COVID-19 Monitor

Last Updated:October 15, 2020

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Second wave (Reuters Breaking Views) Published on: July 13, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

Analysts expect a 44 per cent year-on-year decline for S&P 500 Index earnings in the period, according to Refinitiv data.
Even the 71 per cent rebound in earnings they now foresee for the second quarter of 2021 will not quite bring them back to where they were in April to June of 2019.
But next year the comparisons turn positive again, and for the full year 2021 the forecasters reckon 500 of the largest U.S. companies will – just – be ahead of 2019 on profit, and also ahead on revenue after a 5 per cent drop in the top line for this year compared with last.

Not the last pandemic: Investing now to reimagine public-health systems (McKinsey) Published on: July 13, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed overlooked weaknesses in the world’s infectious-disease-surveillance and -response capabilities—weaknesses that have persisted in spite of the obvious harm they caused during prior outbreaks.
The world has seen repeated instances of what former World Bank president Jim Kim has called a cycle of “panic, neglect, panic, neglect,” whereby the terror created by a disease outbreak recedes, attention shifts, and we let our vital outbreak-fighting mechanisms atrophy.
The economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic could cost between $9 trillion and $33 trillion—many times more than the projected cost of preventing future pandemics.

New intimacy: COVID-19 offers a chance to take things slow (Japan Times) Published on: July 12, 2020 | Category: Global Response

According to a recent survey conducted by popular dating app Pairs, 30 per cent of respondents between ages 20 and 39 said that their desire to partner up has increased during the pandemic.
Not only that, but the same survey also revealed that having a similar moral compass and sharing values is integral; 18 per cent of respondents stated their “view on love has changed,” with some even saying they “don’t feel comfortable dating somebody who didn’t ‘stay home’ while the Japanese government has advised people to do so,” despite compliance being voluntary.
Taking on the challenge of the coronavirus, that app has recently released a new Video Date feature, allowing romance-seeking singles to woo love interests via screen, rather than face to face.
Without the potential pressure and nerves in meeting in real life (and minus the threat of infection), video dating has allowed couples to get to know each other from the comfort of their own home.

Coronavirus testing czar: Lockdowns in hotspots “should be on the table” (Axios) Published on: July 12, 2020 | Category: Global Response

The Trump administration’s coronavirus testing coordinator Adm. Brett Giroir said on ABC’s “This Week” that “everything” — including the “stringent lockdowns” that many governors implemented in March and April — should be “on the table” in states where new infections are skyrocketing.
Giroir stressed that every American should wear a mask when they go out in public, and that states where cases are surging need to close restaurants and bars as soon as possible.
“We do expect and are planning for and are surging people and everything else — but we expect hospitalizations to go up,” Giroir said. “At the peak in April, we were at about 85,000. Right now, we’re at 63,000. But we do expect those to go up.”

Do You Dare Switch Jobs in the Coronavirus Economy? (WSJ) Published on: July 12, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

The thought of confessing an issue at home to a prospective employer and pleading for flexibility can feel risky, especially as the economy teeters.
Overall, more Americans are staying put these days, if they can. Some 2.1 million Americans quit their jobs in May, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a 41 per cent drop from the same month a year before.
A recent survey of executives conducted by search firm Salveson Stetson Group found that 64 per cent weren’t interested in making a career move during the pandemic.

The Role of Cognitive Dissonance in the Pandemic (The Atlantic) Published on: July 12, 2020 | Category: Leadership

Dissonance is most painful when evidence strikes at the heart of how we see ourselves—when it threatens our belief that we are kind, ethical, competent, or smart.
Today, as we confront the many unknowns of the coronavirus pandemic, all of us are facing desperately difficult decisions.
The way we answer these questions has momentous implications for our health as individuals and for the health of our communities. Even more important, and far less obvious, is that because of the unconscious motivation to reduce dissonance, the way we answer these questions has repercussions for how we behave after making our initial decision.

Disney World reopens as coronavirus cases surge in Florida (AP) Published on: July 11, 2020 | Category: Global Response

Walt Disney World’s Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom are reopening Saturday, while Epcot and Disney’s Hollywood Studios will follow four days later.
The reopening comes as a huge surge of Floridians have tested positive for the new coronavirus in recent weeks. On Saturday, there were about 10,000 new cases reported, according to state statistics.
Disney’s new rules include mandatory masks and social distancing. Visitors will need reservations to enter a park, and they won’t be allowed to hop between parks.
Both visitors and employees will receive temperature checks when they enter. Fireworks shows and parades have been suspended to prevent drawing too many people together.

Reopened schools in Europe and Asia have largely avoided coronavirus outbreaks. They have lessons for the U.S. (Washington Post) Published on: July 11, 2020 | Category: Global Response

From Belgium to Japan, schools are abandoning certain social distancing measures, such as alternate-day schedules or extra space between desks.
They have decided that part-time or voluntary school attendance, supplemented by distance learning, is not enough — that full classrooms are preferable to leaving kids at home.
Public health officials and researchers say they have not detected much coronavirus transmission among students or significant spikes in community spread as a result of schools being in session — at least for students under 12.

The great PPE panic: How the pandemic caught Canada with its stockpiles down (CBC) Published on: July 11, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business

When the pandemic hit, Canada found itself at the end of a long global queue for essential equipment.
In fact, Canada still doesn’t have the PPE it needs to keep those essential workers safe.
Canadian PPE stockpile levels were woefully low when the pandemic hit; materials were allowed to expire without being used or even donated, and then ended up in landfills.

The world is drinking less coffee while office workers stay home (Honolulu Star-Advertiser) Published on: July 11, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

Shutdowns for cafes and restaurants — which typically account for about 25 per cent of demand — were overwhelming, and it could be a while before things pick up again.
“We believe that consumers will move down price points, and turn more to cheaper, instant coffee, as they tighten their belts amidst the gloomy economic outlook,” Taohai Lin, a consumer and retail analyst at Fitch Solutions.
Consumers will continue to embrace home brew and instant coffee, both because they will still avoid heading out to cafes, and also because it is generally a cheaper alternative.

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