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COVID-19 Monitor

Last Updated:October 15, 2020

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Employers Cast Wary Eye on Trump Payroll-Tax Deferral (WSJ) Published on: August 11, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response
  • Employers considering President Trump’s plan to allow deferred payment of payroll taxes face a series of costs, uncertainties and headaches.
  • Employers’ biggest worry: If they stop withholding taxes without any guarantee that Congress will actually forgive any deferred payments, they could find themselves on the hook. That is a particular risk in cases where employees change jobs and employers can’t withhold more taxes from later paychecks to catch up on missed payments.
  • Several large employers, including Walmart Inc., United Parcel Service Inc. and Home Depot Inc., said Monday that it was too early to say what they would do.
Leading into the Post-Covid Recovery (HBR) Published on: August 11, 2020 | Category: Leadership
  • When governments relax restrictions and begin stimulating economic growth, the recovery phase of the Covid-19 crisis starts unfolding for businesses.
  • Intuitively, I would have expected leaders to be driven by the victory rush that naturally follows when the tension of the regression phase is released. But many report having mixed emotions. Their sense of optimism and clarity is laced with withdrawal, loss, and doubt.
  • Further, even though it is an overstretch to compare the emotions of the recovery phase to post-traumatic stress disorder, there are similarities. One of the most common reactions from soldiers returning from battle is that everyday life seems absurdly inconsequential and insignificant compared to the combat situations they have left behind.
US online shopping forecast to beat 2019 total by October (FT) Published on: August 11, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact
  • American shoppers are on course to surpass total online spending in 2019 as soon as early October, analysts forecast, though the explosive growth in pandemic-driven ecommerce is beginning to slow as parts of the country attempt to reopen.
  • Data from Adobe’s Digital Economic Index report suggest Americans have now spent $435bn online since the start of the year — with analysts estimating almost $100bn in extra spend moving online due to Covid-19 lockdowns.
  • “We’ve just trained the consumer to shop a different way,” said Sonia Lapinsky from retail consultancy AlixPartners. “They’re now comfortable at home. They’re used to buying things without ever having to leave their house.”
The Unequal Future of Consumption (The New Republic) Published on: August 10, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response
  • Shopping malls in Stockholm are half empty; H&M sales fell by half in Denmark and Finland, but even in Sweden, without a lockdown, they dropped by a third.
  • In the United States, 6 percent of total consumer spending is on restaurants and hotels alone, and another 4 percent goes to recreation.
  • In France, in early April, online sales of food were up by 98 percent—but next came rural shops (37 percent) and urban mini-marts (superettes; 25 percent), while the big hypermarkets saw a fall of 3 percent.
Graduate jobs drop by 60.3% since last year (The London Economic) Published on: August 10, 2020 | Category: Global Response
  • The number of graduate jobs being advertised has fallen by 60.3 per cent year-on-year, with industries such as marketing, construction and recruitment experiencing even larger drops.
  • In certain industries, such as media, that has increased significantly more – with 51.1 people applying for every job in the industry compared to 22.1 in the same period last year.
  • “The survey data also suggests that the redundancy activity will be broad-based, with IT, manufacturing and construction sectors the most likely to be affected,” CIPD’s senior labour market analyst Gerwyn Davies said in the report.
  • More than four in 10 (42 per cent) had applied recruitment freezes, the sharpest examples coming in the hospitality sector (65 per cent), business services (54 per cent) and in IT (52 per cent).
New survey reveals most popular federal COVID-19 support programs for businesses (BetaKit) Published on: August 10, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business
  • The survey found that while 60 percent of participants were using the $40,000 Canada Emergency Business Account (CEBA), and 55 percent were using the 75 percent emergency wage subsidy, only 15 percent were using the CECRA.
  • The survey also found 20 percent of respondents rated the CECRA as very or somewhat helpful, far lower than the 69 percent and 67 percent that rated the CEBA and emergency wage subsidy as very or somewhat helpful, respectively.
  • A survey conducted by the group over June found 41 percent of small businesses who believe they qualify for the CECRA said their landlord has not applied to the program.
US faces inflation threat as money supply rockets (FT) Published on: August 10, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact
  • The aggressive monetary and fiscal response to the coronavirus crisis in the US could trigger a burst of inflation that the Federal Reserve might struggle to control, according to Morgan Stanley.
  • “While we are likely to experience big imbalances in the real economy for several more quarters, if not years, the most powerful leading indicator for inflation has already shown its hand — money supply, or M2,” said Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson.
  • For equities, faster inflation usually tends to be positive because their earnings rise with higher prices, and fixed-coupon bonds become less attractive.
  • But there could be a shake-up of the stock market leaderboard, said Mr Wilson. “The problem may be that equity market leadership is skewed toward deflationary winners, making any sudden surges in inflation quite disruptive to portfolios,” he warned.
How is COVID-19 affecting US trade? (Brookings) Published on: August 10, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response
  • Overall, exports in the first half of the year were down 16 percent compared to last year. That’s more of a decline than we’ve seen in GDP.
  • Two of our big exports, aircraft and automobile parts, are down 30 to 40 percent.
  • If you look at the export side, again with Canada and Mexico, and those are our two biggest partners, our exports are down about 20 percent. I think this just reflects this serious recession throughout all of North America. But in the first half of the year, our exports to China were only down five percent.
Amazon and Mall Operator Look at Turning Sears, J.C. Penney Stores Into Fulfillment Centers (WSJ) Published on: August 9, 2020 | Category: Economic Impact, Global Response
  • The largest mall owner in the U.S. has been in talks with Amazon.com Inc., the company many retailers denounce as the mall industry’s biggest disrupter, to take over space left by ailing department stores.
  • Simon Property Group Inc. has been exploring with Amazon the possibility of turning some of the property owner’s anchor department stores into Amazon distribution hubs, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • For Amazon, a deal with Simon would be consistent with its efforts to add more distribution hubs near residential areas to speed up the crucial last mile of delivery.
COVID-19: 8 million Canadians rethinking retirement due to pandemic, report suggests (Sudbury.com) Published on: August 9, 2020 | Category: Canadian Business, Economic Impact
  • A whopping two million Canadians have stopped making regular contributions to their retirement savings, according to the study, which extrapolates the data from a survey of 1,500 Canadians and Canadian population data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
  • While 54 per cent of adults planning to retire felt confident in their ability to do so before the pandemic, just 39 per cent feel that way now, according to the survey.
  • The few who are considering anticipating retirement amid the pandemic, on the other hand, said they “realized that they were looking forward to retirement, or they want to spend time doing other things that are more important to them than work,” according to the report.
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