COVID-19 Monitor

Last Updated:October 15, 2020

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Congress Shovels Trillions at Virus, With No Endgame in Sight (NY Times) Published on: April 25, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

There is a growing list of detailed plans for how the federal government can bring the United States economy safely out of lockdown and back on a path to normalcy amid the coronavirus pandemic. Congress isn’t following any of them.
Instead, lawmakers who have spent the past two months rushing to respond to a public health and economic emergency with a series of ever-larger, taxpayer-financed spending packages appear to be locked in a reactive cycle, as the toll and financial costs of the virus mount.
The Congressional Budget Office said Friday that it expects economic pain from the crisis to persist for years to come, even though it believes activity will begin to rebound in the second half of the year.

Get Ready for 60-cent Loonie and Canada Downgrades, Rosenberg Warns (Bloomberg) Published on: April 24, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business, Economic Impact

Canada’s currency will depreciate sharply and its credit rating will suffer as the federal government is forced to “backstop everyone,” rolling out more assistance for provinces, companies and households, according to economist David Rosenberg.
The country is “likely facing a series of downgrades” to its AAA rating, given that the total debt in the economy is already an unprecedented 350% of GDP, he said.
“It will be interesting to see how a central bank that does not govern over the world’s reserve currency and a country with a massive balance-of-payments deficit will be able to have all of this largesse find its way onto the BoC balance sheet” without jeopardizing global investor confidence, he said.

Coronavirus: This is where all 50 states stand on reopening (The Mercury News) Published on: April 24, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

More than 97% of the US population is currently under a stay-at-home or shelter-in-place order as the coronavirus pandemic continues to upend life as we know it. But worries for the economy — and people’s mental health — are raising the question: When will things go back to normal?
This article has the latest on where states stand in their plans to reopen.
Alabama: Gov. Kay Ivey says the existing stay at home order will remain in effect until April 30th.

What COVID-19 means for food systems and meat packing (iPolitics.ca) Published on: April 24, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business

The most immediate impact of these plants shutting down will be on the farmers who depend on these plants as their primary way of accessing markets.
Not only are these plants difficult to reconfigure for social isolation, these plants often bus workers from urban centres and so while the plants need to be built outside of the city, they also need a lot of workers from within the city.
Over the next few months, therefore, disruptions in the food supply chain is likely to primarily hurt farm incomes and lead to food price inflation that affects lower income Canadians, and folks who have seen wages decline, the most.

Leading With Your Head and Your Heart (MIT Sloan Management Review) Published on: April 24, 2020 | Category: Leadership

CEOs who manage emergencies using emotion as well as logic and intuition find the best results in the short term and the long.
Functional smart leaders rely on their survival instincts. Focused on the bottom line, they do whatever it takes to keep their companies afloat.
A smaller number — just 10% — navigated crises by relying instead on context-aware intelligence to benefit society at large. Rather than simply reacting to — or leveraging — an emergency, these leaders consciously used intuition, logic, and their emotions to choose appropriate responses.

The risk of a US double-dip depression is real (FT) Published on: April 23, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

If you think one lockdown is painful enough, imagine a second.
Economists point out that the US is not even in a recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Yet JPMorgan forecasts that the US economy will shrink by 40 per cent in the second quarter.

Why easing COVID-19 restrictions will present challenges between provinces (CBC) Published on: April 23, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business

Infectious disease experts say provinces looking to relax restrictions related to COVID-19 need to consider their neighbours.
“Many provinces in Canada have no hard borders,” said Dr. Craig Jenne, an infectious disease researcher at the University of Calgary in an interview with The Canadian Press. “Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba — we are not exactly islands where we can cut off travel between provinces.”
Premier Scott Moe said travel was the source of many of the province’s early COVID-19 cases.

More Cooking, Less Shampooing: The Coronavirus Consumer Starts to Emerge (WSJ) Published on: April 23, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

Consumers are cooking and cleaning more while spending less time and money on grooming and makeup, consumer-products companies say, as a picture emerges of how the coronavirus is reshaping lifestyles.
Procter & Gamble Co. last week said Americans were doing more laundry loads every week, washing garments after each wearing.
Makeup giant L’Oréal last week said the global cosmetics market was down 8% in the first quarter as consumers pull back on skin care and beauty products.

Canada Post sees ‘Christmas-level’ package volumes during COVID-19 (CityNews) Published on: April 23, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business, Economic Impact

The postal service says it delivered more than 1.8 million parcels to Canadians on Monday, similar to the biggest delivery days it sees during the holiday season.
Canada Post is advising customers to expect delays because it takes longer to process the heavy, incoming parcel volumes.

Investors worry Canada’s most promising startups will be left out of BDC’s emergency fund-matching program (The Logic) Published on: April 23, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business

BDC Capital has allocated $150 million for a bridge-financing program meant to help Canadian startups weather the COVID-19 pandemic, but investors say it isn’t enough—and that the program’s terms are too prohibitive to address the sweeping need companies face as venture capital retreats from the economy.
Of particular concern to VCs is the interest rate—BDC will collect four per cent interest on its co-investments, plus its floating interest rate, which currently sits at 4.5 per cent.
One VC who spoke on condition of anonymity said one of their portfolio companies estimated BDC could walk away with as much as 25 per cent of their company under one of the scenarios the firm had laid out.

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