COVID-19 Monitor

Last Updated:October 15, 2020

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The U.S. Economy Was Laden With Debt Before Covid. That’s Bad News for a Recovery. (WSJ) Published on: October 1, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

The coronavirus brought an end to the longest economic expansion in U.S. history.
Economies carrying a lot of debt generally have weaker recoveries. Businesses and consumers focus on cutting their liabilities during downturns rather than spending cash—and spending is what an economy needs to rebound.
The most important piece of a recovery is consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of the U.S. economy. High household debt levels tend to lengthen recessions and amplify their severity, according to a study of advanced economies over 30 years by researchers at the International Monetary Fund.

Now at the Boarding Gate: Coronavirus Tests (NY Times) Published on: September 30, 2020 | Category: Global Response

Airlines and airports are offering the tests as a way for travelers whose results are negative to avoid quarantines at their destinations, and to revive travelers’ faith in flying.
American initially will test people traveling to international destinations, starting with people traveling from Miami International Airport to Jamaica.
Tampa International Airport is the first airport in the United States to offer the tests and they will be available to passengers flying on any airline.

Luxury brands bank on a raring China market as COVID-19 pandemic lays waste to global demand (Channel News Asia) Published on: September 30, 2020 | Category: Global Response

With the COVID-19 pandemic having sent most of the world’s luxury spending into a tailspin and China the only major economy expected to show growth this year, high-end brands now depend more than ever on Chinese consumers like Zeng for sales.
Driven by well-heeled consumers forsaking their usual overseas trips to places like Milan and Paris as well as pent-up demand that built during lockdown, spending in China on luxury goods has surged.
As luxury spending in China reaches new heights for some brands, the Chinese are set to account for around half of all global spending on high-end brands in 2020, up from 37 per cent last year, according to McKinsey & Company.

COVID-19 has left B.C. nurses emotionally exhausted, anxious and depressed: survey (Times Colonist) Published on: September 30, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business

About 86 per cent of nurses say they’re extremely concerned about bringing COVID-19 home, and 80 per cent think they’ll contract it on the job.
“When I see these numbers, [I think], What does that do to nurses’ decisions to stay at work?’ We already know there’s a shortage of nurses in the province.”
About 41 per cent of nurses said they believed there had been poor transparency around organizational pandemic decisions and 27 per cent said they had experienced changes to COVID-19-related protocols on a daily, or more frequent, basis.

Troubled pandemic rent subsidy program expires today — and there’s no replacement ready (CBC) Published on: September 30, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business

CECRA covered up to six months of rent by extending forgivable loans for up to half the value of the monthly rent, in exchange for the landlord cutting rent.
Tenants participating in the program would still have to chip in 25 per cent of their pre-pandemic rent, while their landlords were expected to accept a 25 per cent loss on total rent paid.
But now, as September draws to a close, the program is coming to an end with no replacement on the horizon. That worries landlords and tenants alike.

Why, despite the coronavirus pandemic, house prices continue to rise (The Economist) Published on: September 30, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

During the global recession a decade ago, real house prices fell by an average of 10%, wiping trillions of dollars off the world’s largest asset class.
In August house prices in Germany were 11% higher than the year before; rapid growth in South Korea and parts of China has prompted the authorities to tighten rules for buyers.
Central bankers around the world have cut policy rates by two percentage points on average this year, reducing the cost of mortgage borrowing. Americans can take out a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at an annual interest rate of just 2.9%, down from 3.7% at the beginning of the year.

Winter is coming: What’s next in COVID-19 testing (McKinsey) Published on: September 30, 2020 | Category: Global Response

Sufficient testing capacity is widely recognized as critical to managing COVID-19 and minimizing further outbreaks, as noted by the World Health Organization.
It is imperative to effectively and efficiently identify micro-outbreaks early. To do so requires a testing capacity and contact-tracing infrastructure that could be rapidly applied to a single region.
If an outbreak causes paralysis in society or the economy, sometimes testing large parts of the asymptomatic population can help to rebuild trust. Widespread testing also provides the data on which to base policy decisions.

Disney to Cut 28,000 Resort Jobs in U.S. (NY Times) Published on: September 29, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

For six months, Disney has kept tens of thousands of theme park workers on furlough with full health-care benefits in hopes that a light at the end of the pandemic tunnel would appear.
The company said it would eliminate 28,000 theme park jobs in the United States, or about 25 percent of its domestic resort work force.
About 67 percent of the layoffs will involve part-time jobs that pay by the hour.

U.S. Retail Bankruptcies, Store Closures Hit Record in First Half (WSJ) Published on: September 29, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

Retail bankruptcies, liquidations and store closings in the U.S. reached records in the first half of 2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated industry changes, particularly the shift to online shopping, according to a report on the downturn’s severity.
In the first six months, 18 retailers filed for chapter 11 protection, mostly concentrated in apparel and footwear, home furnishings, grocery and department stores, BDO said.
“I don’t think it’s going to stop anytime soon,” said Andy Graiser, co-president of commercial real-estate advisory firm A&G Real Estate Partners, who advises Tailored Brands, Ascena, Neiman Marcus and Stein Mart, among others.

Another Reason for a Lukewarm Holiday Season: Shoppers Are Bummed Out (Adweek) Published on: September 29, 2020 | Category: Global Response

Over 60% of Americans say the pandemic has soured their attitudes toward gift buying.
Now comes news of another possible reason why this holiday season likely won’t have many retailers making merry: Consumers, emotionally worn down from months of pandemic living, simply aren’t looking forward to the holidays.
This is among the notable findings of a survey of 1,000 U.S. consumers released today by Iterable.
Two years into the Great Recession of 2008, for example, 40% of consumers reported spending less on holiday gifts, according to a Marist poll.

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