The 2024 British Columbia election on October 19 confirmed the province is firmly divided, with no clear winner emerging between David Eby’s NDP or John Rustad’s upstart Conservatives. Nearly half the electorate voted Conservative for the first time in generations, while the other half backed the NDP. Remarkably, the Greens, with just two MLAs and no official leader, emerged as the most powerful brokers in forming the next government.
Deadlock Between NDP and Conservatives as Province Awaits Vote Count
Amid a torrential rainstorm that caused flash flooding in the lower mainland, Saturday’s election upheld the province’s reputation for political drama. After seven years in power, the NDP suffered a stunning blow by the Conservative Party, which last ran a full slate of candidates in 1960. Independents split the vote in at least two ridings, paving the way for the NDP candidates to win those seats. The Green Party retained official status, but its leader Sonia Furstenau lost her seat to the NDP after switching ridings. The NDP and Conservatives both fall narrowly short of the 47 seats needed to form a majority in the 93-seat legislature:
- NDP: 46 seats
- Conservatives: 45 seats
- Greens: 2 seats
Key Ridings to Watch
Margins were razor-thin in numerous constituencies with at least 11 ridings too close for media to call. The NDP led in six, while the Conservatives held the lead in five. Two automatic recounts are already set, with petitions likely to trigger more, particularly in three closely contested ridings where the Conservatives narrowly lost. While recounts seldom have a material effect on election results, this election might be the exception, despite use of electronic tabulators to initially count ballots. Ridings of note:
- Surrey City Centre and Juan de Fuca-Malahat: The NDP leads by fewer than 100 votes (96 and 23 votes respectively), triggering automatic recounts due by Oct. 28.
- Kelowna Centre: The Conservatives hold a slim lead of just 142 votes, making a recount likely.
- Coquitlam-Burke Mountain: The NDP leads by 268 votes, likely also leading to a recount.
Uncertain Path Forward as Parties Scramble for Majority
The landscape remains highly uncertain, and neither leader delivered a concession speech Saturday night. Expect lots of jockeying, courting and wheeling and dealing as the counting takes place over the next eight days. One party has to secure enough votes to form a government, and/or a supply-confidence deal with the Greens to provide stability to govern.
For now, the NDP will continue to serve as the caretaker government until the formation of a new government. It could take weeks as negotiations unfold.
NDP (46 Seats): Retain Power Through Key Alliances
As the incumbent, the NDP has several paths:
- Negotiate with the Greens: Likely their best option, similar to their 2017 deal, but the Greens will demand major policy concessions, especially on climate issues.
- Secure a Speaker: They could stabilize their position by getting the Speaker role.
- Cross-party support: Though unlikely, they could try to convince opposition members to switch sides.
Conservative Party (45 Seats): New Contender with Limited Options
The Conservatives’ path is more difficult but not impossible:
- Recounts: The party will push for recounts in close ridings, which could shift the balance.
- Challenge NDP’s right to govern: Expect Rustad to fight hard, opposing NDP attempts at forming a government.
- Negotiate with Greens: Unlikely due to policy clashes, but desperation may prompt concessions.
Green Party (2 Seats): Kingmaker in a Tight Race
The Greens two MLAs hold the balance of power. They could:
- Support the NDP: More ideologically aligned, they could back the NDP in exchange for policy wins.
- Support the Conservatives: This would be challenging due to policy conflicts, particularly on climate.
- Remain neutral: The Greens could stay independent, keeping leverage over key votes of confidence that could bring down any government.
Cabinet Potential
While awaiting the Greens’ decision, key leaders and potential cabinet picks to watch for are:
NDP to Watch
When the writ was dropped, 25 per cent of NDP cabinet ministers chose not to seek re-election. Of those who ran, all but three were re-elected and will likely play key roles if the NDP forms government. Ones to watch include:
- Mike Farnworth (Public Safety and Solicitor General)
- Adrian Dix (Health)
- Josie Osborne (Energy)
- Grace Lore (Children and Family Services)
- Bowinn Ma (Emergency Management and Climate Readiness)
- George Chow (Citizens’ Services)
- Ravi Kahlon (Housing)
- Jennifer Whiteside (Mental Health and Addictions)
- Brenda Bailey (Jobs and Economic Development)
- Anne Kang (Municipal Affairs)
- Lisa Beare (Post-Secondary Education)
Conservatives To Watch
The only incumbents on the Conservative side are former BC United/Liberal MLAs with cabinet-minister experience. These few have potential to be leaders within the party under Rustad, including:
- Elenore Sturko, Surrey-Cloverdale
- Bruce Banman, Abbotsford-South (Shadow Minister Emergency Management, Climate Readiness and Citizens’ Services)
- Gavin Dew, Kelowna-Mission (Ran for BC Liberal Leadership in 2022)
- Lorne Doerkson, Cariboo-Chilcotin (Defected to Tories and served as Third-Party Caucus Chair)
- A’aliya Warbus, Chilliwack-Cultus (star candidate and daughter of former BC Lieutenant-Governor Steven Point)
Record-Breaking Advanced Voter Turnout
Amidst the uncertainty, one thing that’s for sure is the high level of public and voter engagement in following the results. More than one million people, or 28 per cent of registered voters, set a record at the advanced polls. It was also the first time the province used a new electronic voting system. Overall turnout reached just over 57 per cent, showing an improvement from the 54 per cent in 2020, though still lower than the 61 per cent seen in 2017.
Have any questions about the BC Election? Please reach out to our political experts at info@navltd.com.
