COVID-19 Monitor

Last Updated:October 15, 2020

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Pandemic Lays Bare U.S. Reliance on China for Drugs (WSJ) Published on: August 5, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

The shortage of a simple, over-the-counter painkiller shows how dependent the U.S. has become on China for vital pharmaceutical supplies.
India, the world’s largest producer of generic medicines, depends on China for 80% of its active pharmaceutical ingredients, or API, the chemicals that give drugs their medicinal properties, according to industry data and Indian companies.
Overall, China makes nearly half of the planet’s API, according to Britain’s Medicine and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency and pharmaceutical analysts.

Reimagining the $9 trillion tourism economy—what will it take? (McKinsey) Published on: August 5, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

Tourism made up 10 per cent of global GDP in 2019 and was worth almost $9 trillion, making the sector nearly three times larger than agriculture.
COVID-19 has caused an unprecedented crisis for the tourism industry. International tourist arrivals are projected to plunge by 60 to 80 per cent in 2020, and tourism spending is not likely to return to precrisis levels until 2024. This puts as many as 120 million jobs at risk.
New Zealand has offered an NZ $15,000 (US $10,000) grant per SME to cover wages, for example, while Singapore has instituted an 8 per cent cash grant on the gross monthly wages of local employees. Japan has waived the debt of small companies where income dropped more than 20 per cent.

Four trends from the bank earnings season (FT) Published on: August 5, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

Government support schemes have helped suppress customer defaults on both sides of the Atlantic. Nonetheless, this year banks have booked tens of billions of dollars of provisions to cover an expected rise in defaults amid a rise in unemployment and uptick in corporate bankruptcies.
Led by Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, fixed income revenues more than doubled in the second quarter at the six largest American banks, following a gain of about a third in the first three months of the year.
The top six US banks managed to grow their capital marginally in the first half of 2020, despite taking a whopping $60bn of loan loss provisions during the period.

One-third of Sask. residents would get COVID-19 vaccine ASAP: survey (Saskatoon StarPhoenix) Published on: August 4, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business, Global Response

Among provinces, British Columbia and Ontario residents are the most inclined to be vaccinated, while the poll suggests residents in Saskatchewan are more hesitant.
The Angus Reid Institute survey, published Tuesday, found half of Canadians say they have no reservations about receiving a jab as soon as it becomes available, while 32 per cent are willing to vaccinate but will wait a while.
Seventy-six per cent of those who say they will wait to get the vaccine also say they are worried about side effects, according to the poll.
Fourteen per cent say that they will not get immunized, while eight per cent say they are not sure.

Nearly three out of four Canadians say virtual conferencing tools an ‘excellent’ alternative to interacting in person (National Post) Published on: August 4, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, nearly three out of four Canadians say virtual conferencing tools are an “excellent” alternative to interacting with people in person.
According to a survey produced by Leger Opinion (LEO) for the Association for Canadian Studies (ASC), 72 per cent of Canadians agreed with the statement that videoconferencing is an excellent alternative to interacting with people.
We’re actually creating a generation who will grow up interacting on Zoom.

Tax and spend is the new economic orthodoxy (FT) Published on: August 4, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response

Since March, governments have rightly embraced enormous deficits to limit the collapse in economic activity, protect incomes and sustain employer-employee relationships. As a result, public debt burdens are rising everywhere to levels not seen for many decades, or even ever before.
And even this choice — whether to be “fiscally responsible” with debt or with taxes — is only available in a best-case scenario.
Some express the hope — or the fear — that governments could coax their central banks into inflating away the debt instead. That is theoretically possible.

When Covid Subsided, Israel Reopened Its Schools. It Didn’t Go Well. (NY Times) Published on: August 4, 2020 | Category: Global Response

Confident it had beaten the coronavirus and desperate to reboot a devastated economy, the Israeli government invited the entire student body back in late May.
Within days, infections were reported at a Jerusalem high school, which quickly mushroomed into the largest outbreak in a single school in Israel, possibly the world.
The lesson, experts say, is that even communities that have gotten the spread of the virus under control need to take strict precautions when reopening schools. Smaller classes, mask wearing, keeping desks six feet apart and providing adequate ventilation, they say, are likely to be crucial until a vaccine is available.

Pandemic stalled growth at Canada’s most promising tech firms, analysis shows (The Logic) Published on: August 4, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business, Economic Impact

Funding has plummeted and hiring stalled at Canada’s top private tech firms since mid-March compared to the same period in 2019, as the COVID-19 pandemic roils all sectors of the economy.
Employment at the 60 companies on the Narwhal List—tech firms deemed fastest-growing in Canada before the pandemic—dropped one per cent since the start of March, compared to an 18 per cent annual growth rate on average over the past two years.
While the numbers reflect a relatively sharp contraction in the tech industry, they suggest companies in the space are faring better in some respects than the economy at large.

Coronavirus cases are climbing in Midwest states with previously low infections (Washington Post) Published on: August 3, 2020 | Category: Global Response

The novel coronavirus is surging in several Midwestern states that had not previously seen high infection rates while average daily deaths remained elevated Monday in Southern and Western states hit with a resurgence of the disease after lifting some restrictions earlier this summer.
Experts also see worrying trends emerging in major East Coast and Midwest cities, and they anticipate major outbreaks in college towns as classes resume in August.
Tailored Brands, which also owns JoS. A. Bank, K&G and Moores, filed for Chapter 11 protection on Sunday evening, the same day that department store chain Lord & Taylor did so. They are among about a dozen large retailers that have tipped into bankruptcy as pandemic-fueled store closures sent sales plummeting.

Global Factories Increase Production but Overseas Demand Remains Soft (WSJ) Published on: August 3, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact

Factories across the U.S., Europe and parts of Asia increased production in July, but the upswing was held back by weak global trade and suggested a long and precarious road ahead for the global economy.
In the U.S., two surveys of purchasing managers showed improved manufacturing activity.
The data suggest that easing lockdown restrictions may not be enough to get the global economy back on track. Governments, especially those with export-oriented business models, may need to find a way to stimulate domestic demand to offset lingering weaknesses in international demand for foreign-made goods.

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