It doesn’t matter your political persuasion. Tuesday morning, Canada did not get the headline it very much needed.
That headline would have trumpeted an expression of firm resolve and electoral clarity. It would have been supported by the usual language of triumph: “decisive victory,” “clear mandate,” “stable majority.”
Pick your phrase. But almost anything would have been better than what we got.
A country divided. A mandate diluted. A political leash far too short at a moment we need full stride.
Of course, the people have spoken and there’s no arguing with that. But now Prime Minister Mark Carney must make do with it — and transform it into something bolder and more workable than it appears.
Because what matters, first, is how that headline is interpreted by one man: Donald Trump.
At first glance, it might seem easy to overstate the importance of majority rule when facing the orange menace to the south.
Sure, it matters to Carney’s ability to govern and the stability of his rule.
But to Trump? A man who probably doesn’t know the difference between the House of Commons and House of Cards — is he really going to parse the nuances of a Westminster minority?
Of course not.
But here’s the difference he does understand: strength vs. weakness.
Trump not only knows something about that — that’s all he really cares about. And more importantly, he knows how to skilfully exploit weakness. And that means Carney must fight like hell to wash off its scent — and do it fast.
In an ideal world, before he sits across the table from Trump to negotiate on behalf of our sovereignty and prosperity, he needs to negotiate a deal here at home — to ensure he shows up with a united front and a functioning government.
Why? You don’t enter a heavyweight title match with your gloves half-laced.
Given the signals the two will meet as early as next week, there won’t be time for that, which only means that Carney will need every bit of his own negotiating skills to get what he needs from that meeting.
And, of course, it’s not just about foreign policy. Carney’s ambitious domestic agenda — on housing, energy, trade, productivity — depends on more than bold vision. It requires a functioning Parliament. Without one, the whole platform is just a pamphlet.
That’s why the next step demands ruthless political calculation.
The good news? He has options.
The bad news? None are easy.
But he has to try.
Let’s take a look — ranked from most effective to least feasible.
1. Convince NDP MPs to cross the floor
It’s unlikely, I’m told. In the style of a last stand, those who remain are true believers.
But politics is full of improbable deals. And the pitch to NDP MPs is simple and could be effective:
Door one — sit against the curtains in lonely opposition, stripped of official party status, wielding marginal leverage in a hostile House.
Door two — cross the floor, join the government, and be rewarded. Committee posts. Cabinet slots. A starring role in a moment of national challenge. Sacrifice the purity of ideology for country.
2. Offer the NDP official party status in exchange for a supply-and-confidence agreement
Not a majority. Not forever.
But a workable governing arrangement to shore up confidence and provide political cover.
3. Name a non-Liberal speaker
In short, a Liberal speaker reduces the government’s voting bloc to 168, meaning Carney would need support from four opposition MPs to pass legislation. But if the speaker comes from outside Liberal ranks, the government holds 169 votes — needing only three.
4. Build pragmatic, issue-by-issue alliances
Unstable, complex, and far from ideal — but sometimes, political longevity is about buying time. Carney may need to pursue legislative wins through tactical co-operation with the Bloc, independents, or dissenting voices in other parties.
He must also be ruthlessly pragmatic with Western MPs of all affiliations — recognizing that many will pose the fiercest opposition to elements of his agenda. On files with potential cross-partisan appeal, he’ll need to think less like a partisan and more like a dealmaker by looking at the individual interests of MPs.
A minority government isn’t just unstable — it’s dangerous in the current climate.
Trump reads weakness like a headline and sees it as an invitation.
This isn’t politics as usual. It’s power politics.
And Canada not only requires strength — it must project it.
Now.
