COVID-19 Monitor

Last Updated:October 15, 2020

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Does a Raise or Remote Work Sound Better? (WSJ) Published on: July 24, 2020 | Category: Global Response, Leadership

Telecommuting is emerging as a coveted perk. Workers and their companies see the benefits, but how will they feel in 2021?
Where the promise of on-site haircuts and bountiful buffets once drew talent to Silicon Valley, and the promise of part-time hours once attracted working parents to flexible companies, staying home has emerged as the hot corporate perk.
An experiment that Dr. Bloom did with workers in China in 2009 and 2010 finds that intense loneliness tended to set in by the ninth month.
He declares remote work a 2019 perk, a 2020 necessity and a “2022 attribute which some people are going to like and others are going to loathe.”

Canadian banks face rising loan losses as government COVID-19 support programs taper off (The Globe and Mail) Published on: July 24, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business

Canada’s Big Six banks face growing loan losses as government support programs wind down and loan-deferral and interest-rate relief programs for consumers come to a halt.
Despite the economic plunge, consumers have so far remained largely current with their debt obligations. Personal insolvencies
are below average and credit payments have remained stable.
“Once government support measures wind down, consumer loan charge-offs will rise as workers struggle to adapt to the postpandemic economy,” said a report published Thursday by Moody’s Investors Service.

Retail e-commerce and COVID-19: How online shopping opened doors while many were closing (Statistics Canada) Published on: July 24, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business, Economic Impact

From February to May 2020, total retail sales fell 17.9%. However, retail e-commerce sales nearly doubled (+99.3%), with some retailers relying more on this method of sale.
Year over year, e-commerce sales more than doubled—with a 110.8% increase compared with May 2019.
From February to April 2020, only the food and beverage subsector experienced an increase in in-store sales (+3.3%) and a surge in e-commerce (+107.0%).
In contrast, other retail trade subsectors—such as furniture and home furnishings stores (-69.6%); sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (-79.0%); and clothing and clothing accessories stores (-84.2%)—saw much sharper declines in in-store sales from February to April 2020.

What Safe Shopping Looks Like During the Pandemic (HBR) Published on: July 24, 2020 | Category: Global Response, Leadership

To limit the spread of Covid-19, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that individuals practice social distancing. When local conditions allow for retail stores to open, they confront a variety of guidelines that vary by state.
These variations are due to differences in the prevalence of the virus, diversity in local attitudes toward social distancing, and political forces. It is also difficult to formulate and implement guidelines that apply to all types of stores because of variations in store layout, customer flow, and the willingness of customers to comply with social-distancing advice.
To maximize efficiency and throughput, a store would look like a well-run manufacturing line: Customers would arrive at designated times and shop at a designated pace in order to maintain social distancing. Alas, in real life, customers choose their own arrival times and pace, injecting variability into the system.

Governments must beware the lure of free money (The Economist) Published on: July 23, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

The first is the jaw-dropping scale of today’s government borrowing, and the seemingly limitless potential for yet more. The IMF predicts that rich countries will borrow 17 per cent of their combined gdp this year to fund $4.2trn in spending and tax cuts designed to keep the economy going.
The result is that long-term interest rates stay low even while public-debt issuance soars.
The state’s growing role as capital-allocator-in-chief is the third aspect of the new age. To see off a credit crunch, the Federal Reserve, acting with the Treasury, has waded into financial markets, buying up the bonds of at&t, Apple and even Coca-Cola, and lending directly to everyone from bond dealers to non-profit hospitals.
The absence of upward pressure on prices means there is no immediate need to slow the growth of central-bank balance-sheets or to raise short-term interest rates from their floor around zero.

Coronavirus: California unemployment claims climb to worst levels in nearly three months (The Mercury News) Published on: July 23, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

Unemployment claims in California climbed to their highest levels in nearly three months amid fears of benefit reductions for workers and fresh rounds of business shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, federal officials reported Thursday.
“The new unemployment claims show large scale new layoffs following the renewed economic lockdowns in the state over the past two weeks,” said Michael Bernick, a Milken Institute fellow and former director of the EDD.
Nationwide, unemployment claims rose for the first time in three weeks, totaling 1.42 million for the most recent reporting period.

Why supermarkets are struggling to profit from the online grocery boom (FT) Published on: July 23, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

In the UK, ecommerce took two decades to go from zero to around 7 per cent of total grocery sales. It then went from 7 per cent to 13 per cent in about eight weeks.
But there is only one problem with the surge in online sales: many supermarket chains are struggling to make a sizeable profit — and in some cases, any profit — from ecommerce because of the huge commitment in resources that it requires.
No one expects online grocery shopping to return to pre-Covid levels. Research by UBS in the UK found that 71 per cent of respondents said they will shop online “as often or more after the Covid -19 situation improves”.
Based on other survey evidence, Bain estimates that between 35 per cent and 45 per cent of the recent increase in online sales will turn out to be permanent.

Maybe he’s born with it, maybe it helps with video calls: Makeup for men finds a niche (Washington Post) Published on: July 23, 2020 | Category: Global Response

How a new cosmetics brand is capitalizing on changing gender norms and the desire to look Zoom-ready.
The company aims to convince men who had never considered stopping by a MAC counter or sitting through a YouTube tutorial that makeup is an option for subduing dark circles and razor burn.
But with the global cosmetics market projected to reach nearly $430 billion by 2022, according to Allied Market Research, the ground is shifting. And industry experts believe men will be more likely to buy concealer at a drugstore, or online, than brave a trip to Ulta or Sephora.

Swapping Shopping Carts for a Laptop, Online Buyers Say They Are Hooked for Good (Business Wire Manufacturing News) Published on: July 23, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

Consumers have rushed to online shopping, a “seismic shift” that will steadily grow if retailers provide convenient deliveries and environmentally friendly packaging, according to a DS Smith survey with important cues for businesses eager to flourish in a post-lockdown world.
The national survey by DS Smith, a leading paper, packaging and recycling company, found that the pandemic may have permanently changed Americans’ buying habits, with 85 per cent of online shoppers saying they will continue to shop online at the same level or more, even after stay-at-home rules are lifted.
Nearly two-thirds of consumers polled say they are shopping online more than before the coronavirus outbreak, chiefly because it’s a safe and convenient way to get what they need.

Credit starts to tighten as job losses remain high (Detroit Free Press) Published on: July 22, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

As pandemic emergency relief draws to a close for some renters and others, many struggling consumers could be tempted to cover a few bills by pulling out some old, little-used credit cards.
Banks have been reducing credit card limits and closing accounts altogether for millions of consumers.
Many credit card issuers had been working with consumers to let them skip minimum payments for two months early in the pandemic, said Kristen Holt, president and CEO of Farmington Hills-based GreenPath Financial Wellness.

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