs. Poilievre is all but certain to continue the party’s electoral dominance of the province, which is summarily driven by outright disdain for Trudeau and his governing Liberals.

Where previous Conservative leaders saw success railing against key pieces of the Trudeau environmental agenda, Poilievre too will see success. The broader question he faces will be whether he can deliver on the priorities of his many supporters in the “Land of the Living Skies,” a task his two immediate predecessors were unable to achieve.

Political disdain for the Trudeau government has prompted serious discussions around increasing provincial autonomy, preoccupying Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe’s focus of late. Like Québec, Saskatchewan can expect to have an ally in Poilievre in the journey for increased provincial autonomy, leaving the new Conservative leader to balance the demands of his western base with the priorities of voters in other parts of Canada who may have little appetite for entertaining Prairie grievances.

Québec

Par Philippe Gervais

Directeur principal

Quebec is living through a political realignment not seen for generations. Four years ago, François Legault’s new Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) won the province. In the process, he pushed aside two heavyweight parties sharing power since the late 1960s. This was reinforced on Oct. 3, when the CAQ won a landslide re-election with a Montreal-shaped hole in it. Who and what are the forces behind this realignment?

Without question, a growing number of Quebec electors are discontent and feel powerless before traditional political options. Poilievre benefitted from the province’s dissatisfaction with the status quo, helping him beat Jean Charest for the leadership of the federal Conservative Party of Canada. In the eyes of many long-time Quebec conservatives, Charest had been “the one.”

Provincially, Legault’s “protect our own” messaging demonstrates a fragmentation of the electorate, in which voters are increasingly motivated by their regional identities and by their rejection of federal overreach. Poilievre has a natural opportunity to ramp up criticism of Ottawa’s interventionist management style while maintaining connection with the guiding principles of the CPC.

National and international businesses have the challenge of responding to this realignment with strategic engagement that respects the unique identity and culture of Quebeckers. Those who fail to do so may see themselves cast away, along with the old guard of Quebec politics.

Ontario

By Clare Michaels

Associate Principal

Poilievre would do well to learn from the successes of populist Doug Ford. For businesses, that means a Poilievre-led party may be less concerned about what big employers think about party policies and more interested in what their workers think.

The Ford government has recognized the need to put fiscal conservatism on the back burner to address major systemic issues, especially those hurting working-class Ontarians. That ever-lengthening list includes inflation, hallway health care, and building out transit and highway networks to fight gridlock.

Ford’s victories in 2018 and 2022 were largely due to a concerted effort to woo those hit hardest by such issues, including the traditional enemies of conservatives — unionized workers. While Ford accumulated an impressive list of union endorsements, he also showed an uncanny ability to go around union leaders and reach members directly with pragmatic ideas on and off the jobsite.

Ford has exposed a major realignment in union politics where existing orthodoxies and ways of thinking are no longer safe. Canadian business leaders have a timely opportunity to make similar gains, finding common ground around policies and initiatives that create development opportunities and the skilled jobs that accompany them.

Atlantic Canada

By Jason Hatcher

Managing Principal

Atlantic Canada is often forgotten in the federal political calculus given the region holds a fraction of the seats other provinces do. In 2015, Trudeau swept the region, winning all 32 seats. Since then, the Conservative Party of Canada has attempted to rebuild support in the area, but only recaptured eight seats in the last election.

In terms of social attitudes, the archetype of the anti-lockdown, pro-freedom (and consequently pro-Poilievre) new conservative mould holds little weight here. Atlantic Canadians have a unique cultural landscape and, without harsh lockdowns in the “Atlantic Bubble,” the electorate has emerged from the pandemic far less divided than other parts of the country.

On the economic front, energy is a burning issue for most Atlantic Canadians. To win Atlantic Canada, Poilievre must present a more inclusive energy policy that finds synergies and alliances between the east and the west akin to what we saw in the early 1980s. To regain what was lost in 2015, Poilievre will need a strategy that goes beyond renouncing economic barriers to articulate concrete opportunities for people who often feel overlooked by the federal government.

About the authors:

Alex Shiff | Associate Principal

Alex Shiff is a crisis communications and public affairs expert with a decade of experience managing complex challenges for leaders in government and the private sector.

As an Associate Principal in Navigator’s Vancouver office, Alex leads the firm's practice in British Columbia, specializing in issues management, media training and public affairs campaigns for prominent organizations and individuals.

Prior to joining Navigator, Alex served as an advisor to British Columbia's Minister of Environment, where he provided strategic political and policy advice on major issues ranging from the Kinder Morgan pipeline to the Pan-Canadian Framework on Climate Change.

A sought-after pundit and political commentator, Alex can often be heard on radio, television and podcasts, providing his take on the news of the day.

Lauren Armstrong | Associate Principal

Lauren is an associate principal with more than a decade of experience serving in various management and communications roles in the federal, provincial and municipal governments.

Prior to joining Navigator, Lauren was Chief of Staff to Alberta’s Minister of Children’s Services, where she helped support Alberta’s child care sector and families involved with the Child Intervention system through the COVID-19 pandemic. She also served as press secretary to federal Conservative Ministers of Transport and National Defence and Chief of Staff to a municipal councillor in Calgary. Previously, Lauren worked for a regulatory engagement firm specializing in consultation on renewable energy projects and public utilities.

