COVID-19 Monitor

Last Updated:October 15, 2020

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Unprecedented damage by COVID-19 requires an unprecedented policy response (Brookings) Published on: July 10, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

Despite the overwhelming fiscal and monetary policy support, this year the pandemic is expected to trigger the deepest global recession since World War II, with global GDP contracting by 5.2 per cent, as reported in our latest Global Economic Prospects report.
The pandemic is also projected to lead the most synchronized global downturn on record, with per capita incomes shrinking in the largest fraction of countries since 1870.
Deep recessions triggered by the pandemic are likely to leave lasting scars through multiple channels, including lower investment, erosion of the human capital of the unemployed, and a retreat from global trade and supply linkages.

The Upside of Virtual Board Meetings (HBR) Published on: July 10, 2020 | Category: Leadership

While most boards are still finding that balance, a number of fast-adapting companies have found that virtual board meetings are better than the real thing.
The experience of sitting around a big table can be vastly different depending on where you’re sitting relative to the main speakers. With Zoom, you can see everyone’s faces and eyes right in front of you, which has a huge impact on focus, connection, and ultimately decision-making.
eBay recently conducted part of its CEO search entirely online and was able to reach a successful conclusion much more rapidly and efficiently than the four to six months typical of major CEO searches.

Tyson Turns to Robot Butchers, Spurred by Coronavirus Outbreaks (WSJ) Published on: July 9, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

Tyson, the biggest U.S. meat company by sales, currently relies on about 122,000 employees to churn out about 1 in every 5 pounds of chicken, beef and pork produced in the country. The work at Tyson’s Manufacturing Automation Center, which opened in August 2019, is speeding the shift from human meat cutters to robotic butchers.
Over the past three years, Tyson has invested about $500 million in technology and automation. Chief Executive Noel White said those efforts likely would increase in the aftermath of the pandemic.
Roughly 585,000 people work in U.S. meatpacking plants. Plant workers cycle in and out of jobs rapidly, with annual turnover in meat plants ranging from 40% to 70%, according to Boston Consulting Group, versus an overall 31% average for manufacturers.

The Recessionals: why coronavirus is another cruel setback for millennials (FT) Published on: July 9, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

Yet, amid the economic onslaught that coronavirus has wrought, it is those under 40 who have suffered the biggest economic blow.
As governments begin to plot a path out of the crisis, generational redistribution is likely become one of the dominant political themes.
Having now watched them suffer two economic cataclysms in just over a decade, there will be strong pressure for older generations to repay the favour and help millennials get back on their feet.
The financial crisis shaped the views of millennials in ways that are already driving politics on both sides of the Atlantic, including the greater willingness of younger people to refer to themselves as socialists.

Some economies are bouncing back. But recoveries can easily go wrong (The Economist) Published on: July 9, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

Our analysis shows just how fragile consumer confidence can be.
No one knows for sure yet who has fared well or badly. GDP data for the second quarter are not yet available, and in any case will probably be subject to large revisions over time, as is often the case in downturns.
The lifting of lockdowns is now boosting economic activity. By how much, however, varies from country to country. Real-time activity data suggest that America and Spain are laggards, not only in terms of visits to restaurants but also to workplaces and public-transport stations.

Canadian fintechs hope U.S. pandemic partnerships will set an example at home (The Logic) Published on: July 9, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business

The pandemic has pushed the American banking ecosystem to look to fintechs to provide agility. In Canada that hasn’t happened, with fintechs largely kept out of the delivery of COVID-19 relief programs.
While other countries like the U.S., U.K. and Australia have turned to digital upstarts to help transform their banking systems during the pandemic, Canada has not responded in kind because of a worrying lack of political will to create a competitive and open and risk-based financial system.
Corey Gross, CEO of Sensibill, a Toronto fintech that uses AI to digitize financial management that works with hundreds of financial institutions in the U.K and U.S., sees the pandemic forcing banks to reallocate budgets to innovation, and pushing them to look to fintechs “to bolster the customer experience” that address needs beyond banking.

Report: Nearly half of Canadian VC firms have seen a decline in deal flow during COVID-19 (BetaKit) Published on: July 9, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business

In Canada, 48 per cent of venture capital (VC) firms have seen a minimum 25 per cent decline in deal flow during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to new survey data from OMERS Ventures.
Thirty-six per cent of Canadian firms surveyed reported having done a fully remote deal during the COVID-19 pandemic, while 64 per cent said they had not.
“Getting to know founders and their teams by spending time together in person has traditionally played an important role in the investment process for us and many VCs,” said Damien Steel, head of ventures and managing partner at OMERS Ventures. “As our industry navigates the unconventional circumstances created by the pandemic … there’s been a general realization that those processes are in need of a change.”

The retail bankruptcies and store closings just keep coming. For some merchants, the pandemic was ‘the straw that broke the camel’s back.’ (Chicago Tribune) Published on: July 8, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

Many of America’s storied retailers already were facing big challenges, but the COVID-19 pandemic has hastened difficult decisions that will mean job losses and empty storefronts in the Chicago area and elsewhere.
About 45 per cent of people said their spending in stores will return to normal as soon as COVID-19-related restrictions lift, according to a June survey by 451 Research, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Denim retailer Lucky Brand Dungarees filed for bankruptcy July 3 with plans to close 13 of its stores, including its Michigan Avenue location.
On Wednesday, Manhattan-based men’s clothier Brooks Brothers filed for bankruptcy and will permanently close more than a quarter of its 200 stores, including a Loop location in the Rookery on LaSalle Street.

Breaking down the fiscal ‘snapshot’: Employers on deck for post-pandemic economic recovery (The Logic) Published on: July 8, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business

The federal government says Canada’s economy would have contracted by more than 10 per cent in 2020 if not for its emergency spending to combat the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic—and it’s planning to spend even more money to help employers to kickstart the country’s recovery.
Ottawa has pledged $212 billion in direct support, equivalent to almost 14 per cent of GDP, according to the economic and fiscal “snapshot” Finance Minister Bill Morneau delivered in the House of Commons Wednesday in lieu of a budget for the 2020–2021 fiscal year.
The government is projecting a $343.2-billion deficit in 2020–21, accounting for both its spending and the “severe deterioration in the economic outlook.”

As Big Airlines Retrench, Some Carriers Detect an Opening (WSJ) Published on: July 8, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

In times of crisis, low-cost discount carriers often benefit, while the bigger, network carriers—with typically fatter organizations and higher costs—are forced to retrench.
That is happening again, but on steroids, both because of the scale of today’s crisis and the unusual way demand for tickets is starting to return as lockdowns loosen.
As economies emerge from deep freeze, though, some leisure travel is returning. That is partly because of pent-up demand among fliers eager to get away again.

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