COVID-19 Monitor

Last Updated:October 15, 2020

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Winning Streak of Big Cities Fades With 2020 Crises (WSJ) Published on: July 20, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

Three major shocks now threaten to upend that urban renaissance: The coronavirus is preying on densely packed places; anger over policing is producing social unrest reminiscent of earlier eras; and strained city and state budgets could prolong their economic pain.
The road to recovery stands to be difficult and long, and will need to address, among other things, housing affordability and homelessness—problems that had been threatening the urban resurgence even before current crises. The end result could be that growth shifts from big cities toward smaller ones and suburbs.
The common denominator for star cities was that they drew clusters of educated workers who shared ideas and hopped from job to job. “There are inherent advantages in terms of productivity and innovation for firms that locate in those cities,” said Enrico Moretti, professor at the University of California at Berkeley.

Canadians feeling better about personal debt levels than they have in three years: poll (The Globe and Mail) Published on: July 20, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business, Economic Impact

Canadian consumers are more upbeat about their personal debt than they have been for three years, despite the recession brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, a poll has found.
MNP says it saw 51 per cent fewer consumers file for insolvency in May, compared to a year ago.
COVID-19 dramatically altered consumer spending since restaurants, theatres, malls and other bastions of discretionary spending were closed.

CERB Repayments Could Cause a Poverty Crisis, Advocates Say (Vice) Published on: July 20, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business, Global Response

Many low-income or homeless Canadians applied and received the CERB benefit without qualifying. Advocates say the government should give them amnesty.
As of July 12, more than eight million people had applied, and nearly $60 billion had been paid out.
It’s not yet clear how the government will go after repayment money. Thorhaug worries it’ll be taken from people’s tax returns, eliminating a much-needed income supplement for folks living well below the poverty line.

C.E.O.s Say ‘It’s a Grind’ (NY Times) Published on: July 20, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

“It’s a grind on the organization’s psyche,” said Brian Niccol of Chipotle. He and other leaders also bemoaned a lack of consistent communication from the government.
C.E.O.s are losing confidence in the recovery. “I’m less optimistic today than I was 30 days ago,” Arne Sorenson of Marriott International said.
Lobbying over the coming pandemic aid bill has begun in earnest. Groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce are beseeching Senate Republicans to accept a stimulus package that’s bigger than the $1 trillion they’re currently considering.

REI Faces Staff Backlash Over Response to Covid-19 Cases (NY Times) Published on: July 19, 2020 | Category: Global Response

The co-op has raced to respond to criticism from store workers about how it has handled coronavirus cases at reopened locations.
“Some employees wanted transparency above what C.D.C. guidelines and our policies directed, so we made that adjustment,” said Mr. Discher, an REI spokesperson.
Retailers across the country are having to adjust to the surging pandemic and its effects on stores and employees, but the criticism of REI is especially notable given its corporate ethos.

America’s hidden economic crisis: Widespread wage cuts (Politico) Published on: July 19, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

Millions of Americans who managed to hold onto their jobs amid the coronavirus pandemic have seen their incomes drop as employers slashed wages and hours to weather what they expected to be a short-term shutdown.
“The speed of a recovery is really directly aligned to how consumers are behaving,” said Jane Oates, a former Labor Department official who is now president of the nonprofit WorkingNation.
Growth in consumer service spending is expected to halt in July and August, Goldman Sachs said in an analysis on Friday.
It’s too early in the crisis to know for sure whether the pay cuts are here to stay, economists say, though it’s difficult to expect wages to rise while so much of the economy remains shuttered and while consumers are too concerned about the coronavirus to resume regular behavior and spending.

Resurgence of virus and lockdowns threatens US economic recovery (Straits Times) Published on: July 19, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

For months, the prevailing wisdom among investors, Trump administration officials and many economic forecasters was that after plunging into recession this spring, the country’s recovery would accelerate in late summer and take off in the fall as the virus receded, restrictions on commerce loosened, and consumers reverted to more normal spending patterns.
Expanded benefits for unemployed workers, which research shows have been propping up consumer spending throughout the spring and early summer, are scheduled to expire at the end of July, while more than 18 million Americans continue to claim unemployment.
Only 16 per cent of all workers with a young child have a nonworking spouse at home who could plausibly care for children who are not in school in order for a spouse to report to work.

Coronavirus exposures reported on 2 more flights through Vancouver (Global News) Published on: July 19, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business, Global Response

The B.C. Centre for Disease Control is notifying the public of two new coronavirus exposures on flights in or out of the Vancouver International Airport.
On Thursday, B.C.’s provincial health officer expressed frustration with airlines over their collection of passenger data.
Dr. Bonnie Henry said she wants to see airlines collect names and phone numbers for all passengers, information she says is often not included on flight manifests.

U.S. Companies Lose Hope for Quick Rebound From Covid-19 (WSJ) Published on: July 19, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

Big U.S. companies are deciding March and April moves won’t cut it.
Executives who were bracing for a monthslong disruption are now thinking in terms of years.
Both Delta and United Airlines Holdings Inc. said they would scale back their ambitions to fly more later this summer.
Still, some economists say the data obscure the reality on the ground, where consumers are increasingly fearful of the economic impact of a new surge of Covid-19 cases in much of the U.S.

Retail bankruptcies ‘tip of the iceberg’, says Levi Strauss boss (FT) Published on: July 19, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

A resurgence of coronavirus in the US is threatening to further upset the sector.
Mr Bergh said he would prefer to have too little merchandise than be stuck with unsold goods.
Denim has declined sharply in line with the broader apparel category, and US clothing store sales fell 23 per cent in June from the level last year.
“It’s payback for highly levered companies,” he said, adding he saw a particular opportunity in the women’s business. “Most of the women’s speciality denim brands are relatively small and may not have the financial wherewithal to make it through this.”

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