COVID-19 Monitor

Last Updated:October 15, 2020

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Closing the $30 trillion gap: Acting now to manage fiscal deficits during and beyond the COVID-19 crisis (McKinsey) Published on: July 16, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

In response to the COVID-19 crisis, governments around the world have ramped up their relief and stimulus spending to unprecedented levels—just as tax revenues have slumped.
The result could be a worldwide $10 trillion deficit in 2020 and a cumulative shortfall of up to $30 trillion by 2023.
We estimate that they will seek to raise debt equivalent to an additional 20 to 25 per cent of global GDP over today’s level, as a direct result of the crisis.
Our analysis suggests that higher levels of sovereign debt will add as much as $2.5 trillion a year to the debt-servicing costs of governments over the next decade.

The risks of keeping schools closed far outweigh the benefits (The Economist) Published on: July 16, 2020 | Category: Global Response

All around the world, children’s minds are going to waste. As covid-19 surged in early April, more than 90 per cent of pupils were shut out of school.
Studies suggest that under-18s are a third to a half less likely to catch the disease. Those under ten, according to British figures, are a thousand times less likely to die than someone aged between 70 and 79.
Perhaps 465m children being offered online classes cannot easily make use of them because they lack an internet connection.

‘New reality’ of workplace includes virtual health care, enhanced mental-health support (Benefits Canada) Published on: July 16, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business

The coronavirus pandemic is dramatically affecting workplaces, employers and employees across Canada, according to a new survey by the International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans.
While a third of surveyed employers said they already offered telehealth or telemedicine before the pandemic, an additional 19 per cent said they added it during the crisis and another 17 per cent said they’re considering doing so.
The survey also found more than half of Canadian employers have either added (28 per cent) or are considering adding (24 per cent) elements to their existing mental-health benefits.

85% of Canadians believe fraudulent CERB users should be fined: Ipsos poll (Global News) Published on: July 16, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business

Canadians acknowledge the benefit of the emergency grant program during the COVID-19 pandemic, but want to see more done to combat fraudulent claims, a new poll suggests.
The Ipsos poll, conducted exclusively for Global News between July 8 and 10, found that while the vast majority of Canadians believe the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) has helped prevent financial disaster for many (86 per cent), there are increasing concerns about fraud and misuse.
The poll found that 63 per cent of respondents agree that the CERB is being misused by many Canadians.
Asked whether the CERB should be discontinued “at the earliest possible opportunity,” 43 per cent of Canadians aged 18 to 34 said they agreed compared to 58 per cent of Canadians aged over 55.

How is the virtual recruitment experiment going? (FT) Published on: July 16, 2020 | Category: Global Response

As offices remain closed, teams are working with new colleagues they have never met in person.
As the vast majority of knowledge workers have been forced to work from home, interest in remote working opportunities has spiked. From March 1 to May 23, LinkedIn saw a 160 per cent rise in the volume of its users searching specifically for remote working opportunities.
This has been mirrored by a rapid shift in attitudes among workers. More than two-thirds now favour some form of remote working policy, according to Skillcast — and employers are increasingly at ease with the idea.

Pandemic, Growing Need Strain U.S. Food Bank Operations (WSJ) Published on: July 16, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

Demand for the free vegetables, milk and canned goods on offer here has surged since the coronavirus pandemic torpedoed the U.S. economy, closing businesses and thrusting millions out of work.
Hunger-relief organization Feeding America, a nationwide network of 200 food banks and 60,000 food pantries and meal programs, estimates the pandemic could push an additional 17 million people into what it calls food insecurity this year.
Donations of items like rice and soup dried up, forcing many food banks to buy the goods instead and compete with retailers and other food banks.

How to Get People to Actually Use Contact-Tracing Apps (HBR) Published on: July 15, 2020 | Category: Global Response, Leadership

Most platforms fail because they never build a critical mass of engaged users.
Unless we fundamentally rethink how Covid-19 contact-tracing apps are being designed, launched, and scaled, the vast majority will suffer the same fate.
A mobile contact-tracing app can track whom each user has been in proximity to and can then alert all affected users when one of them confirms positive for infection.
Some contact-tracing apps can also warn users when an infected person is nearby, preventing possible infection, or even track whether an infected user is following social-distancing guidelines.

Ben Bernanke: I Was Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Save the States. (NY Times) Published on: July 15, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

In the coming months, the actions taken by both the public and the private sectors will have economic and public health repercussions that will reverberate for years.
Our state governments serve a dual role as providers of critical services — health care, public safety, education and mass transit — as well as large employers. Many states, including New Jersey, are responsible for tens of thousands of jobs and the paychecks that go with them.
Many other states face ominous budgetary outlooks, too, implying the need for draconian reductions in essential services to state residents and large potential job cuts.
Furloughs have already begun in New Jersey. Since February, state and local governments collectively have laid off close to 1.5 million workers.

Most Canadians support shutdowns over 2nd coronavirus wave: Ipsos poll (Global News) Published on: July 15, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business, Economic Impact

The survey, conducted by Ipsos for exclusively Global News between July 8 and July 10, found 77 per cent of Canadians anticipate there will be a second wave of the novel coronavirus, despite efforts to stem its spread.
Ipsos Public Affairs CEO Darrell Bricker told Global News this number is so high because Canadians are “watching the news closely.”
“They’re treating it almost like emergency broadcasts and something that’s been very consistent coming out of our health care professionals, and the people who manage our health care system, and our politicians is that we need to prepare ourselves for a second wave, so that message is getting through,” he said.
According to the survey, 93 per cent of Canadians feel it would be too risky to travel to the U.S. this summer, and 85 per cent said the Canada-U.S. border should remain closed until at least the end of 2020.

Consumer Appetite for Cars, Homes Bolsters U.S. Economy (WSJ) Published on: July 15, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

Historically low interest rates are luring in auto and home buyers, many of whom have higher incomes and firmer job security than low-wage, service-sector workers hardest-hit during the recession, economists and industry experts say.
Incomes also could take a hit if the federal government doesn’t continue providing expanded unemployment benefits to the millions of people still out of work because of the crisis, he added.
Solid spending on durable goods—typically more expensive products designed to last more than three years—differs from previous downturns, when consumers sharply pulled back on these larger purchases while continuing to spend at service-sector businesses, according to findings from a Harvard-based nonprofit research group.

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