A graduate of the University of Alberta, Lauren has led proactive communications, media relations and issues management on various high profile and sensitive files provincially and nationally. She volunteered on her first campaign at age 16 and has worked continuously on election campaigns since then.

Jim Billington | Associate Principal

Jim Billington is an Associate Principal in Navigator's Calgary office. He has extensive experience advising premiers, cabinet ministers, and political parties throughout Western Canada. As Associate Principal, Jim leads client files and provides strategic advice in the areas of communications, issues and crisis management, and government relations.

Prior to joining Navigator, Jim served as Deputy Chief of Staff and Executive Director of Communications to the Premier of Saskatchewan, where he led communications for the province's COVID-19 response, oversaw government media relations and strategic communications, and managed stakeholder relations and international engagement. In 2019 and 2020, he managed national communications efforts as Communications Chair for the Council of the Federation.

Jim has previously served as a ministerial Chief of Staff in the governments of Saskatchewan and Alberta and worked as Executive Assistant to Alberta Premier Jim Prentice.

Jim also brings significant campaign experience to his role at Navigator. In 2020, Jim directed communications for the Saskatchewan Party in a majority provincial election campaign. Prior to that, Jim played key roles in multiple provincial leadership campaigns, seeing two party leaders elected as premiers.

Jim holds a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Calgary and has received executive education in Finance from the Ivey Business School. He lives in Calgary with his wife and two daughters, though they remain proud members of Rider Nation.

Philippe Gervais | Managing Principal

As the Managing Principal for the Montreal office, Philippe brings over 25 years of experience of strategic advice to politicians, corporate executives and not-for-profit sector decision makers.

Philippe has distinguished himself in the fields of government relations, strategic advice and campaign planning and execution at the national and international levels. He provides strategic advice and communications counsel to Navigator clients in sectors such as energy, environment, mergers and acquisitions and international trade.

He has played key roles in political campaigns both here in Canada and abroad, including US Presidential campaigns. During the 2006 election, he served as National Deputy Campaign Manager for the Conservative Party of Canada.

Prior to joining Navigator Philippe ran the Quebec operations of a national government relations firm for 22 years. From 1990 to 1993, he worked for the Minister of National Revenue as Special Assistant responsible for the implementation of the GST. His government service continued with positions as Executive Assistant to the Federal Minister of Public Works and Government Services and then as Political Attaché to the Deputy Premier and President of Treasury Board of Quebec.

Philippe currently is a member of the board of directors of many organizations including the not-for-profit MITACS where he Chairs the Audit Committee and H2O Innovation Inc. (TSXV: HEO) as Chairman of the Board of one of Canada’s fastest growing clean tech companies.

Clare Michaels | Associate Principal

Clare is an Associate Principal in Navigator’s Toronto office.

Clare previously served as the Director of Strategic Communications and Principal Writer for the Premier of Ontario. During the COVID-19 pandemic, she supported the Premier through over 200 daily press conferences on the government’s response to the pandemic to ensure Ontarians stayed safe and informed. She also worked closely with two of Ontario’s Finance Ministers to script the government’s communications through provincial budgets and fall economic statements during her time in public service.

As a professional wordsmith, Clare helps senior executive officers and political decision-makers craft the right words to say at critical moments in their careers. From speeches to communication strategies to public affairs campaigns, she brings extensive experience and insight to a breadth of clients from different industries and sectors. She also continues to play an active role in the political process at the provincial and federal levels.

Clare currently serves on the Board of Directors for Participation House Durham, a non-profit organization serving youth and adults with physical and developmental disabilities.

Clare holds a master’s degree from the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto and a bachelor’s degree from the University of Ottawa.

Jason Hatcher | Managing Principal

Jason Hatcher is the Managing Principal of Navigator and leads the Western Canadian operations from Calgary. He specializes in strategic communications, media relations, issues management, and government relations.

Before joining Navigator, Jason was the co-founder and president of a successful public relations firm in Calgary, emerging as one of Canada’s leading professionals in the field of strategic communications.

For over 20 years, he has worked at the provincial and federal levels of government advising Premiers in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. He has also advised Canadian Cabinet Ministers and political leaders and parties across the country in areas concerning campaign and election strategy, media relations and public policy.

As a media commentator on public policy, government and politics, Jason has appeared regularly on national and regional public affairs programming.

In his role as Managing Principal of Navigator’s Western Canadian operations, Jason leads business development for the region while also managing a team in three offices (Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver). He works with clients in the telecommunications, technology, health, agriculture, finance and energy sectors to enhance their public profiles through communication, stakeholder consultation, and government advocacy strategies.

Originally from St. John’s, Newfoundland, Jason’s English and French bilingual education covered political science, business and law.

As a community leader and passionate volunteer, Jason believes it is important for people to be involved and give back to their community. He is current Board Chair of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce as well as Board Chair for United Way Centraide which comprises 80 community-based organizations and the National Office. Additionally, Jason is the past Board Chair at United Way of Calgary and a board member for three privately owned corporations.

Jason lives in Calgary with his wife and two children and their two Labrador retrievers, Mac and Brigus.

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