It’s all at stake: In conversation with Bruce Heyman

The 2024 U.S. Election is being billed as the most consequential in modern American history, so what should Canadians be looking for? Former U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Bruce Heyman, gives three things Canadians should keep an eye on.

Canadians are used to watching U.S. presidential elections closely, and this year is no different, as we watch our closest ally conclude one of its most suspenseful races in recent history. Our economies and cultures are intertwined, and many of us have close family in the U.S. But above all, every major decision made in Washington D.C., is felt on Parliament Hill.

The relationship has not been without its challenges over the decades.

As Prime Minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau once said to U.S. President Richard Nixon, “living with you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast…one is affected by every twitch and grunt.”

Or, as the late comedian Robin Williams put it — somewhat more colourfully, Canada is “like a really nice apartment over a meth lab.”

So as election night approaches, we wanted to hear from a true insider on U.S. elections and politics. Bruce Heyman, who served as the U.S. Ambassador to Canada from 2014-2017, gave us his unvarnished predictions of what we can expect and what’s at stake on November 5th.

It’s a race to 270

The Electoral College consists of 538 electors, and a candidate needs to win 270 electoral college votes to win. Nearly forty of the fifty U.S. states have voted for the same presidential party for the last four elections. They are deemed to be solidly red and blue. So that means 80 per cent of states are locked in, and candidates are focusing on 20 per cent of states, which is ten, and I think the reality is that we’re focusing on seven:

Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

The first thing Canadians must know is this race is likely to be very, very, very close. It may very well be decided by a handful of votes in a handful of counties in a handful of states.

I would say conventional wisdom is as Pennsylvania goes, so does the presidency goes.

A second Trump term would be unpredictable, transactional, and filled with retribution

I think bilateral relations between the U.S. and Canada would be at risk, based on domestic policies of the United States. Economically for Canada, if Trump imposes tariffs on all imported goods, it would be very stressful economically, and difficult for the Canadian economy. And then of course, you’d say, ‘well, what do we do?’.

Canada might respond, and then he responds. You effectively end up in a trade war.

Environmentally, he’ll probably dismantle much of the programs put in place to move us to alternative fuels and sustainability. But I think businesses and institutions will still move in that direction.

Domestically, I think he’ll cause a lot of fear in immigrant communities. He says he’ll round up and deport 11,000,000 undocumented immigrants – but he doesn’t actually have to do that to make 11,000,000 people freak out. Fair warning to Canada, if you thought you had a problem at Roxham Road with migrants in the last Trump administration, wait until you see what happens if he starts to round people up from Latin and Central America all over the U.S. I don’t think they sit around and wait, and I don’t think the run south. Similarly, if Trump puts significant restrictions on women’s access to choice, they could very well run north as well.

An election of utmost consequence

I actually believe in my heart of hearts that this is one of the most consequential elections of my lifetime.

The direction of our country is at a knife’s edge.

How people have differences are treated whether it’s religious, or sexual orientation or gender, or where you were from, your background, your skin colour – it’s a potentially incredibly dangerous moment for our country.

Now, I’m hopeful that many Americans look over the cliff and see how dark and scary it is and step back and make the right decisions.